Bojo’s Week 16 Picks: The NFC Playoff Picture
The NFC playoff picture was just as cluttered as the AFC until this past week. Now, it is a lot simpler than its AFC counterpart by a wide margin.
Four of the six playoff spots have been clinched and the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys control their own Wild Card destiny, with the New York Giants waiting for one of them to slip up. The only thing left up for grabs in the NFC is the Wild Card, the number one seed, home field advantage between the Vikings and Saints, and the first round bye between the Eagles and the Vikes.
The Saints can clinch the number one seed and home field with a win or a Minnesota loss, after last week’s loss to the Cowboys, a check back to reality might have been just what the Saints needed heading into the playoffs. Their last two opponents are a combined 8-20.
Tampa Bay this week, which has had few bright spots besides rookie QB Josh Freeman coming off a 95.8 QB rating against the Seahawks, will try to upset the Saints. Then the Saints face off against Carolina, which has had an injury laden and disappointment of a season.
But, the Panthers are coming off their biggest win of the season against Minnesota in which they physically whooped the Vikes (Julius Peppers had 1 sack, 5 QB hurries, and benched a Pro-Bowl left tackle). Carolina could prove to be a test for the Saints, whom fans will be watching intently to see if they can clinch home field throughout the playoffs and to see if they will indeed rest their starters.
The Vikings can clinch their first round bye with a win or a Philadelphia loss, and keep a shot at the number one seed and home field as long as they win out and the Saints lose their last two games.
This should be an interesting game for the Vikes this weekend, with all the Favre vs. Childress media. Favre has always performed after being called out by the media so I expect him to continue his dominance of NFL defenses (27 TDS 7 INT 3,565 YDS and a 104.1 QB Rating, best of his career).
Minnesota plays Chicago this week and the NY Giants in Week 17. They should run over the Bears, but I’m iffy about Week 17. Carolina really exposed some weaknesses on the Offensive line, and the Giants front four is a lot better than the Panthers front four.
The Eagles have the toughest remaining schedule of any of the remaining NFC playoff teams, with games against Denver (8-6) and division rival Dallas (9-5). Philadelphia can simply clinch with a win combined with a Dallas loss. The Broncos are inconsistent but a good team and the Cowboys seem to be clicking on all cylinders. Romo is averaging 350 passing yards per game in December. Eagles and Cowboys in Week 17 is going to be the battle for the NFC EAST in my opinion.
The playoff sleeper for the second year in a row could be the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have shown signs of greatness with their 30-17 win over the Vikings in Week 13 and then showed signs of inconsistency and lack of focus with their 24-9 loss in Week 14 against the 49ers. If any team in the NFL proves that you only play as well as your QB plays, it is the Cardinals. When Warner throws one or less interceptions, the Cardinals are 9-0…
Arizona has an interesting remaining schedule. The Rams are 1-13 and seem like a no brainer win for the Cards, but then they have a potential wild card preview as they play the 9-5 Packers.
Green Bay is in the best shape out of the three potential wild card teams. With a win and a Cowboys or Giants loss, the Cheese Heads are back in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers’ MVP-like play (28 TDS 7 INT 3,962 YDS 102,4 QB Rating) has led the Packers throughout the year and you have to remember up until a couple of weeks ago the Packers offensive line was playing like a JV high school team. Rodgers has carried this team on his back and I think he can do it to the Conference Championship.
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of a huge win at New Orleans. They can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Giants loss. Tony Romo is playing out of his mind right now threading defenses with no legitimate number one receiver so the ‘Boys control their own destiny in their decisive two remaining division games. The first being Washington, which can’t be taken lightly, and the final game of the regular season against the division leading Eagles. If the Cowboys win out, they can win the division and the number three seed in the playoffs.
The long shot for the wild card is the New York Giants. They need to have the Cowboys to either lose one game or lose both of their remaining games and the G-Men to win out to make the playoffs.
With a schedule featuring the Vikings and Panthers, they face a tough test. The Giants have a plethora of talented wide-outs and Eli Manning’s play has been very good, posting QB ratings of 130.5 and 144.4 the last two weeks. If they can get into the playoffs they can be a problem for any defense.
Week 16 Picks
Green Bay over Seattle -14. The Seahawks secondary is a joke, Rodgers is going to have a fun day.
Cleveland over Oakland -3. Oakland can’t stop the run, Harrison should have another big day.
Cincinnati over Kansas City -13.5. Jamaal Charles will be a challenge for this new-identity Bengals defense.
Atlanta over Buffalo -9. Another week of rest for Michael Turner and Matt Ryan should help the Falcons.
Miami over Houston -2. The Wildcat will dominate this young Texans defense.
Giants over Carolina -8. The Giants aerial assault will dominate a weak and injured Panthers secondary.
New Orleans over Tampa Bay -14. The Saints will dominate every aspect of this game. Josh Freeman will be running away from Vilma and company all day.
New England over Jacksonville -9. Pats will win but MJD is going to have a huge day against this Patriots defense.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore -3. Big Ben still has some more magic in there, and going up against the second best defense in points per game should bring out some fireworks.
Philadelphia over Denver -7. The Eagles offense is high flying and full of weapons. Brian Dawkins returns to Philly, so watch out for some BIG HITS.
Arizona over St. Louis -15. The Cardinals will wake up this week and continue from their big win in Detroit. St. Louis just needs to keep losing and get that first pick in the draft.
Indianapolis over NY Jets -5.5. The Colts will most likely play all healthy starters like last week. The Jets and Rex Ryan will make this out be their Superbowl (just like every other week).
Washington -7 over Dallas. The ‘Boys are back and I feel bad for the Redskins, they are flying high after their New Orleans win.
Chicago -7 over Minnesota. Favre will respond as always and dominate.
El Mustachio’s Week 16 Picks
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