Growing up in the 1990’s, most of us were infatuated with the Seattle grunge music scene.  You can say I’ve taken that to the extreme, though.  I think I’ve seen the movie “Singles” over 50 times.  I went through a period of my life debating whether Kyra Sedgwick was my ultimate woman (Note: I was 14, chubby, and very, very single).  I loved every part of it, and I still do.

So all this has caused me to construct a theory in my life: anything and everything, no matter how random, can be related to something to do with the Seattle grunge scene.

* Seriously, you don’t believe me? How about the fact that “Singles” was spun off into a TV series after the movie was made.  That series? “Friends.” See? The grunge scene impacts EVERYTHING.

Wanna try out my theory with me?  Let’s take a stab at the 2010 Boston Red Sox.

So let’s sit back together, put some Pearl Jam in the cassette player, put a flannel on, and get to know one another over the next few paragraphs.

Stone Temple Pilots : Kevin Youkilis

An outlier, you cry! STP isn’t from Seattle, but from Long Beach, CA.  Admit it – you didn’t know that until I told you.  Don’t worry, neither did I until a couple of years ago.  I was stunned. It was like finding out that Eddie Money was a cop before he decided to pursue a music career. I had to reevaluate my whole perception of music.

But here’s the analogy between Kevin Youkilis and STP – they’re both celebrated, and rightfully so.  Are they celebrated to the degree that’s deserved, given their body of work? Absolutely not.

If you look hard at STP, what you’ll find is the band that is an absolute equal of any band that sprung from the grunge movement.  Yes, the equals of Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, Nirvana, and Alice in Chains.  If you asked someone to name the top grunge band off the top of their head, would any of them say STP? Doubtful.  If you asked someone today who the best player is on the Red Sox, how many people would say Youkilis? 20%, maybe? I think it’s less, and it’s certainly less once you get outside of Boston.  But even with the addition of Victor Martinez, I’m not sure it’s a question of who is the best player on the Red Sox.

All STP has done is put up the single best Top-15 list of songs of ANY of the grunge bands.  I would put STP’s list up against any other band – yes, against Pearl Jam, Nirvana, whoever you want to throw out there – and STP would be victorious.  Now, am I saying STP is the best band from the era? No, not necessarily.  I’m saying that if you look at the body of work, especially the upper level of that work, they have to be at least considered.  For five straight albums, they cranked out incredible song after incredible song.  As Bill Simmons likes to say, by the time of their album “Purple,” they were throwing absolute smoke (seriously, listen to “Interstate Love Song” and tell me you’re not amazed).  Is “Purple” the best album of the era?  I think it’s a lot closer than anyone thinks.

Kevin Youkilis is Red Sox Nation’s STP.  Kevin Youkilis, the man who led all American League first basemen in OPS in 2009, and the man who can arguably play gold-glove defense at two positions in the infield, doesn’t even get the respect he deserves in his own hometown, let alone nationally. We have a guy who is arguably the best first baseman in the entire American League playing in our backyard, and people are failing to recognize his brilliance (well, except Theo, who gave him a sweet contract extension last year).

His 2009 season is the equivalent of STP’s “Core” – his announcement to the world that he’s finally arrived as the central figure in the Red Sox lineup, a man who can be counted on to carry this lineup at times if he needs to.  Let’s all hope, for the Red Sox sake, that he has a “Purple” up his sleeve in 2010.  This lineup needs it.

Candlebox : Jason Varitek

Candlebox is one of the bigger enigmas to emerge from the Seattle music scene during the grunge era.  A band that never really toiled in obscurity the way most of the other bands did, they crashed onto the scene in 1993 with their eponymous album after being together only two years, and the next year they were playing the main stage at Woodstock 1994.  Powered by such amazing songs as “Far Behind” (which features arguably the best guitar solo of any grunge song), “You” and “Arrow,” Candlebox shot to the top 10 of the Billboard charts, and followed up that album with the not-quite-as-good “Lucy.”

But the real issue with Candlebox isn’t the incredible start to their career.  Its how the last 12 years have gone.  Candlebox is a prime example of a band that should have hung their guitars up a few years ago.  Instead, trying to capitalize on the nostalgia of the Seattle grunge era, and more likely trying to line their wallets with a few more paydays, they reunited in 2006, and have spent the past four years putting out one incredibly awful album, and playing at such no-name places like the O’Fallon, Missouri Heritage and Freedom Fest.  If they had just hung up their guitars after they broke up in 1998, people would likely have a different opinion of them.  Now? It’s just sad.  They’re like the grunge version of Old Yeller.

