Apparently me, the Rams, and everyone else was on the same page with this one.  Taking that first overall QB is always a risk, cough JeMarcus Russell, but the reward if he turns out to be your franchise is without question the most rewarding pick you can make.  Ask the Colts, ask the Jets, the Chargers, Giants, and Falcons.  All these teams used high picks on their current QB and are year-in year-out competitors as a result.

This guy is a beast.  He led the Cornhuskers to one of the top defenses in the NCAA last year, and it will be the centerpiece to a Lions defense that absolutely could not stop the run last year.  In a division with Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, and Ryan Grant, being able to put up a brick wall is absolutely essential to being competitive.  The Lions strategy:  Keep the defense off the field, get Matthew Stafford on the field.  Suh should help that.

The 3^rd best player in the draft at the 3^rd overall pick.  So far so good.

Honestly, I’m not going to pretend I know enough about the OT position and these two players in particular to tell you the Redskins should have taken Okung over Williams.  The point here is Washington made the right position pick, and Donovan McNabb is pleased.

Well BB didn’t make the move, and the Chiefs who I thought for certain would trade this pick decided to stand still.  The player they took is projected as one of the best in the draft.  Draft etiquette says don’t take safeties this high, but this is a different NFL.  The versatile safety is a major game changer in today’s NFL.  Ed Reed, Troy Polumalu, and Adrian Wilson are all good examples of players who can take over the game.  I think we’ll see more safeties go this high as more game changing safeties work their way through college into the NFL.

Okung available here is a good value pick.  It’s not a huge risk passing on Clausen here, as he may still be available when they pick again at 14^th overall.  There was some question as to whether the Seahawks should take Spiller with him still on the board at this point.  Okung should help protect the fragile Matt Hasselback.

I thought for sure the Browns would address their embarrassing offense with this pick.  I guess they considered Joe Haden the best player on the board.  The truth is the Browns are terrible, and anyone they could have picked here is an immediate improvement at every position.  If Haden can become a lockdown corner, obviously they’ve made a good pick here.

As usual, what?  The Raiders already have Kirk Morrison who is a solid ILB.  Perhaps McClain is an upgrade from Morrison, but with all of the major holes in the Raiders team, ILB was not a…

Will C.J. Spiller be the one that got away?

Now I’m pissed.  I stopped mid sentence on my Raider trashing to listen to the Bills pick, and I’m not looking back.  I really wanted the Pats to trade up and go get him.  Well, he’s in the AFC East, but now I have to cheer against him instead of for him.  Great pick by the Bills, shame on the Pats for allowing it to happen.

The Jags made a reach here on this guy.  Kiper projected him as a 3-4 end.  They probably could have traded down and taken him later, but they drafted need.  The position is the same as I predicted, but the player is different.

Obviously Eric Berry is gone, and the 49ers wanted to move up and make sure they got Davis.  I had Haden going to the 49ers at 13 overall, and he went to the Browns at pick seven.  This is a draft of offensive and defensive line, and as usual, provided the player pans out, it’s a good productive first round pick.

I didn’t think it was necessary to climb this high to get this running back.  I considered this an option for the Chargers 15 picks later.  Obviously they needed to fill the gap at running back left by Tomlinson going to the Jets.  Sproles is not an every down back and Matthews will eventually be the feature back.  How come the Chargers are willing to trade up for a running back, but the Patriots aren’t? Grrr…

This gentleman is a pass rusher.  The Eagles were super shallow at linebacker last year, and Graham is somewhat of a hybrid OLB/DE.  Apparently the guys on ESPN love this guy, and Tom Jackson has a whole slue of fantastic adjectives to describe him.  The Eagles keep both 2^nd round picks by moving up too, so it looks like a good move overall for Philly.

Again, big time safeties are the new trend in the NFL.  For the first time since Pick number three, I’ve got one right.  The Seahawks needed to upgrade that defense after addressing the offensive line with their first pick.  He’ll help Seattle not get blown out week in and week out.  Perhaps Pete Carroll is thinking of a 2^nd round quarterback, as there should be a few available.

To me this was an obvious choice going into the draft.  They need to replace Antonio Pierce.  I thought McClain would be there, and probably would have been there if the Raiders knew what they were doing.  The Raiders are like the lone auto-drafter in a 12 team fantasy draft.  Except instead of using the Yahoo! Rankings, they set up a preset ranking based on their favorite team.  It causes major reaches, and absolutely hoses the teams six or seven picks behind them.  Of course, the Giants made the best of the situation, taking one of my favorite players, JPP.  He’ll be all over the quarterback in his rookie year, and should make an immediate impact on one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year.

The Titans are victims to the Raiders auto-drafting domino effect.  The Giants may have taken McClain if he was there, and Pierre-Paul would have been available for Tennessee.  Alas, he’s off the board, and Jeff Fischer stuck with a DE though and took Morgan, who fell pretty far considering he was projected in the top 10.  I’m not that excited about this pick, as you’ll see I had him falling all the way to the Falcons at #19 and missing out on JPP has to be a disappointment, though Morgan is at this stage a more complete player.

Two picks, two offensive lineman.  The biggest concern with the 49ers is whether Alex Smith can play Quarterback.  This is Mike Singletary making his statement on this football team though.  He will be running the ball with Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and these picks reflect that strategy.

Honestly, I followed the leader with my pick here.  I know nothing about Pouncey, but I do know the Steelers can’t convert 3^rd and short.  I also know that no one wants Ben Roethlisberger with his hand on their ass, so they have to draft someone into it.  The biggest surprise here is that a kid from the make a wish foundation wanted to announce the Steelers first round draft pick as his wish.  I hate the Steelers, and Michael Vick should shoot Ben Roethlisberger like the dog he is.

With Morgan off the board, the Falcons still address the defense.  Hopefully this will benefit the pass defense, because Atlanta couldn’t help but give up big plays through the air last season.  If they hope to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they’ll need a dramatically improved defense.

Having lost Dunta Robinson in free agency, the Texans have predictably replaced him.  I thought they’d take Kyle Wilson, but they went with Jackson instead.

In my predictions, I had the Dolphins stretching for Gresham very early.  Instead, they traded down and he fell into the lap of Carson Palmer at #21.  This is a great pick here.  He’s a weapon to the tune of Vernon Davis, and should immediately make the AFC North Champion a contender to repeat.

With Dez Bryant still on the board, it’s surprising to see the Broncos trade up to get him here.  They do need to replace Brandon Marshall, and this kid is one of the top WR talents in a shallow WR draft.  I’m still befuddled by Bill Belicick.  I really thought this was our year to be aggressive, and now we’re trading down and stacking up picks we can’t use.

I had Bulaga going to Buffalo at #9.  Aaron Rodgers should be super pleased with this choice.  I’m starting to wonder if all these lineman picks speaks to the talent of these big players, or the lack of talent at the skill positions.

Apparently Philly made the right move trading up for Brandon Graham.  Had they stayed still, they wouldn’t have gotten Graham or my prediction, Weatherspoon.  Meanwhile the Patriots continue to trade down, making me wonder what they’re doing.  What are they going to do with all these picks?  The Cowboys did nothing with this new pick but take the best wide receiver in the draft.  Bryant, Miles Austin, and Roy Williams will make a terrific force in the NFC East.

Wow.  McDaniels traded back into the first round here and added Tim Tebow to go with Thomas.  Most likely the Ravens saw Bryant go off the board and decided to back out of the first round.  This is a faith pick, and I’ll let you know in 2 to 3 years if it made sense.  Personally, I think he can be an NFL quarterback because of his work ethic.  He won at Florida, and with a Head Coach as offensively creative as Josh McDaniels, he’s in a good situation.  On the other hand, he’s kind of a simpleton.

He fell pretty far, and should upgrade the Cardinals defensive line.  I’m not excited though, because I’m now concerned the Pats might trade down again for no reason.

Devin McCourty

I guess to be fair to the Pats with all these moves so far, there isn’t a single player, except maybe Dan Williams, taken between picks 22 and 26 that fit the need.  Even with Dan Williams available, it’s more likely the Pats would take Hughes, Kindle, Kyle Wilson, or perhaps even Taylor Mays.  However, given all those options, the Pats went with McCourty.  I like the pick to help the secondary.  I am surprised they passed on Wilson to take McCourty.  I have to continue to believe that they did their homework on this pick and in Belicick I trust.  In addition, the Pats now have 3^rd and 4^th round picks with these pair of moves, and won’t be handcuffed until round six after their three 2^nd round selections.

Odrick can play DE in the 3-4 defense.  I like him at this pick, as it was hard for me to leave him out of the first round in my mock draft.  The only thing that pushed him to round two was my imaginary run on CB’s at the end of the first round.  I’ll be looking forward to see how he matches up against Sabastian Vollmer.

Well the Jets went ahead and took Wilson.  Pats fans are going to find out real quick whether Belicick made the wrong pick with McCourty.  With Revis and Wilson, this Jets defense could be scary.

As the Vikings hit the clock, I’m thinking the Vikings take Taylor Mays.  I thought he’d be off the board, and they’d stay in the secondary with Robinson.  I think Mays is a better value at this pick, and Steve Young just agreed with me.  Apparently Brad Childress isn’t on the same page.  Instead, they traded down to division rival Detroit, who take Jahvid Best.  Best ran the fastest official 40 yard dash time in the combine of all running backs.  I like these moves by the Lions, and I’ll say it again, Detroit is headed in the right direction.  The Vikings don’t lose too much here, they’ll pick at overall pick #34 and added two more draft picks.  They’ll still have an opportunity to add a defensive back or quarterback.

I’ve only had a few right, and with each passing pick it gets more difficult to predict, so I’m proud of this projection.  This guy is in the Dwight Freeney mold, and fits right into the mold of a fast, small Colts defense.

They needed a CB, and McCourty is off the board.  Patrick Robinson is the next viable option.  I like the pick for the reigning champs.

