El Mustachio's Week 11 Picks
Jones-Drew
Like MJD, I too apologize for taking a knee at the 1 last week. In the end, like for the Jags, it worked out though. Thanks to the Foot in Mouth Queen for stepping in and writing her first ever pick ‘em article. As she only managed 5 right, I’d advise you to pick against her in the future.
Yours truly managed 8 correct last week, despite not even realizing there was a Thursday night game. I figure I would have picked the Bears anyway, so I’ll take the loss like a man. That puts me at 76-67 on the season. Subpar, to say the least.
Week 10 was certainly a week to question coaching decisions, and I’m going to just do that for the next few moments. We’ll start with the MJD/Jags dive on the one. I don’t agree with this call at all. I can understand their logic to retain the last possession, however in a game you’re losing to give up free points and attempt the field goal that really is more of an extra point is a risky decision. All I have to say is Tony Romo and playoffs. Everyone recalls his buttery fingers and the frantic failed scramble to try and break the goal line resulting in the elimination of the Cowboys in 2007. Yes, I know the percentages are high you’re not going to screw up an 18 yard field goal and yes I’m also aware that it’s not the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be prepared to put it on my kicker to put points on the board when all MJD had to do was lean forward. Wrong call that worked out right.
How about a right call that worked out wrong. Everyone has their say, so here’s mine on the BB 4th down decision. I agreed with it. What’s the difference if Peyton has to go 30 yards or 60, he’s going to get it done in that situation against that defense on that day. What I don’t understand is the playcall itself or the decisions that led up to the 4th down call. Why is Faulk running a hook route in front of the first down marker? Why not a play that at least leads the receiver forward instead of forces him to come back like a slant? If this was four down territory, and this was suggested by Bruschi, why didn’t we run the ball on 3rd down and let the clock go to the 2 minute warning, then run a 4th down play? After the kickoff to start the drive we couldn’t get our offense on the field into a play we wanted and were forced to call a timeout, why? That’s an unacceptable lapse of concentration by BB, TB and the entire Pats offense. If they don’t have that lapse, perhaps they can at least challenge the spot of the ball on that 4th down, since the spot was based on an initial Faulk bobble that he seemed to have secured prior to being pushed back and dropped to the ground. I also don’t agree with our decision to drop into base 3 and 4 man rushes in the 4th quarter. You just can’t do that against Manning. He’ll eat you alive and do it quickly. Why change up our defensive scheme into a strategy that we’ve all seen lose games in the 4th quarter over and over again. Oh well, there’s always the playoffs…
Next up, Week 11 and 2 teams still undefeated, will one go down this week? I’ll make that decision.
New Orleans (9-0) vs. Tampa Bay (1-8) +11.5
Well, no upsets here. The Saints are just too good for the basement dwelling Bucs.
NO 4,753,266 TB 3
Indy (9-0) vs. Baltimore (5-4) +1
Another tough matchup for Indy. The Ray-vens have been up and down this season and have shown flashes of brilliance lumped with flashes of mediocrity. Joe Flacco has returned to earth since his early hot flashes, but needs to rediscover it this weekend versus a Colts defense that isn’t as good as advertised and can be scored against. Indy also doesn’t have the advantage of pumping sound into the stadium (did I just accuse them of that?), so that is to the Ravens advantage. In fact, I’m doing it. I’m taking the Ravens. Go Baltimore! I don’t care that Manning can score from anywhere on the field in under 2 minutes. I think Peyton squeaked one out against the Pats, and I think the Ravens is better balanced (a la Ray Rice) than the Pats, although not as explosive; and their defense is stronger, especially in the secondary. Despite our overwhelming optimism about the futures of Wilhite, Meriweather, Butler, and McGowan, right now they’re still too easily taken advantage of by a savvy QB or a game hardened receiver. Ed Reed has the Ravens secondary where it needs to be and the emergence of pass rushing linebacker Jarrett Johnson will put pressure on an offensive line that showed an early inability to stop the pass rush, especially once Addai went down with the broken fingers. If he does play this week, look for his whole arm to be broken by the dirtiest defense in the league by halftime, and the Colts to be one dimensional once again.