Time for 'Tek to retire to somewhere warm and sunny?

Speaking of people who should have hung up their cleats a couple years ago… Hello, Jason Varitek!!! This next paragraph will likely upset the ‘Tek Army, as the respected Chad Finn of the Boston Globe has taken to calling the incredibly loyal Varitek fans. So be it.

The last four years of Varitek’s career mirror very closely the last four years of Candlebox’s existence.  Early on, one could have easily argued Varitek was the most valuable catcher in both facets of the game.  Throwing out his 2001-02 seasons (because of the elbow injury), from 1999-2005, Jason averaged roughly .260 (avg)/.370 (OBP)/.450 (SLG), while being regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the league.  And then, in 2006, he fell off the cliff.  His average numbers since 2006: .230/3.20/.380.

Seriously, he’s averaged a .380 slugging percentage since 2006.  How bad is that?  He’s arguably one of the five worst offensive catchers of the past four years.  He’s a switch-hitting Jason Kendall, only barely better.  Seriously, watching Varitek hit left-handed isn’t even angering anymore – it’s just flat sad.  If he were a normal person, he’d be the 90-year old lady who gets her license taken away from her for the safety of others.

Jason, please, we’re all begging you.  We love you.  We really do.  Maybe not as much as Heidi Watney does, but all us Sox fans really do love you.  And we hate to see you like this.  But it’s not us – it’s you.  Please go home before we see you headlining the Heritage and Freedom Fest in Nowhereland, Middle America.

Silverchair : Hideki Okajima

Ok, I know what you’re saying – Silverchair isn’t Seattle grunge – they’re from Australia! I know. Sue me. It’s called poetic license, and as far as I’m concerned, the alt-rock/post-grunge movement is fair game.

Most of you know “Tomorrow”  by Silverchair. If you listened to alternative radio in the mid-90s, you’re lying if you say you don’t – it was the #1 single for weeks in 1994.  And if you listen to “Tomorrow,” there is negligible difference between that song and any song released from Seattle from 1992-1996.  So what if they’re Aussies?

Silverchair was one of the first bands to capture the grunge sound overseas, cranking a very solid career from 1994 until today.  They came flying onto the charts of the US with “Tomorrow,” even headlining SNL back when SNL was relevant and hysterical.  And since 1994, they’ve steadily improved their songwriting and their sound, cranking out hits like “Anthem for the Year 2000” and “Abuse Me.” If you listen to their latest single, “Straight Lines,” (which is probably the best song of 2007), you would honestly wonder how they’re the same band that caused 14-year old grunge girls to lose their minds in the mid-90s.

But how does this apply to Hideki?  Think about.

A man from a foreign land.

Blasts onto the scene in a huge way in 2007 (both in giving up a HR to the first batter he faced, and having a huge, unexpected breakout year for the Sox as they go on to win the World Series).

Throws people for a loop with something unexpected – the head dip as he’s releasing the ball (similar to finding out Silverchair is from Australia and yet still a grunge band).

Over the next few years, tweaks his repertoire (when was the last time you heard about the Okey-Dokey pitch? Thank god that’s over with), while maintaining his effectiveness, if not his chart-topping success (he’s had declining numbers every year since 2007, but manages to be a trusted arm for Tito in every tight situation).*

Note: Can I type “situation” anymore without immediately cracking up? No, no I cannot. Am I beating up the beat right now as I type this? Hold on. <bends down, starts slapping the floor as the beat builds>

Given that Okajima is now 35 years old, its unlikely to expect any sorts of drastic reversions to his 2007 numbers going forward, just like we can’t expect Silverchair to top the charts again.  But Hideki is that trusted reliever you know is just going to keep cranking out solid innings for you, year in and year out.

Malfunkshun : Jonathan Papelbon

Malfunkshun, one of the “godfathers” of the grunge movement, a predecessor to some of the crazier bands of the era.  While they only had one album, “Return to Mount Olympus,” the members of the band would go on to affect other bands – specifically, Andrew Wood, who became the lead singer of Mother Love Bone, arguably the most important band of the entire grunge era (but that’s a different argument for a different time).  So why am I writing about them here?

Because these guys were certifiably crazy.  When they played live shows, they all played under their alter-ego’s, with names like “L-Andrew the Love Child” and “Thundarr” and “Led Springsteen.”  They were known for their incredibly creative live shows, with Andrew Wood wearing white face paint, a silver cape, and platform shows.  Their lone album contained such song names as “Shotgun Wedding” and “I Wanna Be Yo Daddy.”