That wraps up Day 1 of the 2010 NFL draft.  I barely touched the surface when it came to predicting these picks, although with all the mid-round trading that took place, and the Raiders inability to draft logically, who could have picked them all right?  Biggest reach for me is Ryan Matthews at 12^th overall.  Best deal is Dez Bryant at 24^th.    With Day 2 and three, count them three, Patriot picks in the 2nd round ahead, I’m already geared up for the draft to continue.

Percy Harvin = Successful draft

The NFL draft, easily the most marketable and entertaining of all sports drafts, sets the table for the entire season.  Post-season predictions are based on free agent signings, trades, and rookies projected to step in and contribute immediately to already competitive teams.  Last year, first rounders such as Vikings WR Percy Harvin, Jets QB Mark Sanchez, and Packers OLB Clay Matthews not only contributed, but carried weight heading into the playoffs.  Other exciting rookies including Matthew Stafford, Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis, and Texans linebacker Brian Cushing reminded the league that hitting on your first round pick can result in immediate improvement and long-term championship aspirations.

On the other side of the coin-flip, missing in the top round can set a franchise back an entire decade.  Watching Matt Millen miss on wide receivers year after year has been absolutely painful, even for someone who hasn’t wondered what was going on with Detroit since Barry Sanders retired.  Of last year’s picks, the Falcons are wondering if they are eating the salary of a bust with their DT Peria Jerry, who spent most of 2009 on the inactive list, and failed to make key contributions while on the field.  Although expectations for year two are high for San Francisco wide receiver Michael Crabtree, he didn’t put on a jersey until midseason in 2009 helping to secure tee times for his 49ers teammates in January.  It’s absolutely essential your franchise have a great scouting department and a specific yet flexible game plan when they walk into the war room, or else fans may be kissing Super Bowl chances goodbye for not only next season, but seasons to come.

I admit to taking a hiatus from football at the start of the baseball season.  Instead choosing to enjoy pre-season in Arizona, which I absolutely failed to report on as a 4SportBoston writer, and watching the Sox trade off days between classic heroics and complete and utter humiliation, I’ve neglected offseason NFL moves.  That said, I’ll run down my impression of the most important offseason moves:

Ted Ginn Jr

San Fran gets Ted Ginn Jr for a 2010 fifth round draft pick.  This one hurts the Dolphins.  Not because it’s the wrong move, but because Ginn was taken 10^th overall, after the Dolphins let Wes Welker walk and replaced him with Ginn.  The accumulation of all those moves resulted in a few years of an underachieving wideout and a fifth round pick.  For the Niners, it tells me they’re not looking to draft a wide receiver, and Ginn will make a good deep threat compliment to Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and the beast, Vernon Davis.

Brandon Marshall to Miami for second round picks in 2010 and 2011.  Obviously there was a major rift between the Broncos and Marshall, and the Dolphins benefit.  Who needs Ginn when you have Marshall?  The loser here is obviously Denver.  They’ve got two chances to make good picks to replace Marshall, but finding a playmaker at wide receiver like Marshall is unlikely in this year’s draft.

Santonio Holmes to the Jets for a fifth round pick in 2010.  Did I read that right?  I guess the Steelers want players who are allowed to play, as Holmes will start the year suspended for four games.

Marc Bulger cut.  Hmmm…

Donovan McNabb, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson to the Washington Redskins.  Parker and Johnson were free agent signings, and McNabb came over for a second round pick.  The Skins are immediately a contender and out of the running to draft Jimmy Clausen with this move.

Kurt Warner retires, Derek Anderson signed by Arizona.  Nobody is sure what the QB situation will be like in Arizona next year, but the worst division in football is even worse with this swap.  It’s wide open in the NFC west now.

Get ready to hear from this guy some more...

LaDainian Tomlinson signed by the Jets.  Running backs at 30+ tend to break down, and Shonn Greene will be upset to know he’s not the feature back as he might have expected, but cheer up Shonn, Tomlinson doesn’t play in the 4^th quarter when the game really matters.

Brady Quinn traded to Denver for Peyton Hillis and two picks.  This means a battle between Orton and Quinn for the starting job.  Good luck fellas, I hope you can find somewhere to throw the ball.  They should just play catch.

Antonio Bryant to Cleveland.  He’s a good player, is Seneca Wallace the favorite to throw to him?

Finally, Anquan Boldin traded to Baltimore for third and fourth round picks.  With Mason returning and Boldin now on board, this should be a terrific offense.

Thirty-five paragraphs in and I haven’t even started my projections yet!  That’s okay though, because the draft starts in free agency.  Decisions made in February and March help us project the decisions that will be made from April 22^nd to April 24^th.

Thanks to Mel Kiper’s Mock Draft Experience on ESPN, performing my own mock draft was super easy.  Below are my results.  Later on, real GM’s with real paychecks and real scouts will be making picks, and Thursday night, I’ll be happy to tell you why I’m smarter than almost all of them.

Here are my first round projections, almost certainly right:

Rams – QB Sam Bradford

Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh

Bucs – DT Gerald McCoy

Redskins – OT Russell Okung

Patriots (from Chiefs) – RB CJ Spiller

Seahawks – QB Jimmy Clausen

Browns – WR Dez Bryant

Raiders – OT Trent Williams

Bills – OT Bryan Bulaga

Jaguars – DT Dan Williams

Broncos – S Eric Berry

Dolphins – TE Jermaine Gresham

49ers – CB Joe Haden

Seahawks – S Earl Thomas

Giants – ILB Rolando McClain

Titans – DE Jason Pierre-Paul

49ers – OLB Brandon Graham

Steelers – C Maurkice Pouncey

Falcons – DE Derrick Morgan

Texans – CB Kyle Wilson

Bengals – OT Anthony Davis

Patriots – OLB Sergio Kindle

Packers – G Mike Iupati

Eagles – OLB Sean Weatherspoon

Ravens – CB Kareem Jackson

Cardinals – S Taylor Mays

Cowboys – OT Charles Brown

Chargers – WR Demaryius Thomas

Jets – DE Everson Griffen

Vikings – CB Patrick Robinson

Colts – OLB Jerry Hughes

Saints – CB Devin McCourty

C.J. Spiller a Patriot?

These are my first round selections.  Note the only trade made, the Chiefs desperately trying to move down, and the Pats an optimal trade partner with their three second round picks.  I think it will be something to the tune of two second round picks this year and our first round pick next year (note that New England has the Raiders first round pick in 2011).  We’ve watched the way top running backs Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have taken over games while former first round bust Laurence Maroney struggles to find holes in the offensive line.  This is the year Belicick makes the move for a big time playmaker, and hangs on to the 22^nd overall pick and takes LB Sergio Kindle, a hybrid DE/OLB.

The only question left – when all my picks are wrong, how will those foolish GMs and coaches live with themselves?

People have been waiting to see these teams meet all season, and unlike some previous seasons, actually will have the opportunity.  The obviously dramatic match-ups for this Super Bowl were either the Jets and Vikings or Saints and Colts.  Had the Jets bested the Colts and Brett Favre tucked it and ran with 17 seconds to go in the NFC Championship, we’d be talking about 40-year-old Brett Favre facing the team he took snaps for in 2008-09.

Fortunately for NFL Fans, we’re not watching the Saints and Jets.  Those two teams have absolutely zero history and even less drama between them.  The only tie I can even make between them is that Saints starting LB Jonathan Vilma started his career with the Jets, only to be sent packing when former Jets Head Coach Eric Man-gina came to town and changed the defensive scheme to a 3-4 package.  Vilma struggled the first season before moving back into a 4-3 set in New Orleans.  Not exactly the same drama that Brett Favre vs. NYJ or Manning vs. Brees delivers that’s for sure.

The conversation around Manning vs. Brees has to do with the legitimacy of Drew Brees.  In the last three years he has submitted his name into the ranks of Manning and Brady, but lacks the shiny finger ornament that justifies the careers of all great quarterbacks (sorry Dan Marino).  If he wins on Sunday, Drew is likely to be in New Orleans the rest of his career and leave behind a legacy as the greatest quarterback in a city that will soon be under water.

The last “great” quarterback for the New Orleans Saints was the father of Peyton and Eli Manning, Archie.  What made Archie Manning great?  I have no idea.  I saw a clip of him running around getting chased by defenders once, but that’s pretty much the extent of my memories of watching him play.  The stats don’t really tell the story either.  In 14 seasons with the Saints, Oilers, and Vikings, Archie had zero winning seasons.   His most successful season by far was the 1979 campaign when he led the Saints to an 8-8 season with 15 TD’s / 20 INT’s and inexplicably one of two career Pro Bowl appearances.  By far, Archie’s greatest contribution to the game of football are his two sons, and the uncanny ability to make analysts and color commentators forget his Rodney Peete-esque statistics, and label him as a “great” quarterback.

The only thing in the world that could make Saints fans forget all about Archie Manning and remind them of how little he actually accomplished for the franchise is a Saints Super Bowl win on Sunday.  Of course, fairy tales of fabled follied fathers of future Hall of Famers fail to foretell football future.  That will have to be decided, like all other games, on the gridiron…

Or in this case, by Madden NFL10.

Every year prior to the Super Bowl, EA Sports runs a simulation of Madden that will determine the Super Bowl.  Five of the last six years, the winner has been correct.  I bet you can guess which year the EA simulator, millions of Americans, and countless heartbroken New Englanders were wrong.  This year, the EA Sports simulator says the Saints will win 35-31.

That’s all good and well, but I thought I would go ahead and run my own simulation.  Rather than watch a fake football game, I “super-simmed” it.

To be fair, I modified the starters so that each team was playing their team based on the real life depth chart.  This is going to sway the simulation because players like Pierre Garcon, Melvin Bullitt of the Colts, and Carl Nicks of the Saints are… well… not very good in Madden 10.  In addition, a few players were either hard to find in Madden or non-existent.  I apologize to Kyle Eckel, Thomas Morstead, Mike Bell, Courtney Roby, Remi Ayodele, Jacob Lacey, Antonio Johnson, and Kyle DeVan.  Although you get to play in real life, this is not real life, and you have to sit out my simulation.

In order to be fair, as I know Jacob Lacey is in important part of the Colts defense, I allowed CB Marlin Jackson to play in his stead.

