Red Sox Road Ahead: Week 6

Posted by Patrick Pho in Red Sox on May 9th, 2010 | one response

(Patrick previews the week ahead for the Red Sox each and every week. Start your week off right and read everything you need to know for the games ahead.)

Note: Stats are accurate prior to Sunday’s games. Game times are EST and pitching match-ups are subject to change.

Rapid Recap

Boston Red Sox
15-16
4th in AL East (7.5 GB)

Did I forget that the Sox own the Angels? Well I knew that was the trend in the post-season, but after last year’s sweep and the current performance of the club, I wasn’t going to use past history to predict future results.

That being said I am pleasantly surprised to see the Sox sweep the Angels… mostly because the Yankees have taken care of the Sox so far this weekend. It’ll be good to see that we’ll come out at least 4-3 for the week.

At bat…

Mike Lowell sees increased playing time at the cost of Big Papi (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Mike Lowell and David Ortiz have officially become a platoon at DH, a hard choice for Francona, given Big Papi’s legacy in Boston. In the end, however, I agree with Terry’s decision. Looking at the numbers, Ortiz has better power against righties with a .246 ISO rating compared to a .188 against lefties. His batted ball numbers show that he hits he ball better against righties as well. However the platoon won’t help an overall increase strikeout rate and a decreasing contact rate. So the beginning of the end is here for Big Papi.

Lowell on the other hand is a better overall hitter compared to Ortiz. He gets on base more and strikes out less. While his power is slowly decreasing, he is still able to make good contact with the ball.

On The Mound…

I always find it enjoyable to see position players pitch in mop-up/long inning games. While it was enjoyable to hear that Jonathan Van Every took the mound this weekend, it was sad to hear it was during a Yankees blowout.

While the past week saw comeback performances from Jon Lester and John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka still continue to struggle. More about the pitchers in the match-ups below.

Schedule and Opponents

Red Sox games are available over the radio on the WEEI Red Sox Radio Network and on NESN in the New England TV market (unless noted.)

Monday, May 10 vs Blue Jays 7:10 PM

Tuesday, May 11 vs Blue Jays at 7:10 PM

Wednesday, May 12 vs Blue Jays at 1:35 PM

Friday, May 14 @ Tigers at 7:05 PM

Saturday, May 15 @ Tigers at 7:05 PM

Sunday, May 16 @ Tigers at 1:05 PM

Toronto TV: SNET

Detroit TV: FS-D HD

Pitching Match-Ups

Monday, May 10

Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow, RHP (2-2, 5.40)

The reliever-turned-starter from Seattle is still a work in progress in Toronto. He has a four pitch repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball and has an impressive 11.34 K/9; however a 5.40 BB/9 and 1.08 HR/9 are areas that he needs to improve on. His outing last week against Cleveland is what you typically see from Morrow: 3 ER, 9K, 4BB.

Red Sox: John Lackey, RHP (3-1, 3.89)

Against his former team Lackey went seven innings and only allowed a single run. While he’s currently one of Boston’s better starters Lackey hasn’t shown the dominance he had with the Angels and is allowing more walks and more batters to make contact with the ball.

Tuesday, May 11

Blue Jays: Dana Eveland, LHP (3-1, 3.82)

Eveland is coming off a seven-inning out of shutout ball against Chicago, but the four walks and only three strike-outs says that Eveland is still not a dominating pitcher and relies on ground balls to eat up his innings.

Red Sox: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP (1-1, 9.90)

Dice-BB finally got his first win, but it was messy with five runs, five hits, and three walks. It should be a fun match-up that could easily be a hit parade.

Wednesday, May 12

Blue Jays: Shaun Marcum, RHP (1-1, 3.19)

Marcum continues to be one of the best arms in the Blue Jays rotation. In his last encounter with the Sox, he pitched seven innings of one-run ball and walked away with a quality start. The Blue Jays should be thankful to have such a consistent arm, but he’s still not an ace.

Red Sox: Josh Beckett, RHP (1-1, 7.46)

Will things come into focus for Beckett this week? (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)

Talking about aces- neither is Beckett. From all accounts his outing against the Yankees had both the best and the worst of his stuff. Eight strike-outs is great but not when it comes at the cost of nine earned runs. If anything is promising, his velocity looked great. Given his traditionally slow starts, we can only hope he shakes it off real soon.