If nothing else, Jonathan Papelbon is the late-2000’s equivalent of Andrew Wood.  Think of Paps with the beer box on his head, dancing in Fenway and spraying beer cans.  Think of his alter-ego, Cinco-Ocho. Think of the routine he goes through before pitching: the fist-bump with the bullpen cop, sprinting to the mound with Dropkick Murphy’s blaring as Sox fans dance in the stands, the exaggerated fist-pumps on a swinging 3rd strike to end the inning as he screams in the air.  He’s our showman – a man who identifies with the crazy side of Sox fans better than anyone on this team.  And yet, on top of all this, he also happens to be one of the 2 or 3 best relief pitchers in the game (his troubles in 2009 aside).  He is Andrew Wood – incredibly talented, incredibly insane, and adored by everyone.

Alice in Chains : JD Drew

When people think of the pantheon of the Seattle bands, its always Pearl Jam, Soundgarden and Nirvana.  And that’s a shame, because Alice in Chains had the chops to equal any of these bands. In terms of pure musical talent, they were arguably the most talented band of the era.  With a harder edge than the rest of the Seattle bands, they cranked out three of the best albums of the early 90s in their eponymous album, “Jar of Flies,” and “Dirt.” That’s 3 of the top 10 grunge albums in history.  Seriously.  They boasted the best vocalist/guitarist combo of any of the bands in Layne Staley and Jerry Cantrell.  They incorporated the heavy metal roots of grunge better than any band to that point. They even had the best music videos of any grunge band at a time when music videos actually meant something.

So why don’t they get the credit they deserve?

I honestly have no idea.  Could it be Layne Staley’s incredibly powerful addiction to drugs, which ended up costing him his life in 2002? Probably.  Are there other explanations? I can’t honestly think of any.

What does any of this have to do with JD Drew?

It’s simple.  It’s a struggle to understand why he’s so hated in Boston, and why he doesn’t get the credit he deserves.  Every time you ask someone who hates JD Drew why they feel that way, they can’t accurately describe why.  Sometimes they will say “oh, well, he ALWAYS strikes out.” Well, that’s not true.  He’s averaged between 70 and 80 strikeouts per year for his career.  If you think he strikes out a lot, you must have never watched Adam Dunn play baseball.  Other times I hear “well, he just plays with no passion.” I’m sorry, but did I miss the memo that said it was bad to have a player who doesn’t play the game like a petulant baby, like every Yankees fan’s loverboy Paul O’Neill?

It’s far more desirable to have a guy who plays baseball on an even keel, 24/7, 162 games per year.  The MLB season is the most physically exhausting season of any major professional sport.  Yes, the NFL is more physical.  Yes, the athletes in the NBA are better. Yes, hockey players are much more active and take a more physical beating. I’m not arguing with that.  But the game of baseball is a mental grind.  You are traveling on long road trips all over the country all season.  You’re playing a sport where being really consists of failing 70% of the time.  Is it beneficial to have a guy who’s throwing helmets, who’s cursing at umpires, who can’t leave one failure alone and move on the next at bat?

The Red Sox know what they’re getting every year out of JD Drew.  He’s going to be on base over 40 percent of the time. He’s going to be the top slugging RF in the American League.  He’s going to be the best defensive fielder in the American League.  He’s going to come through in the clutch with huge hits (Would we have won the 2007 World Series without him? Never.) And every single person in this town who calls WEEI is going to complain about how he gets paid $14 million per year, and the least he can do is throw some helmets to let these fans know HE REALLY CARES ABOUT PLAYING BASEBALL!!!!!

It’s a painfully flawed argument.  So continue to hate on JD Drew if you will, Red Sox fans.  The rest of us will just be sitting here watching the best right fielder in the American League.

Pearl Jam : Dustin Pedroia

I’m not going to use this space to try and convince you that Pearl Jam is not only the best band to emerge from the grunge era, but also the most talented and important band of the last 20 years of music in America.  I know a lot of people disagree with that theory, so I won’t bore you.  Nor am I going to try and convince you that Dustin Pedroia is the best second baseman in the game – he’s not, don’t worry.  It’s closer than anyone thinks, but I don’t want to anger my Philly friends who are entranced by Chase Utley’s slicked-hair. (Seriously – has his hair moved in 5 years?)

This argument more concerns the comparisons between the career arcs of Pearl Jam and Dustin Pedroia.