Now that the rules are fair, the simulation begins.  I’m going to watch this stupid thing and tell you all about it.  You couldn’t get a better pregame analysis than the fake play by play of the game itself!

According to Madden, the Saints kick off.  On the opening kickoff, Pierre Garcon fumbled on the opening drive, but the Colts were able to recover.

The opening drive results in one first down and a Colts punt.

Oh dear, Reggie Bush broke a big 38 yard run, but put the ball on the ground at the end.  Somehow the Saints recovered and retained possession, though.  The Saints ran a screen pass to Bush on 3^rd and 10, and punt the ball into the Colts end zone.

The first score of the game comes with 1:19 remaining in the first quarter on a Pierre Garcon 63-yard TD pass.  Apparently it’s not a big deal to Madden that Garcon is ranked as a 54 overall in the game.

On a 3^rd and 1, Bush broke a toss play for 15 yards, moving the Saints into Colt territory to end the first quarter.  At the end of one, Colts 7 – Saints 0.

On 4^th and 6, Garrett Hartley fails to put the Saints on the board as he misses a 43 yard field goal.  This could spell trouble for the Saints as the Colts take the ball back up by seven.

For the second score of the game, Peyton Manning hits Dallas Clark over the middle for 10 yards.  Colts 14 – Saints 0 with 2:57 left in the first half.

On the play from scrimmage, Reggie Bush takes the ball and runs up the middle 70 yards down to the Colts 2-yard line.  After two failed runs up the middle by Pierre Thomas, David Thomas drops a Drew Brees pass in the end zone.  Saints settle for an extra point distance field goal.  Colts 14 – Saints 3.

Fortunately for the Saints, the Colts are 3 and out on the following drive and New Orleans will have another shot to score before half time.  Thanks to a 3^rd down penalty on Melvin Bullitt, the Saints pick up a big gain and score two plays later on a 21 yard pass to Bush.  Colts 14 – Saints 10 with :46 to go in the first half.  Plenty of time for Manning and company.

In classic useless Madden fashion, the Colts keep running the ball and calling timeout for no reason.  Now they have to punt with :29 left on the clock.   Brees will start on the Saints 35 yard line and :19 to go.

No real action to speak of, and that’s the half.  Stats are pretty close at the half, just like the score.  The Saints have 234 yards of total offense and the Colts have 181.  The major difference is the Colts have not moved the ball on the ground, with only 7 yards, while Reggie Bush has, well, 128 yards by himself.

Here are the key halftime stats:

Manning: 11 of 13 for 174 yards and 2 TDs
Brees:  8 of 14 for 96 yards and 1 TD
Bush:  7 carries 128 yards, 3 rec 33 yards 1 TD
Clark:  4 rec 51 yards
Garcon:  3 rec 95 yards
Henderson: 2 rec 39 yards

Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne each have one catch, and Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, and Joseph Addai have made only minor impacts to the game so far.  No turnovers in the first half

Onto the 2^nd half, Colts Lead 14-10:

The Saints get the ball to start the second half and immediately start moving the ball down the field.  Bush, Shockey, and Pierre Thomas are all making plays on this drive, and it’s clear electronic Drew Brees is intent on making this a game.  On 3^rd down and 10 from the Colts 12, Indy brings the DB blitz and Brees hits Bush for a 12-yard score.  New Orleans has its first lead of the game, 17-14.

On the ensuing drive, a couple big plays to Addai and Clark get it started, putting the Colts in Saint territory rather quickly.  On 2^nd and 8, the Colts lose 3 on a toss to Addai and can’t recover on 3^rd down.  Matt Stover hits the field goal, but a holding penalty puts them out of field goal range and the Saints are instead pinned down on the 9 yard line with a punt.

Saints will start there, and bust into Colt territory with back to back strikes to Robert Meachem for 32 and 17 yards.  As the 3^rd quarter ends, this really does look like the Colts vs. Saints match-up we expect to see on Sunday.

As the 4^th quarter begins, Meachem remains the key to the drive as he scores on a 6 yard crossing pattern.  Saints lead 24-14.

The Colts go for it on 4^th and 6, and fall just short.  Upon review Austin Collie appeared to first touch the ball over the 1^st down marker, however bobbled it and didn’t retain possession until after he was forced back across the marker.  A small twist of fate perhaps, and karma recovering for the Kevin Faulk 4^th and 2?  Hmmm…

Saints take over, but go 3 and out.  They punt, and Peyton will start on his own 20 yard line, down by 10 with 2:35 to go.  Big catch by Garcon along the sidelines, but New Orleans challenges and it’s ruled an incomplete pass.  That was a 40 yard play turned around.  Unphased, Manning completes his next two passes, and will have a 2^nd and 7 at the two minute warning on his own 43 yard line.  On 3^rd and 10 Manning completes a pass to Wayne for 7 yards, then just overthrows Collie on 4^th and 3 along the sidelines.  Another turnover on downs for Peyton.  I think he just made the Manning face.

Uh-oh for the Colts, Bush just caught a screen pass and busted it for 20 yards.  With 1:09 left, the end could be near for the Indianapolis Colts.

Brees continues to complete passes, and it’s announced that Bush is the Super Bowl MVP as he makes yet another TD catch, this one for 16 yards.  The nail in the coffin for Indy blue, as the Saints extend the lead to 31-14.

Super Bowl Extra-Large 4 comes to an end with the Saints on top 31-14.

Reggie Bush finally lives up to the hype and earns himself that contract extension.  His final stat line is pretty impressive: 12 carries 163 yards, 9 rec 94 yards 3 TDs.

Brees has a pretty good day for himself as well, ending 22 of 33 for 279 yards and 4 TDs.

Other key stats for this game:

Manning: 23-32 297 yards 2 TDs
Clark: 7 rec 94 yards 1 TD

Garcon: 5 rec 102 yards 1 TD
Meachem: 3 rec 55 yards 1 TD

Fourteen players make receptions in this game, and neither team turned the ball over (except for Indy’s two turnovers on downs).  In addition, there were no sacks recorded.

Well, I’m not sure how accurate these stat lines are, or how realistic the idea of Peyton Manning being shut out in the 2^nd half of the Super Bowl is.  What I do know is that this game is packed full of offense, with superstars on both sides of the ball.  At any moment, either team could break out with a big play resulting in an exciting Super Bowl.  I even enjoyed watching the stupid Madden simulation.

If nothing else, nobody can say the two best teams didn’t get a shot to bring home glory.  My gut instinct though:

I’m with Brees, Bush, Colston, Sharper, Madden and the Saints.  38-34.

Thanks for reading all year.  Enjoy the game, and I’ll see you in the spring for some Spring Training highlights from Sunny Arizona!

Broadway Joe

Welcome back to my second to last pick’em article of the year.  I went against my gut in all four games in the divisional round, and how did it turn out?  Two right, two wrong.  What’s that mean?  I’m not sure.  What I am sure about is that the match-up in the NFC that I was hoping for came to pass, and I’m getting more and more excited about the match-up in the AFC.  There’s fantastic history between the Colts and Jets, dating back to “the guarantee” by Joe Namath.

So welcome to Conference Championship Weekend, and I’m going to take the same approach to analyzing these games as I took to analyze the College Bowl Games.  I won that pool and knew nearly nothing about most of those teams.  The NFL I know, or at least pretend to know.  So here it comes, the analysis I promised last week.

Just like the NFL, I’m going to start with the AFC match-up.

The Colts and Jets play at 3PM EST, (1PM Mustachio Standard Time)

In the minds of most fans outside of New Jersey, this one is an obvious bet.  The Colts could have gone undefeated had they played the whole season, and the talent on this team is as good as any Indianapolis has ever fielded.  I’m not in New Jersey though, and I’m not sold on the Colts as a clear victor.

For starters, the Colts are one of two teams that had the chance to eliminate the Jets prior to the post-season.  As most fans know by now, the Colts rolled over like Benji in Week 16, helping Rex Ryan realize his team was not, in fact, eliminated from contention.  The Bengals played a similar game against New York in Week 17, leading to a Wild Card exit for Cincinnati by guess who, the Jets.  The Colts may find out now, when it really counts, that maybe they should have tried a bit harder in what appeared to be a meaningless game in Week 16.

Mustachio Matchups:

Revis & Wayne

Reggie Wayne vs. Darrelle Revis

All year Revis has been lock down and drag out against the best wide receivers in the game.  Randy Moss (twice), Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens (twice), Torry Holt, Roddy White, Chad Ochocinco (twice), Steve Smith, and ahem, Reggie Wayne.  This is the list of receivers Revis has held under 100 yards receiving this season.

Last week in San Diego, they moved Revis around instead of locking him onto Vincent Jackson all game.  The result:  Jackson finished with seven catches for 111 yards.  There are rumors Ryan will be moving Revis around again on Sunday, matching him against Dallas Clark at times.  I don’t think that will happen.  Wayne is the best the Colts have to offer, and Revis is capable of making this game a 10 vs. 10 match-up, while he and Reggie watch the rest of the game from their island.  As Patriot fans saw earlier this season, if Wayne gets put on an inferior corner, he’ll make key plays that will eventually lead to an Indianapolis victory.

Advantage:  Revis

Dallas Clark vs. The Jets linebackers/safeties

Clark vs. Rhodes

With Darrelle and Reggie on an island, Peyton’s next best friend is Dallas Clark.  I’m not sure the Jets have one player who can cover Clark all game.  They’ll have to disguise their coverages using combinations of Bart Scott, David Harris, Kerry Rhodes, and Justin Leonhard.  Rex Ryan’s number one defense has the tools to mitigate Dallas Clark, and if they can get into Peyton’s head early, this could be a low scoring affair, tipping the scales towards New York.

Advantage:  Well that depends on…

Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan

Rex Ryan has fielded the top scoring defense in the league in just his first year in New York.  He proved with the Ravens that his defensive schemes are incredibly difficult to recognize and even tougher to score against.  He’s also proved that he can walk in anywhere and implement that scheme in a limited amount of time.