Friday, May 14

Tigers: Max Scherzer, RHP (1-2, 6.47)

This young righty showed an electric strike-out rate in Arizona, but hasn’t been able to translate it over in the AL where he’s looking more hittable than ever. Scherzer’s velocity has been in decline, which is bad sign for the 25-year old, and a ten-run outing against Minnesota last week doesn’t bode well.

Red Sox: Clay Buchholz, RHP (3-3, 3.82)

Clay looked messy in his two-start week, giving up four runs in a win against the Angels and giving up five against the Yankees in a loss. Numbers over his last three starts don’t look good: declining strike-outs, increasing walks, increasing hits & runs.

Saturday, May 15

Tigers: Dontrelle Willis, LHP (1-1, 3.99)

Same high kick- but not the same pitcher. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

The 2003 Rookie of the Year hasn’t been the same since his career year in 2005 with the Marlins. Now, the lefty with a trademark delivery is with the Tigers and for the first time in years looks at least somewhat effective. His peripheral numbers are returning to his days back in Florida. However, I’m not saying he’s back to NL win-leading performance. He’s lost a tick on his velocity and has become more hittable over the years. His 43-percent ground-ball rate is useful but isn’t him in his prime.

Red Sox: Jon Lester, LHP (2-2, 3.93)

Last week Lester threw eight innings in a one-run, five strike out game verses the Angels. He’s also kept his walks under control and looks primed to start a hot streak against the Tigers.

Sunday, May 9

Tigers: Rick Porcello, RHP (2-3, 7.50)

In his rookie season last year Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. Today he’s 2-3 with a 7.50 ERA. Slow start? I’d say so. Especially with an increase in strike-out rate and a decrease in home-run rate. The ground ball pitcher doesn’t have a dominating repertoire which makes him vulnerable to getting blown out. Last week however, his four walks didn’t do him any favors in a loss against Minnesota.

Red Sox: John Lackey, RHP (3-1, 3.89)

Opponents In-Depth

Toronto Blue Jays
18-14
3rd in AL East (5 GB)

Probable Line-Up

Fred Lewis, LF
Aaron Hill, 2B
Adam Lind, DH
Vernon Wells, CF
Lyle Overbay, 1B
Adrian Gonzalez, SS
Jose Bautista, 3B
John Buck, C
Travis Snider, RF

The Birds continue their road trip into Boston after stops in Cleveland and Chicago and are looking hot after sweeping the Tribe and will at least split the series against the White Sox.

Injuries

Third basemen Edwin Encarnacion (shoulder) is the latest in a long list of players to sit on the DL- however he is the first position player, with an entire rotation and bullpen also on the disabled list.

Who’s Hot

Travis Snider is hitting .341 the past two weeks with two HRs.

Who’s Not

Adam Lind broke out last year with 35 HRs and a .305 average. So far he’s been off to a slow start with a .151 average the past two weeks.

The Bullpen

Kevin Gregg continues to prove his worth as the closer with three saves the past two weeks and looks to be growing his leash with the team.

Detroit Tigers
17-13
2nd in AL Central (2.5 GB)

Probable Line-Up

Austin Jackson, CF
Johnny Damon, LF
Magglio Ordonez, RF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Brennan Boesch, DH
Brandon Inge, 3B
Gerald Laird/Alex Avila, C
Scott Sizemore, 2B
Ramon Santiago/Adam Everett, SS

The Tigers were swept by the division rival Minnesota Twins earlier last week, after visiting the Indians the team heads back for a week at home against New York before Boston comes into town.

Injuries

Carlos Guillen is nursing a hamstring injury on the DL and is expected out until mid-May.

Who’s Hot

Austin Jackson is ripping it up hitting a gaudy .462 with a HR and three SB.

Who’s Not

Talking about old, declining hitters; Magglio Ordonez is typically a .300 hitter but is in a.231 slump the past 14 days.

The Bullpen

The Tigers finally have a solid closer in Jose Valverde right? Well despite eight saves he has a career low strike-out rate and is leaving 93-percent of base-runners stranded. That is a rate that can’t possibly be sustained all season. Combined with a ridiculously low .137 BABIP- I wonder when the bubble will burst?

My Outlook

The Toronto series will be key for the Sox to gain a foothold in the AL East. Seeing how they swept the Blue Jays the first time around makes me confident with a series win this week as well. I say the Sox go 3-3 this week.

How do you think the Sox are going to fare this week? Leave them in the comments or let Patrick know on Twitter: @DMBosstone

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