Pearl Jam was equal parts helped and screwed in their timing of the release of Ten.  Nirvana’s release of “Nevermind” a mere 3 weeks after Pearl Jam released “Ten” caused many critics to radically swing to “Nevermind,” declaring it the bible of grunge music for the new generation.  It greatly overshadowed “Ten,” by all accounts a vastly superior album. “Ten” was Pearl Jam’s smashing introduction to the music world, but also an album that always put them in constant competition with Nirvana for the heart and soul of grunge music.

2007 for Dustin Pedroia was an equally smashing introduction to the baseball world.  Given the starting job at 2B right out of spring training, and 21 games in, he was mired in a horrific slump.  All of the Boston media was calling for Tito to bench Dustin in favor of… Alex Cora, a career backup.  On May 6, however, Dustin went 3 for 4 with two doubles against the Twins, and the rest was history.  He went on to post a 317/380/442 line, winning the AL Rookie of the Year and helping the Sox to their 2nd World Series in four years.

Following up on the incredible success of “Ten,” Pearl Jam released an even-more brilliant follow-up in “Vs.”  What’s that, you say? You say that “Vs.”  isn’t even close to “Ten”? Au contraire, my friends.  Where “Ten” was a raw, dark outpouring of emotion, “Vs.” was a hard-charging destructive force that featured the band at their apex of musical talent.  Seriously, listen to the guitars on every song on “Vs.”; listen to Vedder’s lyrics and his voice straining against the guitars.  Think of the depth “Vs.” shows with driving songs like Go, Animal, Dissident, Glorified G and Rearviewmirror, and with softer, introspective songs like Indifference, Daughter and Elderly Woman.  It’s the “Led Zeppelin II” to “Led Zeppelin.” Both incredible in their own right, but at gun point, I’d chose “Led Zeppelin II” and “Vs.” before their predecessors.

What’s that? You’re nodding your head in agreement with me?  Ok, great.  Let’s move on.

What do I really have to say about Dustin’s 2008?  2008 MVP.  2008 Silver Slugger Award.  2008 Gold Glove.  2008 All-Star.  Led all of MLB in hits and doubles, 2nd in runs.  Cements big contract extension after the 2008 season.

See? Perfect analogy to “Vs.”

Dustin Pedroia: 2009

“Vitalogy” on the whole is a good-to-great album.  There are some incredible songs on it (Nothingman, Not For You, Corduroy), some overrated songs (seriously, Better Man just isn’t that good of a song), and some just plain weird songs (can anyone explain Aye Davanita, Bugs or Satan’s Bed to me? I’ve been trying for years to understand them).  But it’s not even close to being on par with the first 2 albums Pearl Jam wrote.

Dustin’s 2009 was a disappointment in much the same way.  Of course, how does one realistically disappoint when such a high bar is set for him?  Did Dustin have a bad year in 2009? Statistically, he was in line between his 2007 and 2008 numbers in almost every category.  So why did all Red Sox fans feel disappointed by Dustin’s year last year? Did we all have incredibly high expectations for him? No doubt. Once the Sox offense started sputtering early on, Sox fans all expected Dustin, the reigning MVP, to strap the team to his shoulders with Youkilis and carry them.  Maybe Dustin’s just not that type of player.  That’s not to downgrade his talent – he’s obviously one of the top 2 or 3 second basemen in the game.  But he’s not going to be the MVP every year, just like Pearl Jam isn’t going to be able to top “Ten” or “Vs.” with every album they release.

Nirvana : Jacoby Ellsbury

Here’s the argument where I tread carefully, lest I upset the Nirvana-is-the-greatest-band-ever crowd, or the Jacoby Ellsbury pink-shirt wearing crowd.

To those who say Nirvana is the greatest band in the history of grunge, the three men who defined a generation and a movement, I say… yes and no.  This is a debate I’ve had with many friends over the years, and I think my buddy Mike put it best to me once:

“Nirvana is the most important band of the grunge era, whereas Pearl Jam is the best band.”

You know what? I agree with that.  Nirvana’s impact on our generation can’t be understated.  I can only remember distinctly where I was when I found out about 5 things:

• When Kurt Cobain killed himself
• When I watched the OJ chase
• When the OJ verdict was announced
• When Shawn Michaels threw Marty Jannetty through the window of the Barbershop
• When Mark McGwire hit his 62nd HR

So many other people have that same memory of where they were when Kurt killed himself.  And it’s impossible to understate the impact that “Smells like Teen Spirit” had on an entire generation of kids.  Of course it’s the definitive song of the grunge era.  Those arguments are all irrefutable.