Indy dies in week 11, 28-23
NYG (5-4) vs. Atlanta (5-4) +6.5
By the way, I’m listening to Wick while I write this. Just like Lyle, I should have been a rockstar by now. I heard that Tuesday night his new band played some old Wick songs. If you’re on or near the Cape the local music scene seems to be taking off into an awesome place right now. I’m actually really missing it and wish I were there to enjoy it.
Of course, that has nothing to do with football, I’m just being homesick for a few minutes. Let’s let that pass… think about going to the pool on Saturday Chris… the pool… the pool… warm weather… mmm… Arizona. Aaaaannnddd we’re back.
So I’ve said it before, I picked Atlanta to go to the Super Bowl. My pick seems to be in doubt right now given the Saints 2009 explosion as the best team in football, and more dear to my heart, the injury of Michael Turner. Turner left Sunday’s game in the 2nd quarter (with 111 yards rushing) with what appears to be an injury that could keep him out for an extended period. What’s that mean for the Falcons? Trouble, plain and simple. Matt Ryan has been struggling to get the ball to Roddy White, and losing his workhorse won’t open up any doors for the passing game. He’ll get his shot though, starting this week, to carry this team. Mike Smith better have something up his sleeve to open up the passing game against a bitter Giants team.
The Giants have lost 4 in a row. Not sure if New York is over their Yankee hangover yet, but they’ll be alive and livid if they tune in this weekend to see the G-men make it 5 in a row. The NFC East the last few years has been the toughest division in football, but the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants have all shown major chinks in their armor, while the Redskins have opted for loincloths. But for the Giants, the division is still winnable, especially after the Cowboys downright embarrassing performance in Green Bay last Sunday. The key, however, is to win conference games, starting with the Falcons.
If the playoffs started today, the Saints and Vikings would have bye weeks, Dallas and Arizona would be division winners, and the Eagles and Packers would be in the wild card at 5-4 because of tie-breakers. The 5-4 teams on the outside looking in are, guess who, the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons. If I know that, then sure as (I pre-edited this one for you Craig)… sand, both these teams know it too.
So what does that mean? It means a good football game, and due in part to a combination of a bye week, a good hardy ass-kicking (Craig don’t you dare edit that) [Editor's note: Please stop talking to me in your posts!] from Tom Coughlin, and home field advantage, the Giants are going to be 6-4 and the Falcons 5-5.
New York wins, but they don’t cover, NYG 20 – ATL 17
Green Bay (5-4) vs. San Francisco (4-5) +6.5
Honestly, I don’t even want to pick this game. Neither one of these teams can make up their mind as to weather or not they’re any good. The Packers can’t string together 2 wins in a row, while the 49ers can intercept Jay Cutler 5, count them, 5 times and still almost lose to the Bears. If your defense creates 5 turnovers in a game, and it still comes down to the wire, your offense is in a lot of trouble. So much trouble, in fact, that I have no idea who’s under center for the 49ers? Is it Smith? Is it Hill? Give me a moment while I go look it up… okay, it appears to still be Alex Smith. The Niners need an identity and need to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Even at 4-5, they’re in a position to win the NFC West, but need to make a push to do it.
Green Bay is coming off an impressive victory over the equally unsettled Dallas Cowboys, which came after an unspectacular loss to the previously entirely defeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tell me how you lose to an 0-7 team one week, then beat a 6-2 team the following week. That’s the NFL for you, and the reason I don’t get upset when I only pick 8 games right against the spread in a week. It’s also what makes this game impossible to pick.
Given all this information, I’m taking San Fran, because they’ve had an extended week (they played last Thursday) and 3 of the 5 Packers wins this year have come against St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland. Last week was a make-up game for the loss at Tampa and now they’re ready to be let back down.
Green Bay is at home, so they should be able to eek this one out, but not by 6.5. SF loses by 4, SF 24 GB 28.