Manning Face (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Earlier this year, I wrote the Jets off immediately following the injury to DT Kris Jenkins; even sooner than Rex wrote his own squad off.  Instead of crumbling, the team found their legs and now find themselves in the AFC Championship.

Peyton Manning is… well… he’s Peyton Manning.  He can take over any game and lead his team to victory.  We’ve seen “The Manning Face” less and less over the past few years, and this year it was nearly non-existent.  In fact, the only time it showed up was in Week 16 against the Jets, and that was only because Coach Caldwell pulled him, essentially forfeiting the undefeated season.  The key for Peyton is to recognize the defense and audible to plays that will take advantage of each situation.  If he does that successfully Clark, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Joseph Addai will all be able to make plays and help move the football down field without need for Reggie Wayne.  If Ryan keeps Manning off balance we will see sacks, turnovers, and dropped passes.

Advantage:  I think this defense is who we think they are (thanks Denny Green), and the Colts will let ‘em off the hook!  I’m nervous for the Colts, because the Jets seem to have had an energy about them ever since their defeat of the Colts in the regular season.  That energy is contagious on the field, and scary to opposing players, coaches, and fans.  Rex Ryan will have Peyton’s number on Sunday.

Jets Offensive Line vs. Colts Front 7 Defense

This match-up is also contingent upon the Rex Ryan/Peyton Manning match-up.  If Ryan wins this match-up, as I’ve predicted, the Jets will have the opportunity to run the football.  In addition, an early Peyton interception or frequent early punting situations for the Colts could take the crowd out of the game.

Indy was ranked 24^th in the league this year in rushing yards against, typical of a team with smaller defensive lineman such as Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.  The Jets ranked first in rushing yards per game this season, also typical for a team starting a rookie quarterback.  There’s no question that the pace of this game, as set by the Colts Offense/Jets Defense will determine how effective the Jets can be offensively.

The most important factor Indy has on its side is home-field advantage.  The crowd needs to be loud early, so the sound techs can record it and put it on repeat for the entire game.  When the Jets control a game on the road, it’s by playing solid defense and running the football.  That means long, controlled, boring drives.  Fans will be sitting on their hands, instead of cupping them and yelling through them.  If the Jets can’t settle the crowd down, Mark Sanchez will struggle in this big game and his teammates won’t be able to hear him.

Advantage:  Colts Front 7

Jets Special Teams vs. Colts Special Teams

Smith

This game could come down to blocked kicks, missed kicks, and long kick/punt returns for points or field position advantages.  The Colts need to control this portion of the game.  If they find themselves punting early, my advice is to punt high and punt far.  Don’t let Brad Smith get a chance to make plays in the open field, because Indy will find themselves backed up in their own red zone trying to stop a smash-mouth football team.

One X-factor to also keep in mind, the Jets are one of the least penalized teams in the league.  They don’t make mental errors in key situations, so if Bart Scott or Calvin Pace has a late hit on Dallas Clark out of bounds, you’ll know Indy is about to light up the scoreboard.

So how do I think this one will turn out?  Jets go into Indy as a pit stop on their way to Miami, while Manning gets to play in the Pro Bowl next week.

NYJ 20 – IND 17

Saints vs. Vikings at 6:40PM EST (4:40PM Mustachio Standard Time)

The late game is the one most fans are looking forward to seeing.  I’ve heard more than once, “I don’t care who wins, I just want to see a good game.”  I think that’s exactly what we’re going to get from the Vikings and Saints on Sunday in the NFC Championship.

Favre

Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees

These are the guys we’re tuning in to see hit the gridiron.  Drew Brees has had statistically dominating seasons the last three years and is ready to take the step in his career that truly places him in the same conversation as Manning, Brady, Warner, and Favre.  That step is to contend for and win a Super Bowl.  He has weapons at his disposal at every position, and can score from anywhere on the field on any play.  He doesn’t rattle in the fourth quarter, demonstrated by the Saints leading the league in fourth quarter points.  That statistic is an important one when it comes to winning in the playoffs.

Brett Favre.  Yes, we’re still talking about Brett Favre.  The fantastic news about the discussion is that he’s still relevant this late in his career and this late in the season.  He’s arguably the best he’s ever been right now.  With only seven interceptions in 2009, he’s making fantastic choices with the football and everyone around him is benefiting from him being a Viking.  Whether you’re tired of hearing about Brett Favre, or he’s still one of your favorite players, you have to admit that he’s an awesome player right now and the playoffs are nothing new to Favre.  In fact, he beat the Patriots in the Superdome in Super Bowl XXXI.

Advantage:  Brett Favre

Colston/Meachem/Henderson/Shockey vs. Rice/Berrian/Harvin/Shiancoesain

Henderson taking off on the Pats

The receiving corps for both teams are extremely balanced.  Both teams have deep threats in Robert Meachem/Devory Henderson and Bernard Berrian/Percy Harvin.  Both teams have a true number one receiver, Colston for the Saints and Sidney Rice for the Vikings.  Both teams have a pass catching Tight End that makes a great end zone target, Jeremy Shockey and Visanthe Shiancoe.

Sidney Rice scored three touchdowns against Dallas in the Divisional game, and has more than a few fantasy owners scratching their head about his value next year.  When the Vikings faced the Cardinals earlier this year, an announcer referred to Rice insultingly as a poor man’s Larry Fitzgerald.  Well, I wouldn’t call him a poor man’s anything right now, because if he performs on Sunday, he could be talked about next year as highly as Fitzgerald himself was this year.

If I had to choose a corp though, I’d have to take the Saints receivers.  They are all versatile and Brees trusts all of them to make a play on any down without question.  Throw into the mix Lance Moore who has been worked back into the fold after missing most of the year with injury.  The best receiver is the open one, and they can all get open.

Advantage:  Saints

Bush/Thomas/Bell vs. Peterson/Taylor

Peterson & Taylor

I love how the stars continue to roll out in this match-up review.  Adrian Peterson has looked downright human in the second half of the season, and again last week against the Cowboys.  Perhaps he’s beginning to wear down after receiving a heavy workload the last two seasons.  He hasn’t broken the big plays he had earlier this year and last year.

The key for the Grape APE is that he continues to get carries and hold onto the football.  No fumbling gives Favre an opportunity to make big plays in the passing game with play action, and that’s how the Vikings have been scoring points.  Chester Taylor has been the perfect compliment in this running game since Peterson came to town.  He is a sure handed back who makes big plays on third down and does a good job helping the offensive line when pocket protection is in order.  To me, Peterson and Taylor are the best one-two punch in the NFL.

The committee in New Orleans is effective and operates just like the receiving corp.  The hot hand gets the ball.  Last week, the hot hand was Reggie Bush.  He’s playing for the eight million he’s suppose to receive next year and taking advantage of his opportunity to perform in the playoffs.  He’s regularly inconsistent, so I’m not sure we’ll see the same player on Sunday versus the Vikings.

Advantage:  Vikings

Some key X-Factors to consider going into this week:

Allen (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

The Vikings have a fantastic run defense, again.  The Saints could be made a one dimensional passing team, but look for them to work in some draw plays and play action to keep the Vikings off balance.  This could be good news for Jared Allen, as he should be able to focus on rushing the passer, but it could also be terrible news for the Vikings secondary.

After Cedric Griffen and Antoine Winfield, the Vikes don’t have the talent in the secondary to cover all the Saints receivers plus Reggie Bush in the passing game.  DE Ray Edwards, who had a great game against Dallas before leaving with a leg injury, has not practiced this week.  Minnesota will definitely miss his contributions if he can’t play at full speed.  They’ll have to get Brees on the ground and rattle him, which doesn’t happen easily, and will be even tougher without Edwards.

Saints safety Darren Sharper and Brett Favre were teammates in Green Bay when the Packers defeated the Patriots.  That was the last Super Bowl Victory for either player and both know their careers are coming to and end.  At least Sharper knows it, who knows what Brett Favre really believes.  At this point, he probably thinks he could play into his 60’s.  More importantly than the fact about Sharper being Favre’s teammate in Green Bay is the fact that Sharper is the biggest play maker in the Saints secondary.  He needs to have a standout day to keep the Vikings off the scoreboard.

Last week it became apparent to me there was one major flaw in the Vikings defense that could and will result in a Saints win on Sunday.  I hate to call out one player, especially a rookie fifth round draft pick who was thrust into his role as a result of a terrible broken leg to the starting MLB, EJ Henderson, however, Jasper Brinkley is still showing signs that he is not prepared to be the starting MLB for a Super Bowl caliber team.  That position is the QB of the defense, and in the Vikings defense, needs to be a player that diagnoses plays quickly and flows to the football and makes tackles.

WHO DAT?! Super Bowl bound!

With Kevin and Pat Williams up front, for Brinkley to bite on misdirection running plays and play action the way he does could spell disaster for the Vikings.  Brees will be able to manipulate him and control the underneath passing game without that inside presence.  To me, this means the Saints will generate more third and short situations and be able to convert third downs at a higher percentage.  In the end, that will lead to more scoring.  More Saint Scoring means the New Orleans Saints will be taking a trip to Miami in Super Bowl XLIV.

Final Prediction:

Saints 34 Vikings 31

Look for a Pro Bowl Track Card next week.  I’ll see you in two weeks with my Super Bowl Predictions and according to this prognosticator; the Super Bowl Extra Large Four matchup will be the New Orleans Saints versus the New York Jets.

For that, I’m sorry.

For the next apology, the Patriots, Bengals, and Eagles owe it to each and every one of us. Could these three teams have played any worse last weekend? If you listened to the 4SportBoston podcast, I noted that I couldn’t even watch the Packers / Cardinals game after the Pack fell down 17-0 early. I turned it off and missed the most entertaining game of the weekend.

This weekend, I promise to watch all games in their entirety, with the exception of the time I spend driving to and from the Baer’s Den in Tempe, AZ on Saturday for the Red Sox Nation Arizona Event Planning “meeting”.