But… Nirvana was never given the chance to fail.  That’s always been my issue with people who argue they are the best band of the era.  First, I think its clouded by a perception of the impact of the “Nevermind” album, rather than the quality of the music.  But think about this.  If Eddie Vedder had gone and iced himself after “Vs.”, wouldn’t we view Pearl Jam a lot differently than we do know, after being subjected to albums like “Yield” and “No Code”? Nirvana never had that chance.  They made “Nevermind” and “In Utero” and, poof, they were history.

Could Nirvana have been the best band of the era? Debatable.  But if you asked me that question and then presented “Unplugged in New York” as the only evidence, I would have said without a doubt.  They had the tools.  They were a band that rounding into form (seriously, “Unplugged”  was a band at the absolute top of their game), until fate stepped in and Courtney Love paid a hitman to kill Kurt.  Oh, whoops, sorry, I’ll save my conspiracy theories for a different time.  My bad.

So here’s the issue with Jacoby Ellsbury: yes, he has all the tools to be an incredibly effective CF for years to come.  2009 was a year when we finally witnessed him mature as a hitter, batting over .300 for the first time in his career out of the leadoff spot while stealing over 70 bases.  He seemed to play great defense in CF, seemed to be a destructive force on the basepaths, and finally seems to be understanding pitch selection to some degree.

But… in actuality, he still can’t take a walk, he’s a below-average defensive CF (if we believe the advanced defensive metrics), and he’s not getting any younger.

So, this off-season, when I heard people on the radio and in print arguing that we shouldn’t give up Ellsbury for Adrian Gonzalez, I was befuddled.  If all that stood between the Red Sox obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, not only would I agree to trade him if I was Theo, but I would put him in my car and drive him across the country myself.  As good as Jacoby Ellsbury could be, we have no guarantee he’ll ever finally understand the value of getting on base.  As good as his speed can be, its not effective if he’s not on base.  The idea that the Red Sox wouldn’t trade Ellsbury for a player as good as Adrian Gonzalez is insane.  The Red Sox are guilty of overrating their own prospects and players to a great degree, and all of us – the fans and the media, have done this with Ellsbury.  At the end of the day, you would be trading a risky commodity with a chance of greater upside for an incredibly solid commodity with an even greater upside.

If “Smells Like Teen Spirit” is the reason that Nirvana is overrated in so many peoples’ minds, Ellsbury’s steal of home or his scoring from second on a wild pitch have had much the same effect.  Flashy plays that stick out, causing people to overrate the true value of the underlying commodity.

Conclusion

So by this point, there is just absolutely no way you’re still reading.  Or if you are, I’ll end this treatise and put you out of your misery.  But just know that there is at least a half dozen more comparisons (perhaps for another post), including:

• Josh Beckett and Soundgarden
• Tim Wakefield and the Meat Puppets
• Mike Cameron and Mudhoney
• Jed Lowrie and Mother Love Bone
• Daisuke Matsuzaka and Bush

But as you can see, everything in life can be boiled down to a comparison to the Seattle grunge scene.  If the movie “Singles” has taught us anything, it’s that.  Well, that, and it looks totally awesome to walk around with a flannel shirt tied around your waist.

Say, while you’re here, do you guys care to hear the story of Temple of the Dog?

Kidding.  Kinda.

I love Twitter.

No, really. Love doesn’t properly describe my relationship with Twitter. Nor does obsessed. I honestly have no idea what I did before Twitter. How did us sports fans live? I honestly am at a loss for words.

How does Twitter have anything to do with my favorite Celtic, Kendrick Perkins, you ask?

The other night, during the Mavericks game, I was following a discussion on Twitter between Chad Finn of the Boston Globe (twitter handle: @GlobeChadFinn), Paul Flannery of WEEIcom (@Pflanns), and the guys at CelticsBlog.com (@celticsblog) regarding the game Perkins was having.  And I was drawn to a comment from the CelticsBlog guy, who said:

“Perkins is the new success story that every GM hangs onto when drafting project big men – but it took a lot of time.”

People sometimes forget that Perkins was drafted in 2003 (like… me). 2003? Do you know what also happened in 2003? Grand Theft Auto Vice City came out (ok, fair, its was October 2002, but who’s counting?).  Surely you remember. I know my college roommates and I do.  Just look at our transcripts from that semester. And the spring semester.

But honestly, 2003? Kendrick has been in the league for seven years now? Wow.