Denver (6-3) vs. San Diego (6-3) even
Last time these 2 teams played, I nearly overlooked it and then went back and decided to review it. The exact same thing happened to me today. Both teams are 6-3 and tied for the lead in the AFC West. It’s very likely that only one of these teams makes the playoffs, and it’ll be the team that wins the division. Denver won the first matchup on the road during a time they were playing much better. The tables have turned though. The Broncos come into this week losers of 3 in a row while the Chargers are winners of 4 straight. That should be broken down though to see what it really means. Denver lost in Baltimore, then at home to a tough Steelers team, then again on the road versus the woeful Redskins in a game Kyle Orton couldn’t finish after he was hurt early. Taking all that into consideration it definitely drops the Broncos down a notch from where we thought they were 3 weeks ago, but it doesn’t scream the beginning to a busted season either. Chris Simms will be under center against San Diego if Orton can’t go, and that is the key factor in this game.
Now, who has San Diego beat? I asked this question last time these teams faced off and the answer was Oakland and Miami. In the last 4 weeks, since the loss to Denver, they’ve beat KC, Oakland again, NYG, and Philly. What’s that mean? I have no idea, except that the Chargers are playing well. Beating NFC East opponents with winning records on consecutive weeks leading into this game is a good sign for the powder blue that they can compete and beat the hobbled Broncos.
If you think it matters, I suggest waiting until the inactive list is posted before picking this game. Personally, I don’t think it matters. I’m going to take the hot team, and go with the Chargers. Even if Orton plays, he’ll have limited mobility. Combine that with his already below average arm and he becomes a target.
SD 27 DEN 17
Philadelphia (5-4) vs. Chicago (4-5) +3
Both these teams are headed the wrong way down a one way street. Both come in as losers of 2, but the bright side, at least for one of these teams, is that somebody has to win this game. Both teams know the deal too. It’s week 11, and it’s time to make a push for the playoffs. Philly is in right now, but could win the division. The Bears need some conference wins to help sway the tiebreakers in their direction for a wild card spot. 
I have one question, and it’s for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy. “Are you ready? It’s your turn, sooner than you probably expected.” Westbrook has suffered concussions in consecutive appearances, and if you ask former 49ers QB Steve Young what that means, he’ll tell you the end is near. A running back susceptible to concussions has no place on the field, and I for one will be sorry to see him go. I do hope he retires at the end of this season, keeping his long term health in mind. (No, that was not an intentional pun!) So is the 2nd round pick ready to be the feature back? In 86 carries this year he does have an avg of 4.1 yards per. He’s proven to be a capable receiver with 23 receptions for 181 yards as well. His biggest game of the year came in week 8 against the Giants when he had 11 carries for 82 yards including one 66 yard TD scamper once the game was out of hand. The downside to McCoy is the 66 yard TD run is his only rush over 20 yards this year. The Eagles have and will continue to be, under Andy Reid, a pass first offense. Even as a starter he will still only see approximately 15 touches per game. Based on that, I think the loss of Westbrook isn’t a huge knock against Philly.
Den dere’s da Bears. It doesn’t get any easier for them this year, and perhaps strictly due to their schedule they could be out of the playoff hunt already. They’ve still got the Eagles, Vikings (twice), Packers, and Ravens left on their schedule. The only games they should absolutely win are week 13 vs. the Rams and week 17 vs. the Lions. By then though, if Jay Cutler and company don’t right the ship, they could already be out of the playoff race with a change at head coach. Rumors this week surfaced after the loss in the bay area that HC Lovie Smith could be on thin ice if this turns out to be another disappointing season. He’s been given bye’s for years, fans and media always pointing the finger at the Bears lack of skill at the QB position. With the addition of Cutler, despite his struggles, Smith seems to have lost the benefit of the doubt. Fair or not, it appears to be the situation in the windy city.
