El Mustachio Picks the 2010 NFL Draft
My NFL draft started months ago when I suggested on a 4SportPoston podcast that the Pats should take Jason Pierre-Paul, the DE out of South Florida. Realistically, it’s not a good choice for Belichick. Pierre-Paul is more of a 4-3 DE in the mold of Jevon Kearse. In addition, the future freak will most likely be gone by the time the Pats make their first pick “scheduled” pick.
Percy Harvin = Successful draft
The NFL draft, easily the most marketable and entertaining of all sports drafts, sets the table for the entire season. Post-season predictions are based on free agent signings, trades, and rookies projected to step in and contribute immediately to already competitive teams. Last year, first rounders such as Vikings WR Percy Harvin, Jets QB Mark Sanchez, and Packers OLB Clay Matthews not only contributed, but carried weight heading into the playoffs. Other exciting rookies including Matthew Stafford, Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis, and Texans linebacker Brian Cushing reminded the league that hitting on your first round pick can result in immediate improvement and long-term championship aspirations.
On the other side of the coin-flip, missing in the top round can set a franchise back an entire decade. Watching Matt Millen miss on wide receivers year after year has been absolutely painful, even for someone who hasn’t wondered what was going on with Detroit since Barry Sanders retired. Of last year’s picks, the Falcons are wondering if they are eating the salary of a bust with their DT Peria Jerry, who spent most of 2009 on the inactive list, and failed to make key contributions while on the field. Although expectations for year two are high for San Francisco wide receiver Michael Crabtree, he didn’t put on a jersey until midseason in 2009 helping to secure tee times for his 49ers teammates in January. It’s absolutely essential your franchise have a great scouting department and a specific yet flexible game plan when they walk into the war room, or else fans may be kissing Super Bowl chances goodbye for not only next season, but seasons to come.
I admit to taking a hiatus from football at the start of the baseball season. Instead choosing to enjoy pre-season in Arizona, which I absolutely failed to report on as a 4SportBoston writer, and watching the Sox trade off days between classic heroics and complete and utter humiliation, I’ve neglected offseason NFL moves. That said, I’ll run down my impression of the most important offseason moves:
Ted Ginn Jr
San Fran gets Ted Ginn Jr for a 2010 fifth round draft pick. This one hurts the Dolphins. Not because it’s the wrong move, but because Ginn was taken 10th overall, after the Dolphins let Wes Welker walk and replaced him with Ginn. The accumulation of all those moves resulted in a few years of an underachieving wideout and a fifth round pick. For the Niners, it tells me they’re not looking to draft a wide receiver, and Ginn will make a good deep threat compliment to Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and the beast, Vernon Davis.
Brandon Marshall to Miami for second round picks in 2010 and 2011. Obviously there was a major rift between the Broncos and Marshall, and the Dolphins benefit. Who needs Ginn when you have Marshall? The loser here is obviously Denver. They’ve got two chances to make good picks to replace Marshall, but finding a playmaker at wide receiver like Marshall is unlikely in this year’s draft.
Santonio Holmes to the Jets for a fifth round pick in 2010. Did I read that right? I guess the Steelers want players who are allowed to play, as Holmes will start the year suspended for four games.
Marc Bulger cut. Hmmm…
Donovan McNabb, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson to the Washington Redskins. Parker and Johnson were free agent signings, and McNabb came over for a second round pick. The Skins are immediately a contender and out of the running to draft Jimmy Clausen with this move.
Kurt Warner retires, Derek Anderson signed by Arizona. Nobody is sure what the QB situation will be like in Arizona next year, but the worst division in football is even worse with this swap. It’s wide open in the NFC west now.
Get ready to hear from this guy some more...
LaDainian Tomlinson signed by the Jets. Running backs at 30+ tend to break down, and Shonn Greene will be upset to know he’s not the feature back as he might have expected, but cheer up Shonn, Tomlinson doesn’t play in the 4th quarter when the game really matters.
Brady Quinn traded to Denver for Peyton Hillis and two picks. This means a battle between Orton and Quinn for the starting job. Good luck fellas, I hope you can find somewhere to throw the ball. They should just play catch.
Antonio Bryant to Cleveland. He’s a good player, is Seneca Wallace the favorite to throw to him?
Finally, Anquan Boldin traded to Baltimore for third and fourth round picks. With Mason returning and Boldin now on board, this should be a terrific offense.
Thirty-five paragraphs in and I haven’t even started my projections yet! That’s okay though, because the draft starts in free agency. Decisions made in February and March help us project the decisions that will be made from April 22nd to April 24th.
Thanks to Mel Kiper’s Mock Draft Experience on ESPN, performing my own mock draft was super easy. Below are my results. Later on, real GM’s with real paychecks and real scouts will be making picks, and Thursday night, I’ll be happy to tell you why I’m smarter than almost all of them.
Here are my first round projections, almost certainly right:
Rams – QB Sam Bradford
Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh
Bucs – DT Gerald McCoy
Redskins – OT Russell Okung
Patriots (from Chiefs) – RB CJ Spiller
Seahawks – QB Jimmy Clausen
Browns – WR Dez Bryant
Raiders – OT Trent Williams
Bills – OT Bryan Bulaga
Jaguars – DT Dan Williams
Broncos – S Eric Berry
Dolphins – TE Jermaine Gresham
49ers – CB Joe Haden
Seahawks – S Earl Thomas
Giants – ILB Rolando McClain
Titans – DE Jason Pierre-Paul
49ers – OLB Brandon Graham
Steelers – C Maurkice Pouncey
Falcons – DE Derrick Morgan
Texans – CB Kyle Wilson
Bengals – OT Anthony Davis
Patriots – OLB Sergio Kindle
Packers – G Mike Iupati
Eagles – OLB Sean Weatherspoon
Ravens – CB Kareem Jackson
Cardinals – S Taylor Mays
Cowboys – OT Charles Brown
Chargers – WR Demaryius Thomas
Jets – DE Everson Griffen
Vikings – CB Patrick Robinson
Colts – OLB Jerry Hughes
Saints – CB Devin McCourty
C.J. Spiller a Patriot?
These are my first round selections. Note the only trade made, the Chiefs desperately trying to move down, and the Pats an optimal trade partner with their three second round picks. I think it will be something to the tune of two second round picks this year and our first round pick next year (note that New England has the Raiders first round pick in 2011). We’ve watched the way top running backs Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have taken over games while former first round bust Laurence Maroney struggles to find holes in the offensive line. This is the year Belicick makes the move for a big time playmaker, and hangs on to the 22nd overall pick and takes LB Sergio Kindle, a hybrid DE/OLB.
The only question left – when all my picks are wrong, how will those foolish GMs and coaches live with themselves?
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