But the tweet about Perkins by the CelticsBlog guys made me wonder – just how hard is it to develop a young big man in the NBA these days? For every Kendrick Perkins, who took years to develop into the talent that he is, there’s a Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh, guys who were impact players almost immediately upon entry into the NBA.  Let’s take a look at some data, shall we? No, you say? Too bad, this is my post.

I went back and examined 10 years of NBA drafts, from 1998-2007.  Here’s what I narrowed it down to:

• Only first rounders – sorry, second rounders, but you’re lucky if you pan out
• Power forwards and centers (like I said… big men)
• Players who were drafted between their senior year of high school and their junior year of college
• American players (no offense to the Euros, but its not an equivalent look, with many Euros playing pro ball before they come to the US)

Here’s those drafts:

Olowakandi

1998:

1999:

2000:

2001:

2002:

2003:

Perkins

2004:

2005:

2006:

2007:

That’s 47 18-21 year old centers and power forwards taken in the first round of NBA draft for a decade.  How did NBA GMs do?  Let’s break it down into some categories:

Bosh & Howard

Unquestioned Stars

Amare, Bosh, and Howard.

Above-Average Starters

Odom, Chandler, Randolph (really? Yes – look at his numbers this year), Perkins, Josh Smith, Bogut, Aldridge, Horford, and Green.

Enigmas

Brand – how do you judge someone as injured as him?
Marvin Williams
Bynum – he can be either above-average… or disappear.
Villanueva – have you ever noticed how much he looks like Panthro from Thundercats?*

*Note – I cannot take credit for this joke. I stole it from my buddy. Sorry, Mike.

Role/Bench Players

Joakim Noah & Emeka Okafur

Mohammed, Pryzbilla, Murphy, Dalembert, Okafor, Boone, Noah,  and Hawes.

Too Early to Call (but likely busts)

Thomas, Oden, and Wright.

Complete Busts

Olowokandi, Traylor, Bender, Smith, Swift, Mihm, Moiso, Brown, Curry, Hunter, Bradley, Wilcox, Sweetney, Ebi, Swift, Humphries, Diogu, May, O’Bryant, and Williams.

So, in review, we have:

• 3 stars
• 9 above-average starters
• 4 enigmas
• 8 role/bench players
• 3 “too early to call”
• 20 BUSTS

NBA GMs, when drafting in the first round, expect to at least draft quality starters or solid role players.  But of 47 “big men” draft picks in a 10 year span, only 12 of them (26 percent) have turned into stars or above-average starters.  If you factor in the next two categories, that brings you to 24 players (just over 50 percent) of big men who have turned into stars/starters/role players (and to be honest, Dalembert and Boone could just as easily be considered “busts”).

What does that tell us? Well, if you have a 50 percent failure rate among first round big-men, that would be the ultimate definition of “hit or miss,” no? Look at the burn rate for these big men.  There are some incredibly epic busts among them, names like Olowokandi and Bender and Moiso (yes, all Celtics fans just collectively shuddered at the remembrance of the Pitino era).

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

But of these stars and starters among these groups, how many of them have taken as long as Perk to develop? The answer? None. Really, no.  Look at it.

All of these guys were impact players right away in the league to some extent or the other.  A guy like Tyson Chandler was an impact players right away on the defensive end, even if his offensive game never really matured too far.  Same goes with Josh Smith (interesting note – both fellow high school picks like Perk).  But NONE of them took nearly five years in the league to develop into a viable starter.  Why did Perk take so long to develop, and why is he the success story that he is now?

The main question is, who deserves the credit for Perkins developing into an above-average NBA starter? Danny Ainge, first and foremost. Kendrick Perkins was Danny’s first first-round draft pick in his tenure in Boston.  Danny has stuck by Perkins, signing him to a multi-year extension in 2007, a year after Perkins averaged merely 5.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.  Danny’s patience (along with Doc’s) have been critical in Kendrick’s development.

Most young centers are expected to shoulder heavy loads either immediately or within a couple of years of their entrance into the NBA.  Fanbases get impatient when these guys don’t contribute immediately.  Danny, Doc and Co. were incredible in giving Perk the room to grow into a true force in the middle on the defensive end of the floor.

Perkins & Garnett

Next up – Kevin Garnett.  The difference in Perk’s game since KG arrived is stunning.  He’s taken the pressure off Perk to grow on the offensive end, pushed him on the defensive end and on the boards, and often times providing help defense.  His legendary intensity has been perfect for a young guy like Perk, a guy with equally impressive intensity, but not always great at channeling it (see: Perk’s technical fouls).