With all this out of the way, and my playoff losing streak continued, much like the lowly Bengals own streak, I’ll go ahead and tell you who will lose this weekend. I’m basing all of my picks this week on my analysis of the Football Universe Karma Utility Factor (also known as the FUKU Factor). The FUKU Factor actively participated in the outcome of the Wild Card Round, and should come into play again this weekend.

(AP Photo/Matt York)

Cardinals over Saints

I really think the Saints are the better team here and should win this game at home. Kurt Warner is getting hot though, and that could spell danger for the boys from the bayou. At the very least, we should see offense in abundance in the first game of the weekend.

Final score according to the FUKU Factor:  17-14 Cardinals

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Indy hasn’t played a serious game in a month, and the Ravens are playing some of the best grind it out win in the playoffs type of football out of the remaining eight teams. Baltimore should be too physical and too angry about their loss to Indy earlier this year to lose again. I’m going against my gut once again, and I’m taking the Colts.

Final score according to the FUKU Factor:  38-9 Colts

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Cowboys over Vikings

I said it in Week 17, and still believe it. Of all the teams that needed a bye week, the Vikings were at the top of the list. Hopefully the Grape Ape spent his two weeks off locked in a room with Tiki Barber learning to hold onto the football, because if he didn’t, the Vikings will be golfing next week.

Like the Ravens, the Cowboys are playing grind it out football the way it needs to be played. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, with the exception of a Week 14 shocker over the Saints, the only thing the Cowboys have proved is they can beat the Eagles. The Eagles were a good team, but beating a division rival you know has no running game doesn’t help you stop Adrian Peterson. Once again, against the gut, I’m taking the Cowboys.

Final score according to the FUKU Factor:  28-19, Cowboys

"I like your picks El Mustachio!" (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

Jets over Chargers

There’s no way the Jets can win this game. There’s just no way…  Right?

Final score according to the FUKU Factor:  11-3 Jets

So there are my pseudo unbiased picks. I’d love to see Ravens/Chargers and Vikings/Saints next week, so I’m picking against that hope. I’m not sure how the football universe will react to my ploy, but we’ll certainly find out how well I fooled it in the next two days.

Next week:  DETAILED Championship Game previews with REAL football analysis.

What a crazy NFL season. We had near undefeated teams completely throw their season, near undefeated teams completely collapse, a playoff chase that included seven teams in the AFC going into Week 17, a 40 year old QB take his team to a bye week and a rookie QB riding his defense into a wild card spot.

This year’s playoff includes a busload of superstar and up-and-coming quarterbacks:  Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez… and also Carson Palmer and Tony Romo are there.

Of these quarterbacks, four have rings and an additional two more have been to the big game at least once. Three on this list played in conference championship games. Three players have never won a playoff game: Aaron Rodgers (second year as a starter after sitting behind Brett Favre for several years), Mark Sanchez (let’s give this guy a break here, he’s a rookie), Carson Palmer (Carson suffered a severe knee injury in the final game of the 2005 season, and was unable to participate in the only playoff game the Bengals have played in since he joined the team in 2003, a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and hasn’t been the same player since that injury), and Tony Romo.

It’s the playoffs, so screw the spreads.  I’m picking winners! Home team underlined.

Philadelphia over Dallas

Tony Romo, professional choke artist. In Romo’s first playoff appearance in 2006, he dropped the snap on an extra point try, then stumbled toward the end zone only to fall down on the 2-yard line. The result was a 21-20 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. In 2007, Romo, no longer holding for field goals and extra points, ended the Cowboys season with a fourth quarter interception to then-Giants cornerback, R.W. McQuarters.

Here in 2009 (this is the 2009 season, by the way), The Cowboys come into the playoffs as the division winner and will host the Eagles for the second straight week. The Cowboys have defeated the Eagles twice this season. It would appear Dallas has the advantage this week after an absolute dismantling of the Eagles in Week 17.

However, I’m going the other way.  I think it’s the making for a perfect storm. Romo is holding kicks again, and has to be feeling good about their chances this weekend. I’m no karmic expert, but I think the universe has it in for Tony Romo, and we’re going to see it again on Saturday.

New England over Baltimore

Mr. Pho of the 4SportBoston crew gave a darn good breakdown of the Ravens/Patriots matchup, and I’ll let it stand. I’ll just tell you my pick and move along. I know we’re in trouble without Wes Welker, and the Ravens have just the type of running attack we struggle to match-up against, however, maybe the Welker injury works in our favor this week.

At least it will make the Ravens guess early what we’re going to try to do. All season it’s been Welker, Welker, Welker, Welker, Welker, Moss touchdown. Well something will have to change for us to move the ball, and I don’t think you, me, or the Ravens know what BB has in mind.

Cincinnati over NYJ

The Bengals were embarrassed last week. They played their starters for most of the game and couldn’t get anything going on offense against this same Jets team. This week they get back to doing what they do best, run the football. Chad Ochocinco had some key drops in Week 17, and I’m sure he’s been beating himself up over it all week, since, you know, he’s so hard on himself. Anyway, this one is going to be close, and if either team scores 20 points I’ll be scatterbrain shocked.

Green Bay over Arizona

I watched some of this game last week, and saw the Cardinals lay down. This was probably a good strategy for the them. It kept Kurt Warner off the turf and maybe even gave the Packers some overconfidence. I don’t think it matters though. I think the Packers are a better team and their defense is just playing great right now. Factor in the knee injuries suffered by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Anquan Boldin, and I’m really leaning towards the cheeseheads.

This only leaves one final claim.

My Super Bowl Extra-Large-4 picks:

I’m always going to root for the Pats, but without Welker, I just can’t make that pick.

I am going to go ahead and make my pre-playoff Super Bowl pick here, I’m sure this will evolve in the meantime:

Minnesota Vikings over San Diego Chargers. There, I did it.  I know the Vikings have some issues, especially defensively with EJ Henderson gone and Antoine Winfield apparently not 100 percent healthy. However, provided Adrian Peterson takes some time during the bye week to practice holding onto the football, the Vikings can score points with anyone. Also, the Chargers are the best team in the AFC right now, but I won’t put money on a Norv Turner coached team to win a Super Bowl until it’s over.

Or will I? I just flip flopped.

Final pick:

San Diego Chargers over Green Bay Packers

Didn’t see that coming did you?  Well there it is, that’s my pick.

In the NFL, the resolutions are different and depending on the franchise, equally as unlikely to happen as our own resolutions.

(Getty Images)

So what do these teams need to change this year as some others start a playoff run? Some teams will be watching bowl games hoping to land themselves Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, or Jimmy Clausen in this year’s draft, and hoping their franchise players don’t have off-season killing injuries in the final game of the season.

By the way, why isn’t Freddie Barnes, the kid from Bowling Green who has 155 catches and 19 touchdowns even ranked by ESPN? He had 17 catches for over 200 yards and 2 TD’s in the Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl against Idaho.

The first resolution is for the NFL Owners and Players Union to come to terms on a new contract. Facing the potential of an uncapped year in 2010 and possibly even a lockout in 2011, a deal has to get done to keep the NFL rolling and the fans happy.

Not sure if you knew this NFL, but the fans are your customers. I don’t think the NFL will tank the way the NHL did when they locked out, but it’s been a long road to recovery for the NHL, and if you ask anyone at 4SportBoston (besides Chaz), not a single one of us could tell you players names or cite rule changes since the lockout. I’m still pretty sure Adam Oates plays for the Bruins.

On to the individual teams…

Indianapolis +8.5 over Buffalo

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

I know the Colts are throwing away the rest of their season, but to lose by 8.5 points playing Buffalo’s starters who are probably about the same skill level as the Colts’ backups is absurd. The Bills are out of the playoff picture too, so there’s nothing really to be won or lost in this game.

In fact, if the Bills lose, it helps their draft position. No team will admit to that, but the GM’s and the scouts are definitely thinking it in the back of their minds.

Colts Resolution: Get your starters back on the field for at least a half of football this week. You have a bye week next week to rest up, and you don’t want to be rusty. You’ve lost in past playoff tries with this strategy of resting your players, and I know you’re trying to keep guys from getting hurt, but it’s going to hurt your playoff run.

Bills Resolution: Lose this game. You’re sitting at the ninth overall pick in the draft right now.  If the cards fall right for you this weekend, you could be picking as high as fifth. You need a new quarterback and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford projects somewhere between fourth and ninth overall.

Jacksonville +1.5 over Cleveland

Cleveland has won three in a row putting them out of contention for the top pick in the draft.  Jacksonville controlled their own destiny a few weeks ago, and now needs a truckload of luck to get into the playoffs.

Browns Resolution: Win this one at home. You’ve just hired a new GM, Mike Holmgren, so at this point everyone is playing for their job. Mike can make a good pick no matter where he is on the draft board, so it’s more important to go into this off season with a four game win streak and a mindset towards continuing that streak in 2010.

Jaguars Resolution: You have to win this one, but don’t expect much as a result.  Face it coach JackDel Rio, this season is blown. Go hide for a few months, hope you don’t get fired, make some good free agent changes (see: cornerback, add one) and enjoy the golfing season.

Chicago over Detroit +3

Yes, we’re going with Chicago here.  Matthew Stafford is gone, Kevin Smith is gone.  It should be a no brainer.

Bears Resolution: Offensive line. You have to bulk up your offensive line. You’ll get Brian Urlacher back next year, and we all knew your season was hosed the minute he went down in Week One (much the way Pats fans knew our season was done when Tom Brady went down in Week One in 2008). You can easily find offensive line help in free agency. If you can’t run the ball in the windy city, you can’t win games. That’s why you’re not in the playoff picture this year.

Lions Resolution: Lose this one and you’ve got the second overall pick locked up. Stafford will be back next year, and you know you’ve got a kid who can win some games for you there. Help out your defense. Either Nebraska’s DT Suh or Oklahoma’s DT Gerald McCoy will be available, and both are projected to go top three. You need to stop the run in a division with Adrian Peterson if you ever hope to become relevant.

San Francisco over St. Louis +7

The Niners are out of the playoff picture, but I don’t see them handing the final game away. That is un-Mike Singletary like. The Rams just aren’t good enough.

