El Mustachio's Championship Pick'em
Broadway Joe
Welcome back to my second to last pick’em article of the year. I went against my gut in all four games in the divisional round, and how did it turn out? Two right, two wrong. What’s that mean? I’m not sure. What I am sure about is that the match-up in the NFC that I was hoping for came to pass, and I’m getting more and more excited about the match-up in the AFC. There’s fantastic history between the Colts and Jets, dating back to “the guarantee” by Joe Namath.
So welcome to Conference Championship Weekend, and I’m going to take the same approach to analyzing these games as I took to analyze the College Bowl Games. I won that pool and knew nearly nothing about most of those teams. The NFL I know, or at least pretend to know. So here it comes, the analysis I promised last week.
Just like the NFL, I’m going to start with the AFC match-up.
The Colts and Jets play at 3PM EST, (1PM Mustachio Standard Time)
In the minds of most fans outside of New Jersey, this one is an obvious bet. The Colts could have gone undefeated had they played the whole season, and the talent on this team is as good as any Indianapolis has ever fielded. I’m not in New Jersey though, and I’m not sold on the Colts as a clear victor.
For starters, the Colts are one of two teams that had the chance to eliminate the Jets prior to the post-season. As most fans know by now, the Colts rolled over like Benji in Week 16, helping Rex Ryan realize his team was not, in fact, eliminated from contention. The Bengals played a similar game against New York in Week 17, leading to a Wild Card exit for Cincinnati by guess who, the Jets. The Colts may find out now, when it really counts, that maybe they should have tried a bit harder in what appeared to be a meaningless game in Week 16.
Mustachio Matchups:
Revis & Wayne
Revis & Wayne
Reggie Wayne vs. Darrelle Revis
All year Revis has been lock down and drag out against the best wide receivers in the game. Randy Moss (twice), Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens (twice), Torry Holt, Roddy White, Chad Ochocinco (twice), Steve Smith, and ahem, Reggie Wayne. This is the list of receivers Revis has held under 100 yards receiving this season.
Last week in San Diego, they moved Revis around instead of locking him onto Vincent Jackson all game. The result: Jackson finished with seven catches for 111 yards. There are rumors Ryan will be moving Revis around again on Sunday, matching him against Dallas Clark at times. I don’t think that will happen. Wayne is the best the Colts have to offer, and Revis is capable of making this game a 10 vs. 10 match-up, while he and Reggie watch the rest of the game from their island. As Patriot fans saw earlier this season, if Wayne gets put on an inferior corner, he’ll make key plays that will eventually lead to an Indianapolis victory.
Advantage: Revis
Dallas Clark vs. The Jets linebackers/safeties
Clark vs. Rhodes
With Darrelle and Reggie on an island, Peyton’s next best friend is Dallas Clark. I’m not sure the Jets have one player who can cover Clark all game. They’ll have to disguise their coverages using combinations of Bart Scott, David Harris, Kerry Rhodes, and Justin Leonhard. Rex Ryan’s number one defense has the tools to mitigate Dallas Clark, and if they can get into Peyton’s head early, this could be a low scoring affair, tipping the scales towards New York.
Advantage: Well that depends on…
Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan
Rex Ryan has fielded the top scoring defense in the league in just his first year in New York. He proved with the Ravens that his defensive schemes are incredibly difficult to recognize and even tougher to score against. He’s also proved that he can walk in anywhere and implement that scheme in a limited amount of time.
Manning Face (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Earlier this year, I wrote the Jets off immediately following the injury to DT Kris Jenkins; even sooner than Rex wrote his own squad off. Instead of crumbling, the team found their legs and now find themselves in the AFC Championship.
Peyton Manning is… well… he’s Peyton Manning. He can take over any game and lead his team to victory. We’ve seen “The Manning Face” less and less over the past few years, and this year it was nearly non-existent. In fact, the only time it showed up was in Week 16 against the Jets, and that was only because Coach Caldwell pulled him, essentially forfeiting the undefeated season. The key for Peyton is to recognize the defense and audible to plays that will take advantage of each situation. If he does that successfully Clark, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Joseph Addai will all be able to make plays and help move the football down field without need for Reggie Wayne. If Ryan keeps Manning off balance we will see sacks, turnovers, and dropped passes.
Advantage: I think this defense is who we think they are (thanks Denny Green), and the Colts will let ‘em off the hook! I’m nervous for the Colts, because the Jets seem to have had an energy about them ever since their defeat of the Colts in the regular season. That energy is contagious on the field, and scary to opposing players, coaches, and fans. Rex Ryan will have Peyton’s number on Sunday.