Third in line – Clifford Ray, Celtics assistant coach in charge of the bigs.  Ray is the single best big-man coach in the NBA right now.  He’s the man who taught Dwight Howard, and the man now in charge of mentoring Perk.  If you look at Perk from his first two years, compared to this year, look at his footwork.  Look at the way he uses his body to get position down low on both ends of the floor. Hell, look at how well he played against Howard last year in the playoffs.  Ray has been a godsend to Perk.

And last but not least –  let’s give Perk some damn credit.  How rare is it these days to have a big-man drafted so young take so long to develop into a quality NBA starter?

Perk came into the league as a doughy, uncoordinated, unathletic 7-footer with some promise and a whole lot of skeptics.  Over the past seven years, he has transformed himself incredibly athletic, chiseled anchor (who has completely revamped his body) down low for these Celtics teams, a man who can dominate the low post defensively, and a man who has rapidly improved on the offensive end to the point where his low post moves now resemble a young Kevin McHale in some regards.

This is a man whose mother was gunned down when Perk was five, whose father left his family when Perk was 18 months old to travel the world to play basketball, and who has overcome long odds against him (both on the court and off) to become an incredibly well-respected beast of a center in today’s NBA.  It’s been a long seven years, but its definitely been worth it… almost as long as it took us to beat GTA: Vice City.

(leans back, turns up Wildstyle Pirate Radio…)

Now, where’s my Ndubi Ebi jersey?

Don’t forget to check out the Perk-Wear in the 4SB Online Store!

It, I mean, is the new-look Red Sox outfield, with new addition Mike Cameron patrolling the center-field triangle, and every pink-shirt’s favorite, Jacoby Ellsbury, patrolling the same hallowed ground as Mike Greenwell, the best left fielder in the history of Red Sox outfielders who loved to wrestle alligators and drive race cars.

According to Amalie Benjamin, Tito said the shift of Ellsbury from CF to LF to accommodate Cameron was “kind of obvious to (him).” Theo Epstein was also quoted as stating that, based on Ellsbury’s past experience in LF, this move just made more sense. But does it?

The first question that needs to be answered is “How good of a center fielder is Jacoby Ellsbury?”

Disregard the advanced defensive metrics for a second (don’t worry, we’ll get to those shortly) – from a pure eyeball vantage point, as a Red Sox fan, did Ellsbury ever strike you, I, or the rest of Red Sox fans as even a below-average center fielder, let alone a bad center fielder? No, no, and hell no.

Just last year, in watching the Sox day in and day out, I thought Ellsbury was an excellent defensive center fielder. By excellent, I mean Coco Crisp-good – there were at least 5-10 catches by him that made me scream out loud in amazement. Sure, he has a weak arm, I’ll grant you that. But from a pure, Joe Morgan-esque perspective, did he play the part of an above-average center fielder who caught nearly everything he could get to? Yes, absolutely.

So, given that, why did the Sox go out and sign Mike Cameron to replace Jason Bay, and furthermore, move our center fielder of the future to accommodate Cameron in center?

Well, because apparently, Ellsbury just ain’t “all that” in the second or third most important defensive position on the diamond.

Let’s take a look at two different statistics, which realistically measure close to the same defensive stats. One is Revised Zone Rating (RZR), created by John Dewan of Stats Inc., which measures the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.

The second is Ultimate Zone Rating 150 (UZR/150), which is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined, extrapolated over an average of 150 games that particular year.

Let’s look at the three year trends in center field only for Ellsbury (keep in mind 2007 and 2008 have much smaller sample sizes than 2009):

RZR:

That 2009 number of .894 puts Jacoby at #16 in all of MLB, squarely between Matt Kemp and Vernon Wells, two center fielders that aren’t necessarily celebrated for their defense. The 2008 number, had he qualified, would have rated him fifth in all of MLB, above, voila, Mike Cameron.

Now, let’s examine Ellsbury’s three year trends from a UZR perspective (remember, UZR’s baseline of 0.0 is considered “average” for the position):

UZR/150:

What do these trends establish for us? Well, for starters, it shows a definite regression for Ellsbury in terms of his defensive metrics last year. Why exactly is that? Could be a number of things, really. Most advanced scouts and statheads (cough, not myself, cough) point towards Ellsbury struggling with balls hit over his head, showing he is struggling with judging the deeper flies one would see often in center field.