49ers Resolution: Is Alex Smith really the solution here? Singletary, pick an offense. Are you run first, or are you working out of spread formations? There’s a lot of decisions that need to be made in San Francisco before this team can hope to knock out the Cardinals as division champs. Make them and stick to your guns.

Rams Resolution: Congratulations St. Louis, you have the number one pick! Take Suh. The man is a beast. Look for a quarterback with your pick in the second round… Or offensive line… Or more defense. Let’s face it, you’ve got holes all over the field and no realistic plan to replace Steven Jackson. Take Suh though, the man is a beast.

Miami +3 over Pittsburgh

I don’t know why I like Miami here. I just do. Both teams have outside shots at getting into the playoffs. One of them definitely won’t make it, and I think it’s the Steelers.

(Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images)

Dolphins Resolution: Win this game and go into the off season on a good note. Ronnie Brown will be back, and with Ricky Williams you’ve got a dynamo running core. I like Chad Henne too, he could turn into a winner in this league. He needs weapons in the passing game though. Ted Ginn Jr is not a reliable receiver, no matter how explosive he may be in the return game. Devone Bess is a good underneath option, but he hasn’t broken a big play all year. Receiver Dez Bryant is available through the draft, and there could be a few options in free agency, but the Fins need to address that position.

Steelers Resolution:

Yes he extends plays and turns them into big gainers, but he needs to work on the clock in his head. Throw the ball away once in a while, you’ll find you won’t need as many of those big gainers when it’s not  second and 18.

NYG +9 over Minnesota

The Vikes will win this one, but not by nine points. The Giants really have nothing to play for, and are ready for this season to be over. It’s been an up and down battle for them all year, with only themselves to blame for not making a run this year.

Giants Resolution: Replace Antonio Pierce. He’s not the every down linebacker he used to be, and proved this season he could be subject to breakdown. It’s easier said than done, obviously, but it’s a requirement to have a middle linebacker who can quarterback your defense.

Vikings Resolution: Win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. To me, you need the bye week more than any other team in the NFC. Your defense is floundering without EJ Henderson and you need a week off to get your act together.

As a more long term goal, you need to put Adrian Peterson in a room alone with Tiki Barber for six months. His fumbling problems need to be addressed. That issue alone cost the Vikings home-field advantage and possibly even the bye week and if it continues, could cost them a Super Bowl.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay +2.5

Atlanta has Matt Ryan back, and that means a whole lot for this team’s chances. His mid season turf toe injury, combined with Michael Turner’s high ankle sprain, cost the Falcons a playoff run. They should win this game.

Falcons Resolution: Make sure you go into 2010 with a spell back for Michael Turner, and work on that defensive secondary. You’re in good shape though, a playoff run in 2010 is in the cards.

Bucs Resolution: If Josh Freeman is your answer, give him some weapons. He needs wide receivers. With the third overall pick though, a more reasonable selection would be Tennessee safety Eric Berry. The Bucs haven’t had an impact player at that position since John Lynch left, and he could be the anchor this defense needs.

New Orleans over Carolina (off)

New Orleans needs this win and Steve Smith has a broken arm.

Saints Resolution: Defense, Defense, Defense. That’s the mantra for the Saints in the playoffs. They’ve lost two in a row after starting 13-0. It’s time to get back on track, and make the run to the Super Bowl.

Panthers Resolution: Matt Moore has shown he can lead this team to victory, and may be the replacement for Jake Delhomme in 2010. If not Matt Moore, it needs to be someone though. Delhomme is inconsistent and the position needs to be addressed in the off season.

New England +8 over Houston

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

This game doesn’t mean a whole lot to the Pats for the playoff picture, but the Pats never lay down deliberately. It’s just not the Belichick way. Houston needs some help to get into the playoffs, but I expect a Pats win, so good luck next year.

Patriots Resolution: Get back to the basics. Embrace the field goal as a viable scoring method, they make the difference. There’s no reason to go for it on fourth and two from the six yard line. It’s okay to punt too, play for field position. That’s how you win in the playoffs, so do it. They can beat any team on any week, so play like it.

Texans Resolution: The three headed monster of Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats, and Chris Brown at running back has been ineffective at best this season. I’m not sure if it’s the offensive line or the guys with the ball, but it needs to be figured out. This team is on the verge, and if they can figure out how to beat the Colts, of making the next step as a franchise.

Philadelphia +3 over Dallas

This could be the biggest game of the week in terms of playoff position. The winner takes the NFC East and gets home-field advantage in the first round. If the Eagles win, they have next week off and home-field advantage in the divisional round as well.

Eagles Resolution: Win in Big D and take a week off to prepare for round two. The road still goes through New Orleans though, but with the way Minnesota and New Orleans have played of late, the door is wide open in the NFC.

Cowboys Resolution: The Cowboys need this win too, and in order to do it, DeMarcus Ware needs a big day rushing Donovan McNabb. Michael Jenkins is turning into a good cornerback, but the Eagles deep passing game is too good for the ‘Boys if they don’t get pressure on Donovan. If they lose, they have to go to Minnesota next week, and I don’t think anybody wants to go there. Their biggest resolution is to win in the playoffs though. At some point, the finger will have to be pointed at Wade Phillips and Tony Romo if they can’t get a win.

Kansas City +13 over Denver

Okay, so I don’t think KC will win, but 13 is too large a spread against a Denver team without Brandon Marshall, who will be sitting on Sunday with a nagging hamstring.

Chiefs Resolution: Win this game and spoil the Broncos playoff bid. After that, get some help for your offensive line. ESPN’s Todd McShay projects you taking OK State’s OT Russell Okung, and I can’t disagree with your need for a stud left tackle. There was a time when the Chiefs had a dominant O-line, and if they want to compete with the Broncos and Chargers again, they need to get back there. Matt Cassel needs to be protected.

Broncos Resolution: I’m really quite surprised Marshall won’t be playing Sunday. Maybe it’s part of his plan to let the Broncos know how much he’s worth in the event of a Denver loss here. Conspiracy theories aside, they should win either way, and are next in line to make the playoffs in the event of a Ravens or Jets loss. In the off-season, they have the Bears’ first round pick, which means an early round pick. At this point, look for a play-maker on offense or defense, a difference maker that can turn games in your direction.

(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Oakland +10.5 over Baltimore

This could be our upset of playoff teams that control their own destiny. Oakland can win this game at home, and send the Ravens home for the season. In fact, I just called that.

Raiders Resolution: Re-sign Richard Seymour somehow. Otherwise, your 2011 first overall pick goes for nought, and you have to spend your 2010 first round pick to replace him with Florida DE Carlos Dunlap. Apparently he’s got questionable work ethic and a DUI, so he’ll fit right in with the silver and black. The most important advice I can give to Al Davis is to let go. Hire someone to run the team for you or you won’t see another winner before you take the infinite dirt nap.

Ravens Resolution: Baltimore needs a wide receiver. They got lucky that Desmond Mason decided to play another season. I’m certainly not sure he’ll make the same move in 2010, and in that event Joe Flacco will have no options in the passing game. Mark Clayton is not a number one receiver. Available Wide Receivers in the draft are Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, and Mardy Gilyard.

Green Bay +3.5 over Arizona

This game doesn’t mean much to either team, but depending on the outcome of the weekends games, these teams could be facing each other again next week.  Both teams should try to avoid that scenario.

Packers Resolution: You’ve done a good job adapting to a new 3-4 defensive scheme this year, and if I’m you, I stay on that track. Look for a cornerback to help out aging Charles Woodson and Al Harris. In the meantime, focus on winning playoff games. They’ve got as good a chance as any other NFC team to go the distance, and I think they’d like another shot at Minnesota.

Cardinals Resolution: In position to make it back to the Super Bowl, that is the Cardinals goal. Keep Kurt Warner on his feet and in the pocket and they can do that. In the off season, re-sign Darnell Dockett. He’s not a happy man when it comes to his contract, but needs to be because he’s a force on the Arizona defensive line.

San Diego over Washington +4

(AP Photo/John Russell)

San Diego is good enough to win this game with LaDanian Tomlinson on the bench, and will do just that.

Chargers Resolution: The talk around town is that this is the Chargers year.  They certainly look like the team to beat in the AFC, as questions about the Colts dedication to excellence surface.  Although, the Chargers haven’t gotten it done in the playoffs in recent years with this group, led by LDT. Play like they have in the second half of the season, and they could be the AFC representative in the big game.

Redskins Resolution: Is the Jason Campbell experiment over yet in Washington? Certainly the Jim Zorn experiment is over. There will be changes in Washington, and Mike Shanahan as the head coach could be the best off season move the Skins could make.

Tennessee +4 over Seattle

The Titans should win this game and still have an outside shot of going to the playoffs.

Titans Resolution: Playoffs or no Playoffs, this season was a success for Jeff Fischer and company. Though they started 0-6, they turned it around with vigor and rediscovered that Vince Young is a starting QB in the NFL and Chris Johnson established himself as possibly the most complete young running back in the league. WR Kenny Britt has also done well in his debut season, and should develop into a solid number two receiver or low end number one. In the off season, they should look for a true number one receiver if they can find one, and get younger in the defensive front seven.

Seahawks Resolution: Look for a Matt Hasselback replacement. He’s 35 and apparently prone to injury, and Seneca Wallace is not the answer. They have the Broncos first round pick, along with their own pick. Perhaps a reach on Bradford or Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen with one of those picks is in order.

Cincinnati +10 over NYJ

I’m not sure I could turn down a spread this large. Everyone is saying the Bengals will lay down like the Colts did last week, but I’m not so sure that’s true. If the Bengals lose to the Jets this week, they have to play them again next week. That’s not a good scenario for Cincy.

Bengals Resolution: Beat the Jets. This is Round One of the playoffs for Cincy. Then find some offense to go with their defense, otherwise they’re not going to go far in the playoffs. In the off season, look for a Tight End to compliment Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles.  If this team is going to run an offense like this, they need a Todd Heap/Heath Miller type of player in their offense.

Jets Resolution: Obviously start with a win on Sunday, then lose next week. I hate the Jets. They need to strengthen their offensive line in the off season.