Jets Offensive Line vs. Colts Front 7 Defense
This match-up is also contingent upon the Rex Ryan/Peyton Manning match-up. If Ryan wins this match-up, as I’ve predicted, the Jets will have the opportunity to run the football. In addition, an early Peyton interception or frequent early punting situations for the Colts could take the crowd out of the game.
Indy was ranked 24th in the league this year in rushing yards against, typical of a team with smaller defensive lineman such as Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Jets ranked first in rushing yards per game this season, also typical for a team starting a rookie quarterback. There’s no question that the pace of this game, as set by the Colts Offense/Jets Defense will determine how effective the Jets can be offensively.
The most important factor Indy has on its side is home-field advantage. The crowd needs to be loud early, so the sound techs can record it and put it on repeat for the entire game. When the Jets control a game on the road, it’s by playing solid defense and running the football. That means long, controlled, boring drives. Fans will be sitting on their hands, instead of cupping them and yelling through them. If the Jets can’t settle the crowd down, Mark Sanchez will struggle in this big game and his teammates won’t be able to hear him.
Advantage: Colts Front 7
Jets Special Teams vs. Colts Special Teams
Smith
This game could come down to blocked kicks, missed kicks, and long kick/punt returns for points or field position advantages. The Colts need to control this portion of the game. If they find themselves punting early, my advice is to punt high and punt far. Don’t let Brad Smith get a chance to make plays in the open field, because Indy will find themselves backed up in their own red zone trying to stop a smash-mouth football team.
One X-factor to also keep in mind, the Jets are one of the least penalized teams in the league. They don’t make mental errors in key situations, so if Bart Scott or Calvin Pace has a late hit on Dallas Clark out of bounds, you’ll know Indy is about to light up the scoreboard.
So how do I think this one will turn out? Jets go into Indy as a pit stop on their way to Miami, while Manning gets to play in the Pro Bowl next week.
NYJ 20 – IND 17
Saints vs. Vikings at 6:40PM EST (4:40PM Mustachio Standard Time)
The late game is the one most fans are looking forward to seeing. I’ve heard more than once, “I don’t care who wins, I just want to see a good game.” I think that’s exactly what we’re going to get from the Vikings and Saints on Sunday in the NFC Championship.
Favre
Favre
Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees
These are the guys we’re tuning in to see hit the gridiron. Drew Brees has had statistically dominating seasons the last three years and is ready to take the step in his career that truly places him in the same conversation as Manning, Brady, Warner, and Favre. That step is to contend for and win a Super Bowl. He has weapons at his disposal at every position, and can score from anywhere on the field on any play. He doesn’t rattle in the fourth quarter, demonstrated by the Saints leading the league in fourth quarter points. That statistic is an important one when it comes to winning in the playoffs.
Brett Favre. Yes, we’re still talking about Brett Favre. The fantastic news about the discussion is that he’s still relevant this late in his career and this late in the season. He’s arguably the best he’s ever been right now. With only seven interceptions in 2009, he’s making fantastic choices with the football and everyone around him is benefiting from him being a Viking. Whether you’re tired of hearing about Brett Favre, or he’s still one of your favorite players, you have to admit that he’s an awesome player right now and the playoffs are nothing new to Favre. In fact, he beat the Patriots in the Superdome in Super Bowl XXXI.
Advantage: Brett Favre
Colston/Meachem/Henderson/Shockey vs. Rice/Berrian/Harvin/Shiancoesain
Henderson taking off on the Pats
The receiving corps for both teams are extremely balanced. Both teams have deep threats in Robert Meachem/Devory Henderson and Bernard Berrian/Percy Harvin. Both teams have a true number one receiver, Colston for the Saints and Sidney Rice for the Vikings. Both teams have a pass catching Tight End that makes a great end zone target, Jeremy Shockey and Visanthe Shiancoe.
Sidney Rice scored three touchdowns against Dallas in the Divisional game, and has more than a few fantasy owners scratching their head about his value next year. When the Vikings faced the Cardinals earlier this year, an announcer referred to Rice insultingly as a poor man’s Larry Fitzgerald. Well, I wouldn’t call him a poor man’s anything right now, because if he performs on Sunday, he could be talked about next year as highly as Fitzgerald himself was this year.
If I had to choose a corp though, I’d have to take the Saints receivers. They are all versatile and Brees trusts all of them to make a play on any down without question. Throw into the mix Lance Moore who has been worked back into the fold after missing most of the year with injury. The best receiver is the open one, and they can all get open.
Advantage: Saints
Bush/Thomas/Bell vs. Peterson/Taylor
Peterson & Taylor
I love how the stars continue to roll out in this match-up review. Adrian Peterson has looked downright human in the second half of the season, and again last week against the Cowboys. Perhaps he’s beginning to wear down after receiving a heavy workload the last two seasons. He hasn’t broken the big plays he had earlier this year and last year.
