Red Sox Road Ahead: Week 11

Posted by Patrick Pho in Red Sox on June 13th, 2010 | one response

(Patrick previews the week ahead for the Red Sox each and every week. Start your week off right and read everything you need to know for the games ahead.)

Note: Stats are accurate prior to Sunday’s games. Game times are EST and pitching match-ups are subject to change.

Rapid Recap

Boston Red Sox
37-27
3rd in AL East (4 GB)

At bat…

It's a storybook beginning for Daniel Nava (Photo Michael Dwyer, AP)

After watching the USA/England soccer match I was delighted to see the Phillies/Red Sox game on Fox when I flipped the channel. I tuned in just in time to see J.D. Drew hit his home run and a kid named Daniel Nava hit a grand slam on his first major league pitch.

His story is something Disney movies are made of: washing uniforms as an equipment manager at Santa Clara University eventually landing on an independent league team after college.

As a player on the Chico Outlaws he earned Most Valuable Player honors in the Golden Baseball League. The Red Sox then signed him… for $1.

It was the best single dollar purchase the Sox spent. Nava worked his way up the farm system and finally reached the show when Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida both hit the D/L.

After that the rest is history. Nava is the 2nd Red Sox and 4th player in major league history to hit a grand slam in his first major league at-bat.

Of course we can’t expect him to hit grand slams every time he steps up to the plate- he struck out in his next at bat but then hit a double after that.

So what can we really expect from Nava during his stint in the majors? The scouting report from SoxProspects.com says, “Nava is a well-rounded player – he has a great bat with a little bit of pop, excellent plate discipline, average speed, and an average to above-average arm”.

His minor league stats confirm this, in 54 games for AAA Pawtuckett he has hit a .294 average with 8 homers and 13 doubles. He’s also stolen 3 bases but hasn’t stolen any prior to that since playing for Lancaster in 2008. In terms of plate discipline he strikeout rate in the minors has ranged between 19-21% but prior to being called up was boasting a 10% strikeout rate in AAA. The bright side he that he has consistently maintained a double digit walk rate in his minor league play.

Of course it’s too early to see how he’ll do in the majors but he’s certainly a story to talk about and definitely made a splash on a national stage.

On The Mound…

Another surprise this past weekend was Dice-K hitting the D/L… well it’s not a surprise to see him on the D/L- just that he hit the D/L 10 minutes before his scheduled start. The report says he felt a forearm strain while warming up- I’d also like to tack on being Dice-K on top of his current status as well. The move is retroactive to June 8th and he’ll be illegible to come back on the 23rd when the Sox play the Rockies.

Dice K will be joining Josh Beckett, who’s also not a stranger to the disabled list. Latest reports are that he’s able to play catch but it’ll still be some time before we see him in a rehab assignment.

Schedule and Opponents

Red Sox games are available over the radio on the WEEI Red Sox Radio Network and on NESN in the New England TV market (unless noted.)

Tuesday, June 15 vs D-backs 7:10 PM

Wednesday, June 16 vs D-backs 7:10 PM

Thursday, June 17 vs D-backs 7:10 PM

Friday, June 18 vs Dodgers 7:10 PM

Saturday, June 19 vs Dodgers 4:10 PM (On Fox)

Sunday, June 20 vs Dodgers 8:00 PM (On ESPN)

Arizona TV: FS-A

Los Angeles Dodgers TV: PRIME

Pitching Match-Ups

Tuesday, June 15

Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy, RHP (3-3, 3.17)

Last start: 6/9 vs. ATL: 7.0 IP/3 H/0 R/6 K/5 BB

After making occasional spot starts for the Yankees, Kennedy finds himself in Arizona this season and has shown respectable numbers. A 7.76 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9 are hovering around league average numbers. The 1.53 HR/9 rate is somewhat alarming but you should expect a jump like that when you play in a homer friendly park like Chase Field. This year he’s put on an notch on his fastball but at 91 MPH it’s nothing special.

Red Sox: Clay Buchholz, RHP (8-4, 2.52)

Last start: 6/9 @CLE: 7.0 IP/3 H/3 R/1 K/4 BB

A 5 game win streak came to an end last week but nothing to worry about overall but you have to point out his declining strike out numbers (4,2,1 last three starts.)

Wednesday, June 16

Diamondbacks: Dontrelle Willis, LHP (2-2, 4.39)

Last start: 6/10 vs. ATL: 4.o IP/3 H/2 R/2 K/6 BB

Hopefully Willis can recover from a finger injury to make his third start since being traded from Detroit to Arizona. Playing the in NL hasn’t done anything to help his play so far- he still has major control issues and who knows what else.

Red Sox: Jon Lester, LHP (7-2, 3.18)

Last start: 6/10 @CLE: 6.0 IP/9 H/6 R/8 K/1 BB

Again nothing to worry about here- especially when you can manage to strike out 8 batters over 6 innings. Last week Lester snapped a four game winning streak.

Thursday, June 17

Diamondbacks: Rodrigo Lopez, RHP (2-5, 4.45)

Last start: 6/11 vs. STL: 7.0 IP/6 H/5 R/4 K/0 BB

Lopez offers a fastball around 88 MPH, a 24% line drive rate, and a 90% contact rate. This is a rout in the making.