So those are the resolutions, we’ll see how many of these teams follow through.

See you next week for the playoffs!

I failed to fill out my Yahoo! Picks multiple times this year, so I’m going to have to do some heavy analysis to figure out how many I got right this year. I’ll let you know the final tally next week, so you can decide if it’s worth it to listen to me next year.

Fortunately for all of us though, this is the fifth most exciting season in NFL history.  I base this on the fact that 24 teams still have playoff hopes.  Only eight teams have been eliminated with three weeks to go, which is the fifth fewest with three weeks to go since 16 game seasons began in 1978.    Nice stat, NFL.com.  Tie that into two teams remaining undefeated, and we have a fantastic last few weeks ahead of us.

One of those teams, the Indianapolis Colts, have already won their match-up in Week 15.  We watched Peyton conduct another fourth quarter comeback against the Jags, setting Jacksonville’s playoff hopes back, and moving them one airline ticket closer to becoming the Los Angeles Jaguars of Anaheim.

Rather than breakdown individual match-ups this week, I’m going to break down the playoff picture and how I think it will shape up for the rest of the season, starting with the AFC.

As of this moment, the playoff picture looks like this:

Indy has clinched their division and home field advantage in the conference.  They’ll have a bye week in the first round and provided they can keep their head in the game for the next four weeks, will be tough to beat at home in January.

San Diego hasn’t quite clinched the West, but can this weekend with a win and a Denver loss.   Unfortunately, it likely won’t happen for the sky blue Chargers this weekend as the Broncos draw the Raiders in Mile High.  San Diego has a fairly tough match-up at home against the Bengals.  Weeks 16 and 17 look like this for these two teams:

Denver @PHI, KC

San Diego @TEN, WAS

My score card has both teams winning week 15, losing week 16, and winning week 17.  Good news for the Chargers in that scenario.  However, if Denver takes care of business against the Eagles, and San Diego loses to Cincy, look out!  The NFL tie-breaking procedure is hard enough to follow that I have to look up the rules constantly and compare teams’ schedules side by side.

If Denver wins outright, including a victory over Philly, and San Diego loses to Cincinnati and Tennessee, both teams will be 11-5.  First tiebreaker is head to head match-up in which the teams split this year.  Tiebreaker number two is wins in the division, and both teams took care of business going 5-1 (if it plays out this way).  Tiebreaker number three is winning percentage against common opponents.  This would result in the Bengals game and a freak TD at the end of regulation in Week One resulting in the Broncos winning the division.

AP Photo/Al Behrman

If you’ll recall in Week One Brandon Stokley caught a 90-some yard TD pass that was tipped off of a Bengal defenders hands in the final minute in what was, up until that point, the most boring game of the week.  Well if the Chargers lose to Cincy, the Broncos will hold that tiebreaker edge and will win the division.

All of that is pretty interesting – unfortunately for the rest of the AFC it doesn’t quite matter much.  Both teams would be in the playoffs at 11-5.  Denver just gets the extra home game.

In the NFC North, Cincy still holds all the cards with a 9-4 season record and an undefeated division record.  All they need to do is win 1one of the next three games to capture the division title.  Honestly, I don’t think it will be this weekend in San Diego, but it will definitely be next weekend at home against the Chiefs.  The Criminengals finish off their season in the Meadowlands against the hated New York Jets.

Unfortunately, the AFC East is really the wild card division in all this.  The Pats are in the driver’s seat with an 8-5 record, but the Jets and Dolphins are both 7-6.  Let’s look at the remaining schedules and pick a division winner, shall we?  We shall.

Pats @BUF, JAX, @HOU

Dolphins @TEN, HOU, PIT

Jets ATL, @IND, CIN

At first glance, it appears the Pats have the easiest schedule.  However, they do have two road games, and we all know they haven’t fared well on the road this year.  They have to win at Buffalo to keep the division record tied with Miami.  If the Dolphins win out however, and the Pats drop any one of these games, the Dolphins will win the third tiebreaker and will win the division.  In other words, in order to win the division, the Pats must have a better record than the Dolphins and at least the same record as the Jets.

The Jets have it harder.  Having been swept by the Dolphins, and finishing the division with a 2-4 record, the Jets don’t win any tiebreaker scenarios against either the Pats or Dolphins.  That means they have to have the best record in the division.

If I am the Jets though, I have to be pleased at my three week look ahead.  Beating the Falcons is not a mystery to anyone and the Jets could be drawing the Colts and Bengals at the best possible time.  It’s likely Indy will begin resting players next weekend against the Jets and the Bengals should have their division locked up by Week 17.

If the Bengals win the next two and Denver loses in either Week 15 or 16, Cincy will also have clinched a round one bye (Denver holds the tiebreaker over Cincy with the previously mentioned week one miracle TD.)  In those scenarios, the Jets could come up with victories against better teams, and possibly triumph as the AFC East champs.

So those are the divisions.  As for the wild card, it’s anyone’s guess how this could turn out.  With so many division titles yet undecided, maybe we can talk about the wild card in week 17.  For now, these are the teams that are still in the running and their schedules:

Baltimore 7-6 CHI, @PIT, @OAK

Jacksonville 7-7 @NE, @CLE

Pittsburgh 6-7 GB, BAL, @MIA

Tennessee 6-7 MIA, SD, @SEA

Houston 6-7 @STL, @MIA, NE

If I were going to put money down, I’d plan on losing all of it.  For now, I’ll just make my picks:

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

New Orleans over Dallas +7.  Nobody beats the Saints in that stadium, not even the worthless Cowboys.

Buffalo +7 over New England.  I think the Pats will break their road losing streak this week, but I’m not prepared to give them seven points to go along with it.

Detroit +12 over Arizona.  I hate the Cardinals.  They do nothing but ruin my pick’em percentages.

Tennessee over Miami (even).  Tough draw for the Dolphins.  If I were to pick one team to win out, and one team only, I’d take the Titans.  Two home games, albeit against tough teams, and a cupcake game against Seattle.  Lookout for the 0-6 Titans everybody.

KC over Cleveland +1.5.  Ehh… why not?

Houston over St. Louis (even).  This could be their last win of the year.

NYJ over Atlanta (over).  As I said, no mystery on how to beat the Falcons.

San Fran +9 over Philly – I hate the Niners like I hate the Cardinals.  Eagles win the game though.

Baltimore over Chicago +10.5.  Ravens offense woke back up last week and could be a sign of future success.

Oakland +14 over Denver.  Denver wins, but not by 14.

Green Bay +1.5 over Pittsburgh.  Really?  Pittsburgh is a favorite here?

Seattle over Tampa Bay +7.  These two teams came into the league together and faced off that year, both teams completely defeated to that point.  This game rivals that one.

Minnesota over Carolina +9.  The Vikings are just too good for the Panthers.  When does Brett start resting for the playoffs though?

NYG over Washington +3.  This game could be a push.  I kind of expect it to go into OT with a Giants victory.

Next week we break down the NFC playoff picture and/or AFC wild card picture, so stay tuned!  If I made any errors this week, let me know.

So here it is, tomorrow!

With that loss to Cleveland, the castle has officially been stormed and the Steelers are no longer the defending champs.  I mean, the season doesn’t have to be over, they just need to be eliminated, which of course with a best case scenario for Pittsburgh 9-7 record, they are eliminated.  That means we’ll definitely have a new champion this year, although most everyone outside of Pittsburgh knew this by week six.

So who’s going this weekend, and which games matter most?

New Orleans vs. Atlanta +10.5

When these teams faced off last time, Atlanta was a different team.  Injuries to Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, and the Falcons defense have turned this team from a playoff contender (and my preseason super bowl pick) into a puddle of “maybe next year.”  For all the 6-6 teams near elimination, the Falcons have the toughest draw this week.  To beat the undefeated Saints, even at home, is not a likely scenario this week.  The Saints struggled last week against the Redskins, finally winning in OT.  It seemed the Saints just didn’t get up for that game.  I don’t think that will be the case this week against a division foe.

Take the Saints, even with the 10.5 point spread 42-13

(Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

Indy vs. Denver +7

This is a great game for fans of the NFL.  Fans in 7 cities outside of Indianapolis will be rooting for the Colts this weekend.  A Broncos loss this weekend could break the AFC playoff picture wide open.  At 8-4, McDaniels’ club holds the top wild card spot and is still in a position to win the division if the cards fall right.  However, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Miami, NYJ, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Houston are all in the hunt, and if the Broncos lose it will surely generate a photo finish for the last 2 or 3 spots in the playoffs.

All of this said, my money is on a wide open playoff race.  The Colts are just too lucky this year, and they’re at home.  Denver has been up and down, and I suppose right now they’re up, however I just don’t know that they’re good enough to go on the road and beat Peyton and the gang.  As always, the strategy will be to run the ball, control the clock, and score touchdowns.  If 7’s become 3’s early on, this game can be checked off as a Colt win by halftime.

I’ll take the Colts at home, 27-19

Minnesota vs. Cincinnati +6.5

This is a tough draw for the Criminengals.  The Vikings failed to perform against a mediocre Cardinals team last week, including an abysmal day for the Grape Ape and the Front Line Purple.  That’d be a great band name, I’ve decided.  Cincy does have a good defense, but they’ve struggled against all teams outside of the AFC North.

Although this might be the most competitive game of the weekend, and I for one am looking forward to seeing this game.  I don’t think the Bengals can keep up though.  With the exception of Chad Hachi Go, the passing game is anemic.  Carson Palmer just isn’t the player he was once expected to be, and that’s a reality.

Minnesota wins, but not by 6.5.  Vikings 28-23

Jacksonville vs. Miami +2.5

Unfortunately for both these teams, someone has to lose.  Both teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot and a loss this week will set them back against fellow hunters with easier pray this weekend such as the NYJ (vs. Tampa), Baltimore (vs. Detroit), Houston (vs. Seattle) and Tennessee (vs. St. Louis). At least one, if not more of those teams will be upset this weekend, so it’s not a certainty that they will all move in on the loser of this game.