The key for the Grape APE is that he continues to get carries and hold onto the football. No fumbling gives Favre an opportunity to make big plays in the passing game with play action, and that’s how the Vikings have been scoring points. Chester Taylor has been the perfect compliment in this running game since Peterson came to town. He is a sure handed back who makes big plays on third down and does a good job helping the offensive line when pocket protection is in order. To me, Peterson and Taylor are the best one-two punch in the NFL.
The committee in New Orleans is effective and operates just like the receiving corp. The hot hand gets the ball. Last week, the hot hand was Reggie Bush. He’s playing for the eight million he’s suppose to receive next year and taking advantage of his opportunity to perform in the playoffs. He’s regularly inconsistent, so I’m not sure we’ll see the same player on Sunday versus the Vikings.
Advantage: Vikings
Some key X-Factors to consider going into this week:
Allen (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
The Vikings have a fantastic run defense, again. The Saints could be made a one dimensional passing team, but look for them to work in some draw plays and play action to keep the Vikings off balance. This could be good news for Jared Allen, as he should be able to focus on rushing the passer, but it could also be terrible news for the Vikings secondary.
After Cedric Griffen and Antoine Winfield, the Vikes don’t have the talent in the secondary to cover all the Saints receivers plus Reggie Bush in the passing game. DE Ray Edwards, who had a great game against Dallas before leaving with a leg injury, has not practiced this week. Minnesota will definitely miss his contributions if he can’t play at full speed. They’ll have to get Brees on the ground and rattle him, which doesn’t happen easily, and will be even tougher without Edwards.
Saints safety Darren Sharper and Brett Favre were teammates in Green Bay when the Packers defeated the Patriots. That was the last Super Bowl Victory for either player and both know their careers are coming to and end. At least Sharper knows it, who knows what Brett Favre really believes. At this point, he probably thinks he could play into his 60’s. More importantly than the fact about Sharper being Favre’s teammate in Green Bay is the fact that Sharper is the biggest play maker in the Saints secondary. He needs to have a standout day to keep the Vikings off the scoreboard.
Last week it became apparent to me there was one major flaw in the Vikings defense that could and will result in a Saints win on Sunday. I hate to call out one player, especially a rookie fifth round draft pick who was thrust into his role as a result of a terrible broken leg to the starting MLB, EJ Henderson, however, Jasper Brinkley is still showing signs that he is not prepared to be the starting MLB for a Super Bowl caliber team. That position is the QB of the defense, and in the Vikings defense, needs to be a player that diagnoses plays quickly and flows to the football and makes tackles.
WHO DAT?! Super Bowl bound!
With Kevin and Pat Williams up front, for Brinkley to bite on misdirection running plays and play action the way he does could spell disaster for the Vikings. Brees will be able to manipulate him and control the underneath passing game without that inside presence. To me, this means the Saints will generate more third and short situations and be able to convert third downs at a higher percentage. In the end, that will lead to more scoring. More Saint Scoring means the New Orleans Saints will be taking a trip to Miami in Super Bowl XLIV.
Final Prediction:
Saints 34 Vikings 31
Look for a Pro Bowl Track Card next week. I’ll see you in two weeks with my Super Bowl Predictions and according to this prognosticator; the Super Bowl Extra Large Four matchup will be the New Orleans Saints versus the New York Jets.
2 Responses to “El Mustachio's Championship Pick'em”
Leave a Reply
Jets O-line is one of the best in football,
Favre and the Vikes win by 10.
Bojo
The majority of people are taking the Colts to kill the Jets this
week but you have to consider how well New York matches up against
Indy. Indy has the worst running game in the league, and is ALL
Peyton. The Jets have the #1 pass-defence and if they can put the
clamps on Peyton early… it could very well be a Jets win. TheCoach
isn’t calling a J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS win but they will cover the
spread. I know Indy shut down Baltimore’s running game last week
but the Jets strive on being quick and elusive.. something Ray Rice
isn’t…
Minnesota and New Orleans is going to be such a good game. I was
hoping all season long these two would meet up in the NFC
Championship and honestly.. either team could team this game. The
Saints are -3.0 favourites and historically home team get given three
points for the home-field advantage… so basically this game is a
pick-em and there is ONE thing that I like about the Saints and its
that home-field advantage. Last week Warner and Romo combined for 7
sacks and 4 fumbles largely in part to not being able to communicate
with their offence. The SuperDome is NUTS and I don’t care how much
experience Favre has, the crowd can help a team and also hurt the
other so much.
Feel free to check out my picks with scores (and of course
cheerleader pictures) @
http://www.lionsdenu.com/category/sports/nfl-guide-2009-2010/
Best of luck to all this week,
Regards,
TheCoach