Series Preview: Bruins vs Sabres
A season which began with many (too many?) around Boston expecting Lord Stanley to come walking through the door in an easy manner did not go as planned for the Boston Bruins. Injuries, a serious lack of finishing touch on scoring plays and a diminished offensive output from the defensemen resulted in far too many ups and downs throughout the 2009-10 season. Still, there are only 16 teams with a chance to raise the Stanley Cup and despite a brutal beginning to the season and a few stretches of putrid play in February and March, the Bruins found a way to earn a chance to compete for the Cup.
A 5-1-1 finish to the regular season pushed the Bruins past Philadelphia and Montreal into the sixth seed, bypassing an opening-round date with Washington and New Jersey. Instead, the Bruins will take on old Adams Division rival Buffalo in a series that is in no way intimidating to the Bruins.
The B’s went 4-2 against the Sabres in the regular season, a number that is slightly misleading because two of those wins came when All-World goalie Ryan Miller was on the bench. Still, for a team that seemed to struggle so mightily at times throughout the season, to draw a team you have comfort with is a bonus. Even the two losses the Bruins had to Buffalo were nothing to be ashamed of. The first came at the end of January, a 2-1 loss in Buffalo that was part of the Bruins’ nine-game losing streak. At the end of March, Tim Thomas drew the start and did not come through, allowing three goals on 14 shots. He was yanked, and the Bruins mounted a comeback attempt but fell 3-2. Tuukka Rask made 19 saves in half a game to keep the B’s in it.
These two teams match up similarly in many areas, leading many to believe this could be a very long series. Let’s take a look at which team has the edge in the key areas:
Goaltending: Let’s start in the area which pretty much decides every playoff series. It is no secret that having strong goaltending can carry an otherwise average team through a playoff series. And this series features the most star power between the pipes.
Start with Miller. One of the NHL’s best goalies for some time now, his standout performance at the Olympics made him a star throughout the league. He set career highs in wins (41), GAA (2.22) and save% (.929) while carrying the Sabres to the Northeast Division championship. He is the front runner to supplant Thomas as the Vezina Trophy winner as the league’s best goalie and is capable of backstopping the Sabres all the way to the Cup. The crazy thing is, Miller doesn’t have the best stats of the two goalies expected to be featured in the series.
Tuukka Rask led the NHL in GAA (1.97) and save % (.931) while taking the starting job from Thomas. Rask did not play as many games as Miller, needing a while to convince Bruins coach Claude Julien that he was the man to go with, but he is among the best in the NHL this season. It is clear that the Bruins play a better, more relaxed defensive game when Rask is in goal, allowing the team to focus on its system to execute the transition game.
The difference between Miller and Rask may come down to experience. Miller is in his fifth full season in the NHL (seventh overall) and has played in 34 playoff games – winning 20. He also has that Olympic experience from February, shining on the world’s grandest stage. Rask, on the other hand, will be making his first NHL playoff start tonight and will need to show his cool demeanor in the regular season can transfer over. Hard to bet against it, but you need to see it first.
EDGE – Buffalo… slightly
You need to bank on experience first. Don’t be surprised if Rask does steal the series, though.
Defense: This is another area where the teams are very evenly matched. The Bruins had the second best defense (200 goals against) in the NHL while the Sabres were fourth (207). While those numbers can be attributed to their stellar goalies, the guys in front of the ‘tenders had a say in this as well. Both sides bring a giant defender to the series.
Myers
The B’s have their captain, Zdeno Chara, while Buffalo counters with rookie Tyler Myers. Chara is 6’9″ while Myers is 6’8″. It is another case of the veteran vs. the rookie to see who can control the series. Chara is battling a broken finger and broken nose, but he has been through these wars before. You have to expect him to have his troops ready.
Myers will be in his first Stanley Cup Playoffs, a whole different animal than the regular season. Will his body hold up to adding more games to the 82 he played already?
Myers can be an offensive presence, as the Bruins have seen throughout the season with his 2G-3A-5P line in games against the B’s. Interestingly enough, Chara is the Bruins’ leading scorer against Buffalo with one goal and seven points.
The Sabres have a veteran crew on defense to back up Myers, with Craig Rivet, Henrik Tallinder and ex-Bruin Steve Montador adding experience. They do not, however, add offense.
