Red Sox Road Ahead: Week 2
(Patrick will be previewing the week ahead for the Red Sox each and every week- start your week off right and read everything you need to know for the games ahead.)
Note: stats are accurate as of 4/11/10 and game times are EST
Rapid Recap
Boston Red Sox
3-3
T-3rd in AL East (2 GB)
The Red Sox opened the season in dramatic fashion: a home series against the Yankees. After coming back from behind to start the season with a win, the Sox dropped the next two thanks to an ineffective bullpen.
Things fared better in Kansas City where the Sox took two games out of three, including an 8-3 win against Royals ace Zack Greinke.
Schedule and Opponents
Red Sox games available over the radio on the WEEI Red Sox Radio Network.
Can Lester rebound this week against the Twins? (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Monday April 12th at 4:10 PM: at MIN
(BOS TV: NESN, MIN TV: FS-N, NAT TV: ESPN )
Wednesday April 14th at 1:10 PM: at MIN
(BOS TV: NESN, MIN TV: FS-N, NAT TV: MLBN)
Thursday April 15th at 1:10 PM: at MIN
(BOS TV: NESN, MIN TV: FS-N)
Friday April 16th at 7:10 PM: vs. TB
(BOS TV: NESN, TB TV: Sun Sports)
Saturday April 17th at 7:10 PM: vs. TB
(BOS TV: NESN, TB TV: Sun Sports)
Sunday April 18th at 1:35 PM: vs. TB
(BOS TV: NESN, TB TV: Sun Sports, NAT TV: TBS)
Pitching Match-Ups
Monday April 12th
Red Sox: Jon Lester (LHP 0-0, 7.20 ERA)
The early Cy Young candidate got roughed up against the Yankees in his first start of the season. He gave up four runs over five innings and walked three. While his past encounters with the Twins haven’t gone well, (career vs. Twins: 4 G, 0-1, 5.66 ERA,) Lester enters the game looking for his first win of the season.
Twins: Carl Pavano (RHP 1-0, 1.29)
The Connecticut native has struggled the last few years to stay healthy enough to play, he only pitched a total 76 innings during the years of 2006-2008. In 2009 he stayed healthy enough to almost reach 200 innings earning a 14-12 record and 5.10 ERA. While it seems that his breakthrough 2004 season with the Marlins is a distant memory, he started this season with a seven inning, one run performance against the Angels. His skills are still solid sporting great control and command; however he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher and brand new Target field may work against him as well as a career 7.07 ERA against the Sox.
Wednesday April 14th
Red Sox: John Lackey (RHP 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Lackey did everything we could of hoped for in his first start for the Sox. Six innings of shutout ball didn’t ultimately result in a win for Lackey but so far everything is looking good for the new Sox starter.
Twins: Kevin Slowey (RHP 1-0, 1.69 ERA)
Things are always a gamble for the extreme fly-ball pitcher. His approach results in either fly ball outs or home runs. That could spell doom if Target Field lives up to it’s early projections of benefiting hitters. Otherwise expect solid skills from the righty who only allowed one run against his first start against Anaheim.
Thursday April 15th
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield (RHP 0-0, 2.57 ERA)
It’s hard to believe how effective this knuckleballer is at 43. His seven inning, two run, six strikeout performance against the Royals proves that he’s still a solid back-end rotation guy.
Twins: Fransisco Liriano (LHP 0-0, 4.50 ERA)
Which Liriano will we see on Thursday? (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)
The question everybody has been asking for the past year or two is can he recover from his Tommy John Surgery to his 2006 breakout year? The hope is waning three years later as things have only gotten worse. His three run, three strike out no-decision against the White Sox gives us some hope- but not much. The scouting report on him says he’s a power pitcher that can dominate the strike zone but is still struggling with control- his five walks in that Chicago start doesn’t bode well.
Friday April 16th
Red Sox: Josh Beckett (RHP 1-0, 6.17 ERA)
Beckett fared much better in his second start of the season, going for seven innings and only allowing three runs against Kansas City. Look for him to improve against the Rays- he owns a 7-4 career record against them including a 1.16 WHIP.
Rays: Wade Davis (RHP 0-1, 6.00 ERA)
The young power pitcher is still developing and gave up 4 runs against The Yankees. Last year he faced the Sox once where was tagged for eight runs and was knocked out after 2.2 innings. He’ll continue to learn his lessons the hard way against the Sox.
Saturday April 17th
Red Sox : Clay Buchholz (RHP 1-0, 3.60 ERA)
Last year the story was will he stay or go as a possible trading chip, now he’s firmly in place inside the Sox rotation as Daisuke Matsuzaka rehabs on the DL. Against the Royals he threw five innings or two run ball and is 2-1 in four career starts against Tampa Bay with a 1.10 WHIP. Things are looking up for the inconsistent starter.
