Rolling the Dice
Much was made of the six-deep rotation coming into this season, much as it was in 2008. Who would be the odd man out? Wakefield had made his intentions clear. He would not go to the bullpen. He was, after all, an All-Star last year; so why should he? Clay Buchholz was the bright young future of the Sox rotation and did well especially towards the end of the season. Dice-K had not only finished ’09 strong and had won 18 games the year before, but was already a $100 million man; far too large an investment not to be in the rotation.
But luckily, much as it had the year before, the Red Sox did not need to address the issue right of the bat. When Matsuzaka’s back was feeling tight, the team used it as an excuse to push him back for an extended Spring Training followed by three starts for Pawtucket before he would come up and join the big club. Following the debacle in which he hid a hip injury from the team, can you blame them for taking it slowly? Perhaps by the time he was ready, somebody else would be injured.
This past Saturday, Daisuke Matsuzaka made the first of his three minor league starts. Over five innings, he quickly reminded the Rochester Red Wings of how big the jump to the Majors really is. Dice-K gave up only two hits and one walk and struck out three. The only hint of trouble came in the fifth inning when he gave up a hit and then loaded the bases by hitting two batters. But, true to form, he got out of the jam cleanly by inducing a pop up to end the inning.
Following the start, he told the press that he was ready to go, and even even seemed a bit anxious at being held back. When told that John Farrell wanted him to be able to throw 95 pitches in a start before returning to the club, Dice-K replied “If it’s just about throwing 95 pitches, I could do it.” He looked good, afterall, hitting 93 mph on the radar gun. Over the five innings, he threw only 73 pitches, not even reaching the 85 pitch limit that was put on him. He did, however, express a need to get a better feel for his slider an changeup, saying “I think I really need those two pitches for me to put together a better ballgame.”
Terry Francona, always a player’s manager, when asked when Matsuzaka would return to Boston replied “I don’t know that there’s a plan that’s etched in stone. I think we’re more pleased with how he pitched today. That’s the whole idea.” Translation: I don’t want to give you an exact answer on this, because although he looks good, we still have a few balls to juggle considering who he will replace in the rotation.
NESN conducted a poll yesterday in which they asked Red Sox fans which pitcher should be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen. Eleven percent said that Wakefield should go, 18 percent said they’d like to see Buchholz in the ‘pen, and a whopping 71 percent said that Matsuzaka should be left out of the rotation. Which leaves me to ask the question: are you all insane?
I understand that last year was not a good year for Dice-K. A record of 4-6 and a 5.76 ERA is not exactly what we are looking for out of our starters. But you have to remember, before coming back from the disabled list, his record was 1-5 and his ERA was 8.23 ERA. In the four game span following his return, he racked up 3 wins, one loss, had an ERA of 2.22, and struck out 20 in 24.2 innings. That is more what I’m talkin’ about.
In Matsuzaka’s last full season, back in 2008, he was in many ways the ace of the staff. He compiled a stellar record of 18 wins and three losses. He put up an ERA of 2.90. He held opposing batters to a league low average of .211. He was fourth in voting for the Cy Young award. Now, I understand he only pitched 167.2 innings. I get that his WHIP was a mediocre 1.324. I also realize that many baseball statisticians will tell you that Wins are one of the most useless statistics in baseball.
But on the other hand, pitchers will say that Wins are really the only statistic that matters. Because in the end, if the team is winning games behind you, you are doing your job. If they aren’t, then you aren’t either. He wasn’t pretty to watch, by any stretch of the imagination, but Matsuzaka got the job done. He may have loaded the bases every inning, it seemed like, but he also always got out of it unscathed.
Fans seem to forget that although he is frustrating at times, there is a reason that the Red Sox paid $50 million just to be able to talk to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Although he hasn’t lived up to the hype surrounding his arrival in the United States, that hype wasn’t why the Sox invested as much as they did. They saw a pitcher who had the potential to be one of the best in baseball. In the World Baseball Classic in ’06 and again last year, they saw a pitcher who made the best hitters in the world flail away blindly at his offerings, only to walk back to the dugout with only a puzzled look to show for their efforts.
In each of his three seasons so far in the Major Leagues, Dice-K has hinted at being that pitcher, showing us glimpses of his ability and immense potential. In ’07 he had 15 Wins and 201 strikeouts over 204.1 innings. His only weakness was his ERA was an unimpressive 4.40 and he had 12 losses. That offseason, he said he would address those. In 2008 it was clear he did, cutting his ERA down to 2.90 and cutting the losses to three. Following that season, he proclaimed that the last thing he needed to address was going deeper in games and giving fewer walks, as he only pitched 167.2 innings and gave up 94 walks. Last year was derailed by injury. This year, Daisuke Matsuzaka has something to prove. He’s been given the green light by the front office to train how he wishes. The relationship between the two of them is better than ever. This year will be the year Matsuzaka puts it all together. Barring another injury, I expect a 3.50 ERA with 17 wins and 195 strikeouts while pitching 180 innings.
If there is no room for him in the rotation, room needs to be made. Maybe Wakefield needs to be put in the ‘pen, afterall, a 65 mph knuckleball coming on in relief of Becketts 95 mph heater would be almost unfair to other hitters. Perhaps Theo needs to consider trading Clay Buchholz for a bat, especially if the season continues to play out as it has. The point is that Dice-K needs to be in the rotation. The team is the best with him pitching every fifth day.
The Red Sox need to be able to roll the dice.
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