I don’t even really want to pick this game, but I’ll take Philly. PHI 30 CHI 21
Finally, I’ll take a look at a division matchup… No, not that one…
Houston (5-4) vs. Tennessee (3-6) +4.5
So the Titans are in book 2 of a 2 part season. In part 1, their defense was blown up by everyone. Kerry Collins hadn’t played that badly since 1998 when he posted a QB rating of 54.5 (4 TD, 10 INT and a completion PCT under 50%) in 7 games with the New Orleans Saints. I didn’t even know he ever played for the Saints. Well the Vince Young era has returned, and he’s 3-0 in his return to the starting lineup. It’s probably too late for Tennessee to recover and consider a run at the playoffs, but they’re not acting that way. In reality, they only have 4 games ahead of them that are in question: Week 11 at Houston, week 12 vs. Arizona, week 13 at Indy, and week 16 vs. San Diego. However, their defense is recovering from their early season injuries, and I think this Titans team can win 3 out of 4 of those games. On an outside, they could finish this season 9-7, but more likely they’ll finish 8-8 and consider the season an outright success if that happens. In my opinion, they’re the only 3-6 team actually playing for something.
Houston is in the hunt for a wild card spot, tied with Jacksonville for 2nd in the AFC South. This division is certainly playing like they want to be called the toughest in football. When one team is undefeated, 2 others have winning records, and even the basement dweller can put together a 3 game winning streak, you know you’re in for a battle every time a division foe is in town. The Texans biggest issue is the revolving door at running back. They thought they had it solved coming into this season with Steve Slaton, but his struggles resulted in Ryan Moats receiving more carries. The only thing clear is that there’s no clear #1 running back. Despite the questions in the backfield, the Texans have won 3 of the last 4 and coming off a bye week. It’s tough to fault the Texans for a loss in Indy where they played the Colts tough and nearly came back and won.
The Titans will play spoiler to the Texans this weekend though, as they have the potential to do for a lot of teams as the playoff race heats up. TEN 34 HOU 24
As for the rest of the NFL…
Carolina over Miami +3 – Ronnie Brown is out for the season, which means the Wildcat is in trouble, which means the Dolphins are in trouble. I guess the ‘Fins are going to find out if Pat White was worth the 2nd round pick.
Dallas over Washington +11 – Dallas is embarrassed after last week, and nobody makes a better punching bag than the Redskins.
Cleveland +3.5 over Detroit – Really, gonna offer the Lions points? I know the Browns are bad, but they hung in for a half of football with the Ravens on Monday night, and the Lions aren’t the Ravens.
Pittsburgh over Kansas City +10 – yea I just can’t take the Chiefs with any # of points. No Dwayne Bowe = no passing game = no scoring. [Editor's note: Except Chambers is gonna LIGHT IT UP - says my Fantasy team!]
Minnesota over Seattle +10.5 – Rumor has it that Seattle’s entire secondary is concussed. Brett has got to be licking his chops.
Jacksonville over Buffalo +9 – The Bills are in a state of flux with a new head coach and apparently, Fitzpatrick starting at QB for a healthy Trent Edwards. Jacksonville should take advantage, and sure, I’ll say they do it by 9 points.
Arizona over St. Louis +9 – St. Louis has been playing better and staying in games longer, but Kurt Warner returns to St. Louis in a dome where he’s played very well in the past. Combine that with the fact that the Cards has played better on the road than at home this season, and these boys will be amped up and should put up some big numbers.
Cincinnati over Oakland +9.5 – The 4sportboston Survivor League has restarted, and I’m taking the Criminengals this week. With Ochocinco smothered by Nnamdi Asomugha all day, look for my boy Laveranues Coles to lead the team in receiving for the third week in a row.
And finally…
New England vs. NY Jets +10.5
I wasn’t going to contribute, but EFF the JETS I says! Rex Ryan had so much to say in week 2, and then the Jets backed it up. Well, all I’ve heard him do this week is cry. The reason? He’s a big cry baby with a lousy team. The Pats don’t lose 2 in a row, and they don’t forget. According to Tedy Bruschi, “compared to the Patriots, elephants have short memories.” As far as I’m concerned, the spread couldn’t be large enough.
NE 45 NYJ 17
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