Red Sox: John Lackey, RHP (7-3, 4.54)

Last start: 6/11 vs. PHI: 7.0 IP/6 H/2 R/3 K/0 BB

Lackey is slowly becoming an innings eater that could give the Sox a reasonable chance to win the game on any given start. That’s all and good but did we expect a Bronson Arroyo when we signed him?

Friday, June 18

Dodgers: John Ely, RHP (3-3, 3.38)

Last start: 6/12 vs. LAA: 5.0 IP/6 H/4 R/2 K/3 BB

He's young, tall, and ready to show the Sox if he's the real deal. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

This rookie has been impressive to start off the season but has started to strike out less batters while walking more in his most recent starts. He’s also given up 3 home runs in his last two starts after given up none in his first six. I’ll rack it up to typical rookie performance. His stuff isn’t anything special: an 87 MPH fastball, 78 MPH change, with a slider and curve.

Red Sox: TBD

We’ll have to see who the Sox will fill in for Dice-K’s spot, Wakefield could be moved up a spot or perhaps they’ll go to my favorite name in the bullpen: Boof Bonser. Of course if they do everybody will be saying, “Boof” in reaction to his performance.

Saturday, June 19

Dodgers: Carlos Monasterios, RHP (3-0, 2.27)

Last start: 6/7 vs. STL: 6.0 IP/4 H/3 R/0 K/3 BB

Another rookie spot starter in the Dodgers rotation, his 3 wins and sub 3 ERA can be attributed to a .215 BABIP and ridiculous 87% strand rate. You can’t expect great starts from a guy who can only strike out 3.8 batters per 9 innings. With his pitch to contact play you can expect those numbers to regress to the mean. Which means he’ll be due for a blowup if he continues to start.

Red Sox: Tim Wakefield, RHP (2-4, 5.48)

Last start: 6/8 @CLE: 7.0 IP/4 H/1 R/6 K/0 BB

As of this writing Wake just finished a horrible outing against Philly at home, looking closer at his splits this season and it’s clear he’s no comfortable pitching at home… or is he unlucky?

Home: 7.29 ERA/1.90 K/BB/.330 BABIP/53.9 Strand%

Away: 3.62 ERA/4.00 K/BB/.250 BABIP/75.2 Strand%

Looking at his career numbers he tends to strike more batters out away than at home and at Fenway more runners he puts on tend to score- so perhaps it’s Fenway itself and not just luck that’s creating these splits.

Sunday, June 20

Dodgers: Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (5-4, 3.30)

Last start: 6/8 vs. STL: 7.0 IP/4 H/0 R/6 K/1 BB

I love drafting Kuroda in my fantasy teams- he doesn’t have a lot of name recognition but he’s a dependable mid-rotation arm with average stuff that will rack up quality start after quality start. So far in his 12 games played he’s done so in 8 of them. Compare that to 13 out of 20 in 2009 and he’s an cheap arm I’d love to get in fantasy.

Of course what does that mean for real-life baseball? The Sox better be ready to win with 3 or less runs.

Red Sox: Clay Buchholz, RHP (8-4, 2.52)

Opponents In-Depth

Arizona Diamondbacks
25-38
5th in NL West (12.5 GB)

Probable Line-Up

Kelly Johnson, 2B
Conor Jackson, LF
Stephen Drew, SS
Mark Reynolds, 3B
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Chris B. Young, CF
Justin Upton, RF
Chris Snyder, C
Gerardo Parra, DH

Last Week/Upcoming

Won two out of four against Atlanta, currently winning one out of three against St. Louis.

Injuries

Brandon Webb, SP (Shoulder) 60-day DL. Out until at least late July

Leo Rosales, RP (Foot) 60-day DL. Out until at least late July

Tony Abreu, SS (Wrist) 15-day DL. On Triple-A rehab assignment. Out until at least late June

Kris Benson, SP (Shoulder) 15-day DL. On Triple-A rehab assignment

Dontrelle Willis, SP (Finger) Probable for June 16 start vs. Boston

Who’s Hot

Kelly Johnson: .358 BA/1 HR/6 2B last two weeks

Who’s Not

Mark Reynolds: .189 BA/15 K last two weeks

Los Angeles Dodgers
36-26
2nd in NL East (1 GB)

Probable Line-Up

Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Kemp, CF
Andre Ethier, RF
Manny Ramirez, LF
James Loney, 1B
Casey Blake, 3B
Blake DeWitt, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Garret Anderson, DH

Last Week/Upcoming

Won three out of three against St. Louis, currently losing two out of three against Los Angeles Angels. Will play three in Cincinnati before traveling to Boston.

Injuries

Charlie Haeger, SP (Toe) 15-day DL. Out until at least early July

Vicente Padilla, SP (Forearm) 15-day DL. Expected to make Triple-A rehab start June 13. Might return for June 19 start vs. Boston

Cory Wade, RP (Shoulder) 60-day DL. Out until at least late July

Brad Ausmus, C (Back) 60-day DL. Might be out for the season

Who’s Hot

Jamey Carroll: .379 BA last two weeks

Who’s Not

Casey Blake: .143 BA last two weeks