Chara
The B’s have been ravaged on defense by injuries. Dennis Seidenberg and Mark Stuart will miss the series, leaving youngsters Matt Hunwick and Adam McQuaid to fill in. The B’s defense is perhaps the biggest question mark entering this series. If Dennis Wideman and Hunwick can at the least refrain from mistimed giveaways and maybe add some scoring, the B’s will have a decided edge. Andrew Ferrence will be trying to work himself into game shape and cannot be counted on for serious minutes off the bat. McQuaid and Johnny Boychuk are rookies new to the Cup Playoffs.
It is hard to predict what will happen either way. Still, just as I did with Miller over Rask, I will do so in terms of defense.
EDGE – Boston
The presence of Chara, who will be looking at the playoffs as a way to avenge a somewhat lost season, gives the nod to the B’s. Everyone should just follow his lead.
Offense: The Bruins are at somewhat of a disadvantage here, entering the playoffs as the second-worst offense in the NHL. They scored just 206 goals this season, going through far too many stretches where one goal was all they could muster.
At the same time, it isn’t like Buffalo is knocking on the 1980’s Oilers’ doors for offensive output. The Sabres have scored 235 over the course of the season, relying on Miller to make low-scoring games stand up.
Both sides are dealing with injuries up front, with the difference being how long each squad has had to reconfigure itself. The B’s are missing their best offensive threat, Marc Savard, but have been without him since early March. That has allowed the Bruins to reset their lines and allow people to get used to each other.
The Sabres, on the other hand, will be without Drew Stafford, Tim Connolly and Thomas Vanek for parts of, if not all of, the series. That is a combined 69 goals out with concussion, foot or upper-body injuries. Vanek may be the closest to coming back, but without question the Sabres are hoping find some magic from guys previously not counted on.
Derek Roy is a player to watch on Buffalo as he led the team with 69 points (26 goals). He is quick and has the breakaway speed to stretch defenses. Jochen Hecht and Jason Pominville also are players to keep an eye on, as they seem to find ways to win games.
Wheeler, Krejci, Satan (Photo courtesy: REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
The Bruins are nowhere close to the explosive team they were in 2008-09, losing a lot of goals to trade and injury. However, David Krejci appears to be recreating the puck magic he had throughout last year, finding chemistry with Miroslav Satan late in the season. Mark Recchi has been his usual self all season, deflecting shots and causing trouble in front of the net. Last year, Blake Wheeler was a no-show in the playoffs as he hit the proverbial wall. He must be a factor in this series for the Bruins to advance. Same goes for Milan Lucic. His ability to work into the slot and fire away should be on full display as Recchi and Bergeron create space for him. Lucic’s skills were made for the playoffs.
EDGE – Boston
I know giving the Bruins an edge in offense is kind of a crazy idea, but I have a feeling that they are in a better place at the moment than Buffalo. The B’s have had the time to deal with the injuries and know what they have up front. That will pay off early in the series.
In the end, this playoff series should boil down to what all playoff series do – momentum. The Bruins are actually one of the hotter teams in the East at the moment, with a 6-3-1 record to end the season. Buffalo went 5-5 over its final 10 games. There is no clear advantage in any category for either side. Even special teams is about a wash with the Sabres having a slight edge in power play (17.6% to Boston’s 16.6%) and the two being practically even in killing penalties (86.6 for Buffalo to 86.4 for Boston). Whichever team can take advantage of special teams more will do itself a ton of favors in terms of winning the series.
As for a prediction, I see no reason why the Bruins cannot win this series. It will not be easy and if “Olympics Ryan Miller” shows up all bets are off. But, the Bruins have been playing what amounts to playoff hockey for the last month or so and have done well. They are primed and ready to show they are still a commendable hockey squad. Many pundits are saying this series goes seven games, but I say the Bruins win in six. The B’s will split out in Buffalo before winning both in the Garden to take a commanding 3-1 lead, finally clinching on home ice.
Players to Watch: for the Bruins, expect Johnny Boychuk to score a big goal at some point. Lucic will use this series as a way to make amends for missing so much time to injury and Bergeron plays shutdown defense on Roy’s line. For the Sabres, I can’t get past the fact that Mike Grier will score a big goal. He has a knack for that type of thing. Jason Pominville always seems to be a thorn in the side of the Bruins as well.
Keep up with Chas on a day-to-day basis by following him on Twitter @boardsandblades
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