Rays: James Shields (RHP 0-0 3.97 ERA)
He’s only 28 but Shields is already the workhorse ace of the Rays rotation. His last start against the Yankees resulted in a 5 inning no-decision with two runs and five strikeouts. He sports an impressive skill set and could pose a challenge to the Sox but a career 3-7 and 5.32 ERA against the Sox says otherwise.
Sunday April 18th
Red Sox: Jon Lester (LHP 0-0, 7.20 ERA)
Rays: Matt Garza (RHP 1-0, 1.13 ERA)
An eight inning, nine strikeout, one run game against Baltimore says everything you need to know about the Garza. Like the rest of the Rays rotation he has excellent control, command, and dominance. He is also has a career record of 5-2 against the Sox with a 3.23 ERA. I wouldn’t be very happy going up against Garza.
Opponents In-Depth
Minnesota Twins
5-2
2nd in AL Central (.5 GB)
The Sox will face off against two AL MVPs this week. (Photo by Jacob de Golish/Getty Images)
Probable Lineup
Denard Span, CF
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Jason Kubel/Jim Thome, DH
Delmon Young, LF
J.J. Hardy, SS
Nick Punto, 3B
Notable Injuries
Joe Nathan, RP (Elbow- Out for season)
At-Bat
The Twins line-up is anchored by two AL MVPs in Mauer and Morneau- throw in Michael Cuddyer who hit over 30 HRs last year and you have solid power in the heart of the line-up. Lead-off man Denard Span has the wheels to get himself into scoring position but is currently getting off to a slow start with a .219 OBP. Orlando Hudson is getting up there in age but compared to who they were putting out there at 2B before, he’s a big upgrade. Talking about Nick Punto, he’s still in the line-up covering third. Former first overall pick Delmon Young is developing into a good- but not great OF, definitely not a break-out you’d expect out of a #1 pick. Jason Kubel has shown good power and an average that won’t kill ya but is currently platooning with Jim Thome.
On the Mound
Between Pavano, Slowey, and Scott Baker; the Twins throws out a starting rotation that is more pitch-to-contact than power. As I said before, this sort of strategy can work in the spacious Metrodome- but how will it work out in the new Target Field? The big story in the Twins bullpen is Joe Nathan’s season-ending elbow surgery. With their all-star closer out for 2010, Jon Rauch has closing duties and is 4-4 in save opportunities. Luckily for the Twins Rauch has closing experience and should be a suitable replacement. The rest of the bullpen has looked solid so far to start off the season.
In the Field
Minnesota is currently perfect in the field with no errors, and was 3rd in MLB in 2009. Switching O-Dog at 2B in place of Punto can only improve things for 2010.
Park Factors
There’s been a lot said about Target Field vs. the Metrodome, that smaller dimensions may equate to more Home Runs. I ran across an interesting article that shows how insignificant the differences in dimensions are but does make a good point: what people should really pay attention to is how weather will not play more of a factor into games. Temperatures should range in the mid-70′s for the Sox series.
Tampa Bay Rays
3-3
T-3rd in AL East (2 GB)
The Sox will have to keep a close eye on speedster Carl Crawford (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
Probable Lineup
Jason Bartlett, SS
Carl Crawford, LF
Ben Zobrist, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Carlos Pena, 1B
B.J. Upton, CF
Pat Burrell, DH
Dioner Navarro, C
Sean Rodriguez, 2B
Notable Injuries
Jeff Niemann, SP (Shoulder- Probable for next start)
J.P. Howell, RP (Shoulder- 15 Day DL)
Matt Joyce, LF (Elbow- 15 Day DL)
At-Bat
The 2008 AL Champions offer up a strong line-up anchored by breakout star Ben Zobrist and MVP candidate Evan Longoria. Carlos Pena will hit around 30 HRs at the cost of a low batting average. Throw in speedsters Bartlett and Crawford at the top of the order and you are looking at a team that was top 10 in runs, home runs, and led the league in stolen bases. The question marks for this team is how batters 6-9 will fare. B.J. Upton is coming off a disappointing season despite swiping 42 bags. Pat Burrell wasn’t the slugger he was in Philadelphia and has been relegated to platoon duty at DH.
On the Mound
The Rays has one of the deepest rotations in terms of young talent. However with the raw skills of young pitchers comes the inconsistency, the starting pitching needs to be on-point or they leave the door open for the Sox to slug it out. Rafael Soriano was the off-season acquisition that was supposed to be the answer at closer. So far he has a save under his belt but looked shaky in his two appearances so far.
In the Field
The Rays were are proof of the pitching and defense trend that everyone (including the Sox) are jumping on. However in 2009 the Rays went from 10th in MLB to 21st. Which team will he see playing defense this week?
My Outlook
I see the Sox taking two out of three against the Twins but my expectations are guarded with the Rays. Even at home if the pitching is on point, they can easily win or even sweep the series. I’ll pencil in at least one win in the four-game series but I’ll be happy with a split.
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