Also, all of Ellsbury’s highlights that I remember, for the most part, involved line drives he was charging in for, or plays he had to make laterally. Both of these situations allow him to use his incredible foot speed to catch up to balls that many other center fielders wouldn’t be able to get to.  But balls hit over his head? Even his speed can’t help him compensate for balls hit there. Being able to make plays on balls like that requires proper positioning, quality breaks, and overall ability to play CF, not just be fast.

Which brings us to our second question…

Michael Terrance Cameron. Just how good is he?

For years, Cameron has been considered one of the premier defensive center fielders in all of baseball. And rightfully so. Look at the parks he’s manned over the years:

That’s three of the largest outfields in baseball that Cameron has had the responsibility of patrolling.

How has that translated into his defensive statistics?

RZR:

UZR/150:

What exactly do these numbers mean? Well, there’s a clear gap in the 2009 numbers between Ellsbury and Cameron. From a RZR perspective, it shows about a 6-7% increase in the number of balls Cameron got to in his zone in 2009 compared to Ellsbury. As for UZR, Cameron bests Ellsbury by a factor of over 28 runs. Is this significant? Well, yes, I’d say so. So too would Theo and Tito.

Let’s also take a look at Ellsbury’s stats in his limited time in left field in the 2008 and 2007 seasons:

RZR:

UZR/150:

Mind you, the RZR numbers are based on a sample size of 58 games in left.

So what does this tell us? Pretty much, if these trends were to hold true for an entire year, the Red Sox would have an incredible left fielder defensively in Ellsbury. His .932 RZR number (a true sample size would correct it down somewhat, likely) would have been tops in all of baseball in 2008. His 30.3 UZR/150 stat would have placed him first in all of MLB that year as well, had he qualified. (Note: only Carl Crawford would have come relatively close.)

Let’s take a look at the bigger picture. One would argue that, because of the increase in numbers that naturally comes from a shift from center field to left field (some stats people say its about 10 runs or so in UZR), wouldn’t the Sox be just as well off with moving Cameron to left field, and keeping Ellsbury in center field? Yes, sort of.  I mean, would it kill the Sox defensively? No, likely not.

You’d have a gold glove OF in left field instead of center field. But then you would still have your center fielder sporting a -18.3 UZR. Whereas, now, with Ellsbury in left field, Theo, Tito and the boys could have a guy who would be among the league’s best in any defensive metric in left field (if the trends from 2008 hold true), in addition tobringing a true Gold Glove CF to Fenway.

Its clear, looking at it this way, that this is the right move for the Sox in 2010 and 2011, unless Cameron’s defensive metrics rapidly deteriorate this year (can’t see that happening unless injuries catch up to him, which, at his age, is possible).

The added benefit of Ellsbury saving his legs from the pounding they’d take in center field and utilizing them more on the base paths surely is what tipped Theo and Tito over to the side of making the move.

Which brings us to our third question…

Just how good can the Red Sox OF defense be in 2010?

Um… really good.  Like, historically good. Like, off-the-charts, nutty nutso good.

We’ve already looked at left field and center field. If those numbers hold up, you’d have arguably the top LF/CF combination in all of baseball. But how about the most under appreciated man in all of baseball, David Jonathan Drew?*

Can someone explain to me how you turn “David Jonathan” into “J.D.”? It’s been over 11 years, and I still am unable to comprehend this. I bet he hated D.J. Tanner and the rest of Full House. That’s really all I’ve been able to come up with.

JD Drew in 2009 was, by either statistic, the #1 ranked right fielder in all of baseball. Yes, higher than Ichiro. Here are his three year trends:

RZR:

UZR/150:

2009:   15.7

2008:  12.9

2007:  -2.4

What does this show you? It shows us that, dammit, that $14M per year IS worth it. (Note: JD Drew is my favorite player on the Red Sox. I admit to an incredibly large amount of bias in this regard.)

But it also shows us that, just by using these simple defensive metrics (and lord knows Theo and Co., who pay a lot of people a lot of dollar bills to come up with proprietary data the sabermetricians have no idea about, have even more data), the Red Sox outfield in 2010, providing everyone stays healthy, could be the best in all of baseball.

Long gone are the days where we sit and are forced to suffer through watching catchable balls fall into the gaps, opposing runners churning around the bases, and, in turn, being forced to win games by scoring 6+ runs.  Long gone is the suffering of people who considered Manny’s defense an affront to the game of baseball. Long gone are the days of watching Johnny Damon bounce a ball on 4 hops to 2nd base from short center field.

Which is good… because they’re going to have to win a lot of 1-0 games.