Around The Diamond: Pitchers & Catchers
Around The Diamond is a weekly series where we will preview the team position-by-position prior to the start of the spring training.
Catchers
Victor Martinez
(AP Photo/Rob Carr)
Now the starting catcher, Martinez has always been a solid hitter. Last season, he demonstrated great plate discipline with a 1.01 BB/K ratio and 88.7% contact rate. I was most impressed with 92.8% contact rate when pitches are thrown in the strike zone. He doesn’t strike out too often and when he swings at a strike- he’s going to make contact. With his injury plagued 2008 season behind him, I expect a solid offensive season that will keep to among the top catchers in the AL. Right now Theo Epstein is working to sign Martinez to an extension, which could make him Boston’s backstop for a few more years to come.
Jason Varitek
Varitek has been an offensive liability for a few seasons and things just got worse. After a modest power surge in the first half of 2009 that saw 13 homers to go with that .239 batter average, he collapsed in the second half batting .157 with only one additional home run. Hopefully the reduction in playing time will keep his 38 year old body in better shape. He’s always been a low-contact skills hitter with a little bit more pop than average. If we are lucky he’ll continue to keep his average above the Mendoza Line.
Starting Pitchers
Josh Beckett
Beckett saw a bounce back year after being plagued by injuries in 2008. When you compare last year to his career year in 2007 the numbers look great:
2007: 20-7 / 3.27 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 194 K
2009: 17-6 / 3.86 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 199 K
As a power pitcher, he counts on his fastball but has been using his cutter more year over year. His velocity looks solid, the key for Beckett is his health. He pitched a career high 212 innings with four complete games last year, so durability might be an issue. As long as he can avoid injury he’ll be a solid piece at the top of the rotation.
John Lackey
Talking about injury, Lackey has started back-to-back years on the D/L due to a triceps injury. Prior to that he was a lock for 30 starts. His strikeout rate has been falling and he’s moving away from his fastball and using his breaking ball more often. His velocity hasn’t taken a hit although he doesn’t throw very hard to begin with. What’s also worrisome is that his control numbers have been creeping up since 2007 (BB/9 – 2007: 2.09/2009: 2.40). However, his second half numbers show that he can still pitch at a good/elite level if healthy. If his injury problems are behind him he should be a solid workhorse and innings eater, a perfect second or third slot pitcher in the rotation.
Jon Lester
Everybody’s favorite comeback story is now entering his prime. With only one less start compared to 2008 Lester racked up 73 more strikeouts (225 in 2009) and saw his K/9 rate jump from 6.5 to 9.93! His velocity is rising while WHIP is dropping. What’s even scarier is that he got better as the year went along. He still needs to work on his control but he’s an ace in the making, and is sure to out match many if put in the second or third slot.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
In my article this past fall, I highlighted everything you need to know about Dice-K: he throws too many pitches, has control issues, and is hit or miss in his starts. In his four starts after I wrote the article, we saw high pitch counts but longer outings (4 GS / 24.1 IP/ 3-1 W-L / 2.24 ERA / 20 K).
With news that Dice-K has been hiding injuries from last year’s World Baseball Classic and that he’s now in better shape than ever, things can only look up for Matsuzaka in 2010. If he can return fully healthy we could see another season like 2008, where his inefficient ways still resulted in good outings.
Clay Buchholz
(AP Photo/Rob Carr)
Why do we not like Clay Buccholz? We are constantly trying to trade him to other teams. Well it’s not that we don’t like him- it’s that he’s a potential talent that could break-out… or not. His debut in 2007 was promising and his he’s been dominating AAA.
He’s been largely hit or miss when brought up to the majors and he gives away walks and home runs like candy. He’s also a ground-ball pitcher, which puts a lot on the defense (shouldn’t be a problem given how we’ve improved on that end.) However, he threw well last September and is becoming more comfortable throwing his fastball- and throwing it hard. Buchholz needs more time in the majors- not AAA, in order to develop. The problem is whether Boston is willing to take the lumps for another quality arm, or sell him to the highest bidder.
Tim Wakefield
In April, Wakefield looked unhittable, then in May he looked very hittable. In June he looked like what we’d expect from Tim on a good day. In the second half he looked like the injury riddled Tim that always breaks down towards the end of the season. Being 43 does that do you.
Wakefield isn’t hard to scout, when he has his knuckle ball going, he can confuse batters and eat up some innings. When it’s not going, it’s going to get messy. Despite his age there’s nothing stopping him from being an effective back-end rotation guy for a couple more years. However, he is recovering from back surgery and looks to be a possible spot-starter/long relief man when he comes back.
Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon
He hasn’t been too popular with Red Sox Nation lately. His future with the team is uncertain, despite inking a one-year deal today to avoid arbitration, and some fans may still remember the blown ninth that kicked the Sox out of the post season. This could easily shade his previous season as a downer, when in reality it was more of a regression to the norm for some areas.
What I get from looking at these numbers is that he didn’t blow more or less saves than he usually does, in fact he blew less saves compared to the previous year. 2008 also stands out as a fluky year where he temporarily became a ground ball pitcher. What does concern me though is is growing lack of command as noted by his growing WHIP. He is also throwing more pitches per appearance that in previous years. All in all, Papelbon is still an elite closer but he may soon just be great.
Hideki Okajima
Okajima was offered a one-year deal to come back for another season, he’s been a great signing for us and has provided a trusted lefty for the bullpen. However a few warning signs:
- Fastball usage increasing but velocity is decreasing
- K/9 dropping and BB/9 rising
- FB% & HR/9 rising
The book may be out on Okajima, and the code may be cracked by the end of the year.
Daniel Bard
Shows a lot of promise with his fastball topping 100 MPH. However, as dominating as he can be, he is still rough around the edges with his control. Spending time up the in majors this year should help his development into a future closer.
Manny Delcarmen
The hometown hero has taken a step back in all areas last season. While some say he should be traded to get away from the distractions of playing so close to home, he actually pitches better at Fenway.
Stay tuned in on Monday, January 25th as Blaise will break down the Red Sox infield in Part II of “Around the Diamond”.
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