Beasts of the East: New York Yankees
Today we come to the last part of our four-part “Beasts of the East” series. The bane of every Bostonian, the Bronx Zoo, the “Evil Empire”, that’s right ladies and gentlemen, we are looking at the New York Yankees.
Summary of 2009
After failing to make the playoffs in 2008, the first time the Yankees had not done so in 15 years, General Manager Brian Cashman went on an all out spending spree taking the top three free agents on the market. A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Texieria were signed for a combined $423.5 million. The mammoth amount of money spent on these three seemed to foreshadow that the Yankees had returned.
The season got off to a fairly mediocre start. New York played .500 ball until mid-May. Alex Rodriguez was on the disabled list for the first month, CC Sabathia and Texieria weren’t exactly living up to their price tags, everybody in the bullpen not named Rivera couldn’t seem to hold a lead, and Chien Ming Wang was absolutely getting shelled. Nick Swisher, of all people, was carrying the offense. The best part? They couldn’t seem to beat the Red Sox, losing all of their first eight meetings. But then things changed.
Suddenly Texieria was launching home runs, A-Rod returned with a vengeance from the DL, Sabathia was dominating, Phil Hughes solidified the ‘pen, and Wang was put on the disabled list. From there, we all know what happened. Even if we hate it…
Ways They’ve Improved
The first thing we have to look at is the coming of age of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. The futures of the organization made far too many headlines this spring training in their duel for a spot in the rotation. Recently, it was announced that Hughes would be in the rotation while Chamberlain would work setup for Rivera. Both have electric stuff, and both have the potential to be absolutely dominant, as they have shown glimmers of. Will they step up? Or will they forever be mired in mediocrity? All signs point to this being the season that these two young pitchers show their true colors, for better or worse.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post
The aptly named Brian Cashman also made a few very key pickups to plug a few holes in the team as well. With the departure of Johnny Damon to the Tigers, Cashman traded for Curtis Granderson to plug up the hole in left field. The speedy left handed Granderson is one of the more likeable figures in baseball and will without a doubt help the team chemistry immensely (though with Nick Swisher on your team, how much more help could you need?). His defense is quite good and he has made some fairly stunning plays in the field. Remember last year when he robbed Grady Sizemore of that home run? “AND IT’S GOOOOONNNNNEEE… no it’s not…”
He has the power numbers, hitting 30 home runs last year. The hitch is that his average has dropped consistently over the past few years, from .303 in ’07, to .280 in ’08, to .249 last year. Not only that but he seems completely incapable of hitting left handed pitching, batting a mere .183 clip against them. Jon Lester will have very little to fear from this guy. This coming year, I expect his batting average to rise a bit to .260, as the pinstripe protection will make more pitchers throw to him, and his home runs to leap to 36 (welcome to the Toilet Bowl, Curtis).
To replace the departure of Hideki Matsui, the Yankees signed Nick Johnson, who makes his return to New York after being traded to the Montreal Expos following the 2003 season. Johnson is an on base machine, with a career .402 OBP and in my opinion, will have the biggest impact on the Yankees out of the new acquisitions. He doesn’t hit a whole lot of home runs, having only knocked 8 last year, and doesn’t drive in that many runs, he hit 62, but the Yankees don’t need that. They already have a lineup stacked with home run hitters and run producers, what they need is somebody to get on ahead of those bats to be driven in. Johnson is that guy, and that spells a headache for opposing pitchers. What needs to be watched, however, is his inability to stay healthy. Indeed, the Yankees new version of JD Drew also shares our version’s penchant for the disabled list; he has played just 171 games in the past 3 seasons. If he can stay healthy, however, he could be a force for the Yankees. I predict that this coming season, his batting average will drop to .280 as he faces the dangerous pitchers of the AL East and his OBP will be around .420, but his runs scored will jump to 110 as he now has those Yankee bats to drive him in.
Ironically, not only did the Yankees sign Nick Johnson, but they also signed the man they traded him for back in ’03. Red Sox fans best remember Javier Vazquez as the man who entered the game and promptly served up a one-pitch grand slam to Johnny Damon back in game 7 of the ’04 ALCS. But he has returned to New York coming off the best year of his career in which he finished fourth in Cy Young voting. The Yankees were able to win the World Series with only 3 legitimate pitchers (sorry, but Joba and Gaudin don’t count). This was a really good signing by New York. Vazquez can strikeout the best of them and has posted 200 Ks in each of the last three seasons. He is also a horse, throwing 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons. All of us here in Boston are praying that he won’t be able handle the New York pressure and the American League bats, but after last year, I wouldn’t count on it. I don’t think he’ll crumble back to a high 4 ERA, like some are predicting, but this isn’t the Nation League any more, and he turns 34 this summer. I expect somewhere around a 3.60 with some 210 strikeouts and 16 wins. Vazquez was exactly what the rotation needed and suddenly New York’s rotation becomes a weapon to complement their lineup, instead of a liability.
How They’ve Gotten Worse
The two big hits to the Yankees here are the departures of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, both of whom had excellent seasons for New York last year. Damon had one of his best seasons last year tying a career high in homers with 24 and posting an .854 OPS. He is certainly going to miss New Yankee Stadium next year, Comerica is nowhere near as friendly. Matsui, also had one of his best years in the US, hitting 28 home runs and putting up a .876 OPS. Godzilla was also, of course, the World Series MVP, after singlehandedly winning game 6.
The question of the hour becomes can Granderson and Johnson pick up the slack? Well, given that neither of them can touch left handed pitching, I would have to say the answer is no. That said, the Yankees new pitching staff should be enough to compensate for any drop off in run production.
As a side note, Melky Cabrera also departed this offseason, giving Brett Gardner a full time job. Cabrera had several moments of late game heroics this past season and definitely helped the team reach that ring. That said, his .752 OPS won’t be missed all that much.
Finally, we go to the key weakness of the Yankees: age. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettite, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Mariano Rivera are all on the back nine this season, Jeter turns 36, Pettite turns 38, Posada turns 39, A-Rod hits the big 35, and Mariano… Well it doesn’t really matter does it? I mean, he’s more machine than man now. Well not really, but I can’t explain his longevity, can you? The point is, they are all aging, and unless they’ve found the Fountain of Youth over there in the Bronx, these guys have got to start showing their age sometime. Coming off a championship year, 2010 might be as good of a sometime as ever.
2010 Outlook
So, do they have enough to repeat? Will they win 103 games again? Should Boston just throw in the chips now? No.
The Yankees will definitely be one of the toughest teams in the league again next year, but I don’t think they’ll be as strong as last year. A whole lot went right for the Bronx Bombers last year, and most of them avoided injuries quite nicely, as well as a whole lot of career years coinciding nicely. Now it may be the new stadium, but lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. I think this may be the year that age and injury, especially with regards to Burnett who missed his annual stay on the DL last year, finally catches up with New York and they falter at least a bit.
The baseball prospectus has New York going 91-71 next year and coming in third place. I would love nothing more than for the Yankees to not make the playoffs next year. But I cannot in good conscience say that I believe it will happen. I predict that the Pinstripes will once again win the division this year, in spite of age and injury, going 96-66. Boston will take the wild card, and just like old times, we will meet them in an ALCS worthy of the history between these two great clubs.
Which of course ends with a World Series for Boston. Why not?
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