Next week it doesn’t get any easier for these 2 teams either.  Jacksonville draws Indy while the Dolphins draw the Titans.  What’s that mean?  Both teams need a win this week.  Like I said though, only one can get it.  This Sunshine State matchup will be one of the best of the weekend.  Both teams have strong running games with passing games that are barely complimentary.

David Garrard has never been a big play QB, and Chad Henne is still learning his position in the NFL.  There should be a playoff atmosphere in Jacksonville (and hopefully the fans will fill the stadium), and this one will be decided by ball control and defense.  The Jags have been inconsistent this year, including losses to San Fran and Seattle.  Both those losses came on the road, and the Jags are 4-1 in their last 5.

The more I think about it, the less I know.  JAX 23-20

Dallas vs. San Diego +3 and NYG vs. Philadelphia +1

I had no choice but to combine these 2 games.  They were so intertwined in terms of their implications, I just couldn’t write a preview without it.  The impact of the Dallas/SD game is similar to that of the Indy/Denver matchup.  A loss by either of these teams can blow the lid off the playoff race.  Provided the Indy/Denver game goes as I expect, the impact of a San Diego loss will be less than a Dallas loss.  If Dallas goes down, there is potential for a 3 way tie in the NFC East.  Dallas has to win in order to keep first place.  Here’s how it breaks down:

Cowboys win, Eagles win:

Both teams are 9-4, and the Cowboys own the head to head tiebreaker for now.  The Eagles/Cowboys face off in week 17 though.  If the Eagles win that game, the Division tiebreaker will go to the Eagles.  For now though, with this outcome, the Cowboys remain in first place.

Cowboys win, Giants win:

Cowboys keep first place and are the only 9-4 team in the NFC East.  This is the ideal situation for the Cowboys.

Cowboys lose, Eagles win:

This puts the Eagles in first place as the only 9-4 team.  They would own the head to head tiebreaker against the Giants, and would only need to keep pace until week 17, then beat the Cowboys to win the division.

Cowboys lose, Giants win:

In this situation, The Giants would be the front runners.  All 3 teams would be 8-4, however the Giants swept the Cowboys and would have a 4-1 division record giving them the edge over the Eagles (3-2).

So now it’s laid out, all the scenarios that could change the picture in the NFC East.  So the question becomes, who will win?  In the first game, I’m taking San Diego.  They’re on a 7 game win streak and they’re just flat out a better team than the Cowboys.

SD 27 DAL 20

In game #2, I’m going to take the Eagles.  Andy Reid just renewed his contract and that adds some sense of stability to the team.  DeSean Jackson should play after missing a week with a concussion, and Michael Vick suddenly became a part of the offense last week, if only to rub it in the face of Atlanta for daring to turn their back on a man who shoots dogs for sport. HOW DARE THEY!?!?!  The Giants are still trying to figure out who they are, and are lucky to be 7-5 at this point in the season.

PHI 33 NYG 30

So there it is, I’m taking the road teams and the underdogs in those matchups.

So wow, there you have it.  Next week the AFC East playoff race should be heated up and I’ll try to focus there next week.

As for the rest of the league:

GB over Chicago +3

KC over Buffalo even

NE over Carolina +13.5 – okay, my quick thoughts here.  It’s pretty outrageous to give the Pats 13.5 points right now against any team.  The Panthers are down there starting QB and running back though, and this game could very well be in the snow.  We all know what happened to the Titans in the snow.

Tampa +3 over NYJ

Baltimore over Detroit +13

Houston over Seattle +6

St. Louis +13 over Tennessee – I’m not saying the Rams are going to win this game, however Young had a setback on his knee injury, Chris Johnson was a limited participant with a sore ankle, and DT Jason Jones could be done for the season with a torn rotator cuff.  Those are all big ifs, and it will take a 175 yard 3 TD game from CJ in order to beat St. Louis by 13.

Oakland +1 over Washington

Arizona over San Fran +3

(It’s Week 13 by the way!)

Hope everyone had a fantastic turkey day.  I was unable to watch any football on Thanksgiving, which is the first time I’ve failed to do so in my entire life.  Fortunately, it appears I didn’t miss very much good football.  The Packers, Cowboys, and Broncos rolled their opponents with relative ease.

There were a few picture changing games as well.  With Baltimore defeating Pittsburgh, the Steelers are all but out of the playoff picture.  The Bengals need a mere 3 games (any combination of wins by the Bengals or losses by the Steelers and Ravens) to clinch the AFC North.  The Criminengals not only won the division (I’m calling it now), but they did it by winning in the division.  6-0 against the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns, contributing to 6 of their 8 wins.  This means they’re 2-3 outside the division though, so those 3 wins might be harder to come by than it looks.  Even so, they hold the tiebreaker in the north.

Indy won again, remaining undefeated and clinching the AFC South.  This week they match up against a streaking Titans team (5 straight wins after an 0-6 start).  A few weeks ago, prior to their Monday night victory over the Texans, I said the Titans could win the rest of their games, noting that the Colts were the one deadbolt in an otherwise unlocked door to full recovery.

In the AFC West, San Diego marched on to their 6^th straight win, while the Broncos finally got back on track defeating the Giants on Thursday night.  Denver still has 3 matchups against the Chiefs and Raiders and could finish the season with a 5-1 division record.  Don’t count them out in the West as they are only 1 game back of the Chargers.

In the NFC, the Cowboys and Eagles continue to distance themselves from the NFC East pack, as the Giants continue to struggle and it appears Eli Manning may be done for the year.

The Vikings and Saints continue to make it clear who the top dogs to beat are in the NFL.  I’d be surprised to see any team other than one of these 2 head to the Super Bowl this year.  Yea they’re a combined 21-1, with the only loss coming by Minnesota at the hands of the Steelers in Pittsburgh early in the year.  However, it’s not the record so much as the way these teams have one.  They’ve won with guts and skill and have flat outclassed and outplayed their opponents.  Compare that to the Colts 11-0, and the close battles they’ve had all year where they’ve won in certain situations, despite being outplayed for 58 minutes.  I would take either the Saints or the Vikings over Indy in a neutral stadium.

So what does all this mean?  Not a heck of a lot yet.  There’s still a lot of football to be played, including this weekend!

El Mustachio's star Fantasy player - Ryan Fitzpatrick

NYJ vs. Buffalo +3 (Editor’s note: Sorry, slacker me got this posted AFTER the game but El’s pick is from well before the start of the game!)

Jobs, roles, and responsibilities have been shifted in Buffalo.  In 3 weeks, the Bills have replaced their head coach, starting QB, and starting running back.  I for one am starting Ryan Fitzpatrick this week in the 4SportBoston fantasy league.  That’s right.  And why am I doing that?  Well… I’ve just got no choice.  Too many injuries at QB this season, including my QB Matt Ryan’s have resulted in an absolutely decimated selection at the position.  So for the next 30 seconds I’m going to pump up Fitzpatrick and tell you why he and the Bills are going to beat the Jets tonight!

1. I hate the Jets.  Screw them, they’re terrible
2. Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, which as we all know is located in Cambridge, MA
3. He was born in Gilbert, AZ a neighboring town to the one I live in currently
4. Stupid Jets

In the end, these major factors play a decisive role in tonight’s battle for 3^rd place in the AFC East.  NYJ 24 BUF 27

Now that Thursday night is out of the way, I’m going to take a nap until Sunday morning when the Colts take on the Titans.

Colts vs. Tennessee +6.5

I wish I could sit here and honestly tell you I truly believe the Titans will win this game, but I can’t do that.  They could, I won’t rule it out, which is good for Jeff Fischer since I know he hangs on my every word, but it’s a near impossible matchup to go on the road against an undefeated team.  What the Titans have going in their favor is that they FEEL undefeated.  They haven’t lost since October 18^th in what seem now like a surreal game in the New England storm of snow and scores.  That means we’ve got 2 teams feeling pretty f’n good right now.  One thinks they can’t be beat, while the other refuses to get beat because they know how badly it hurts.  I’m taking the Titans and the points, because even if they don’t win, they’ll give the Colts a run, just like every other good team has done.

IND 20 TEN 17

Other than that, I’m pretty much bored by the matchups this week.  Because of that, I’m gonna jump right over to the 4 games this week without a spread.

Oakland vs. Pittsburgh

Really?  No spread on this one?  Sorry Oakland, Pittsburgh isn’t that bad, even if they can’t beat anyone that matters.  There is no way they give up this golden egg at home.

PIT 20 OAK 10

Houston vs. Jacksonville

So this game actually has some merit as a no spread game.  Houston is on a downward spiral and can’t seem to beat their division foes.  In fact, their only intra-division victory came in week 2 against the Titans, and we all know how they were playing at the time.  They will probably bounce back at some point, but after losing to Indy, Tennessee, then Indy again in consecutive weeks, the Texans won’t recover until next week at home against Seattle.

JAX 34 HOU 28

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Oh god I hope this game isn’t on television.  Anywhere.

SF 10 SEA 7

Arizona vs. Minnesota

On Sunday night these 2 teams go head to head, which means I don’t have to get stuck watching the Cardinals against, I don’t know… let’s say… the Rams… as the only game available at 2 in the afternoon.  So yes, I’m excited.  The Grape Ape is gonna run train on the redbirds at 109 mph.

MIN 41 ARI 19

And the Monday Night Mustachio Matchup!

Green Bay vs. Baltimore +3

Mere weeks after I claimed the Packers couldn’t win 2 in a row after the defeat of Dallas, they’ve now strung together 3 straight.  Now they’re at home against a Ravens team coming off a big win against Pittsburgh.  Let’s be real here though, the Steelers started their backup QB after Roethlisberger selfishly took his shares of the practice snaps all week.  Green Bay doesn’t have that problem, and will dispense with the Ravens.  Suddenly Green Bay’s defense is among the best in the league, although missing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for an extended period of time could be problematic.  Lambeau in December is what it comes down to though.  Take Green Bay on the frozen tundra, just like I’m going to do.

GB 27 BAL 21

On the season, Mustachio is 93-83, making him one of the worst prognosticators on the internet.