Beasts of the East: Tampa Bay Rays
Continuing our four-part “Beasts of the East” feature here at 4SB, today we will be looking at the upstarts of the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Summary of 2009
Expectations were high in Tampa for the 2009 season. Following an astonishing worst-to-first campaign in ’08, the Rays suddenly became the third powerhouse in the AL East, which was traditionally a two horse race. With expectations, however, came anxiety. Many Rays players noted a feeling of pressure to perform that had been lacking the previous year. In a team that relied heavily on its chemistry and fraternity-like atmosphere, that kind of pressure was dangerous. The season started off extremely slowly, and the team would not have a winning record until June. Never really showing the spark that the 2008 club had, the Rays would for the rest of the season be just out of reach for the Wild Card. They finished the season with a 84-78 record, good for third place in the division.
While the 2009 team was better on paper going into the season than 2008′s version, disappointing seasons from Pat Burrell, B.J. Upton, and Dioner Navarro, as well as a slew of injuries and inconsistent pitching seemed to hamstring the talent of the team. There were many bright spots, however, especially Ben Zobrist who went from a utility player, to the best player in the American League according to the Wins Above Replacement statistic favored by Fangraphs, recording an 8.6 just ahead of Joe Mauer. Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford would also go on to have great seasons. In spite of the disappointing finish, this team is still young, still very talented, and still extremely dangerous.
Ways They’ve Improved
On a team this young and this talented, there are several players on the roster that are capable of exploding and having breakout seasons. Last year, it was Ben Zobrist and Jason Barlett, next year, who knows? My thoughts are David Price, who will finally gain control of his deve arsenal, and B.J. Upton, who is far too talented to NOT become one of the elite center fielders. On top of this, GM Andrew Friedman made a few moves this off-season to address his club’s weaknesses.
Rafael Soriano
The biggest signing was undoubtedly Rafael Soriano, an excellent move designed to solidify the closer role in the Tampa bullpen and attempt to end its tradition of inconsistency. Last year, Soriano had his best season to date after earning the closer role, he posted a 2.97 ERA, 27 saves, and a mere 1.06 WHIP. He’s got talent, with a fastball that occasionally sees triple digits, and devastating slider. This, however, is no longer the NL East. Soriano will now have to deal with the bats of the American League, so expect his ERA to rise to about 3.10, and WHIP to 1.20. Now backed by the bats of the Rays, he will also record 32 saves.
Following Dioner Navarro’s extremely weak season last year (his OPS plummeted from .757 to a measly .583), it became obvious that a good back up was needed in case Navarro did not return to form. To that end, Friedman traded Mitch Talbot to Cleveland for catcher Kelly Shoppach. Shop is a familiar face to Sox fans, who remember him coming up in Boston’s organization before being traded for Coco Crisp and Josh Bard. He is excellent defensively, with a cannon of an arm and a solid glove. With the bat, he uses the whole field and has good power. Shoppach never really has been given the chance to shine on the Major league level, as in Cleveland he was backing up one of the top catchers in the game, Victor Martinez. He still had a solid season last year, posting a line of .214/.335/.399/.734 in 89 games. I fully expect Shoppach to become the Rays’ starting catcher in 2010 as Navarro will once again flounder. To that end, expect him to finally shine with a line around .250/.340/.450/.790.
Sean Rodriguez
On another note, this spring may see the rise of Sean Rodriguez, the second baseman who came to the Rays from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade. So far this spring, Rodriguez has posted the terrifying line of .453/.491/.906/1.397. I know that it’s only spring training, however Zobrist also had a great spring last year and was able to maintain that into the season. Although the Rays already have Zobrist at second base, right field also happens to be a hole in their lineup manned by Matt Joyce. At this point, there is a pretty good chance that Zobrist’s ability to play right field will allow them to play him there with Rodriguez at second. Sean Rodriguez has shown immense power and ability to hit, if he can control his strikeout total, he will be a player to watch.
How They’ve Gotten Worse
The Rays said goodbye to several players this off-season. The thing is, however, none of them really hurt the club by leaving all that much. Troy Percival, Russ Springer, Greg Zaun, Brian Shouse, Gabe Gross, Chad Bradford and Jason Isringhausen, all left, but none of them were impact players and most of them were over-the-hill, allowing the Rays to go younger.
The loss of Scott Kazmir last season was the only really punch to the club. I understand that he was struggling, but he is still only 26 and is already a two-time all star and recipient of the 2007 strikeout crown. If Kazmir can learn to be more efficient he will develop into one of the top Aces of the American league. If not, he will just have to continue being a great pitcher. One really has to wonder if that was a wise trade. Then again, if Sean Rodriguez can carry his spring numbers into the regular season, the Angels might be the one’s who got robbed in this one.
2010 Outlook
The Rays are young and only getting better. Between the two seasons, they’ve established themselves as one of the top teams in the American League. Several factors point toward them being even better this year. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are both in their contract years, and both have recently stated that they feel like the pressure is gone, and something big will happen for them this year. Evan Longoria is quickly turning into one of the best position players in the league. His numbers across the board rose his sophomore year, and should continue to rise this year. He will, in the coming years, find himself to be the best third baseman in the game given the decline of A-Rod due to age. David Price who has been described as “a taller Johan Santana” has all the right stuff to be a true ace. He’s gotten the first year in the Bigs out of the way. Get ready for this guy.
Baseball Prospectus has the Rays pegged for a record of 92-70, placing them second in the American League East, behind the Red Sox, and winners of the Wild Card. I can’t say I agree with this. While it’s also entirely plausible that they win the division, I can’t in all sincerity say I think the Yankees won’t make the post season next year. I predict the Rays finish the season with a record of 90-72, but finish in third place. That said, even if they do lose Crawford and Pena this off-season, this is a team that is going to be competitive for a long time to come. If only they could convince people to come to their games, they might gain enough payroll to compete permanently. In any case, the youngest Beast of the East is sleek, athletic, powerful, and it’s hungry.
Leave a Reply
