El Mustachio Picks the Week 9 Winners
Let’s start off Week 9 with a few notes from last week. In my post, I stated the Panthers and Cardinals were playing on Sunday night. I guess I wasn’t looking at the game times, because they played an afternoon game and there was no Sunday night game. Kudos to NBC for completely backing down against the World Series. I’m sure there’s nobody outside of New York or Philadelphia who would have rather watched football than a sport whose season ended 3 weeks ago when the Sox were eliminated. Instead, NBC aired news. The entire station may as well have gone off-air a la 1950. Anyway, I guess it just goes to prove my theory about these networks not understanding their viewers.
Last week did result in some fantastic games however, and not necessarily the games we thought would be fantastic. Philly trounced the Giants (and once New York sobers up and sees what kind of teams they have on the gridiron, they’re gonna be pretty upset) and the Broncos played ‘mop’ to the Ravens cleaning lady. The Falcons/Saints didn’t disappoint, with the game coming down to a final onside kick. Saints coach Sean Payton may have had the call of the year when he dialed up a timeout just in time to see the Falcons fire an unconventional onside kick up the middle in surprise attack fashion. This could be the new trend similar to the “timeout at the snap of a field goal try” that ex Denver head coach Mike Shanahan made famous. After the timeout, Falcons coach Mike Smith elected to try a more conventional kick and somehow Coy Wire, a Falcons linebacker came through with the recovery. From there, Matt Ryan couldn’t quite get it done tossing a desperation hail mary intercepted by Darren Sharper resulting in an overall net gain for me in the fantasy league in which I have both those players.
Speaking of fantasy football, I never really throw my accomplishments in here, but I will this week. Mustachio went 4 for 4 in fantasy matchups in Week 8, despite a Tom Brady/Wes Welker bye week in a battle against the Foot in Mouth Queen.
Moving on to week 9, and I’ll be choosing my teams based on… oh let’s say the team with the most letters in its name wins! Okay, just kidding.
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati (+3)
Okay, so the Bengals did go into Baltimore a few weeks back and steel one from the Ravens. Unfortunately, the Ray Lewis armada is a revenge based franchise that most recently humiliated an undefeated Broncos team. It is possible Chad Ochocinco could get killed. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t return after halftime and is found just prior to week 11 in a dumpster 13 miles from Lewis’ home. The Bengals do have a few key factors in their favor to watch, however. They’re coming off a bye week and playing at home. In addition, Laveranues Coles has scored in the last 2 games, and could be a great fantasy flex play this week as a result of Ochocinco’s mysterious disappearance. I have no idea who to pick. It’ll come down to one key play, as it did last time these teams matched up and the Bengals came out on top. If you’re waiting until gameday to make a decision, there is one key injury to watch: Ravens DT Haloti Ngata is doubtful with an ankle injury. I’ve been saying since Kris Jenkins went down for the Jets that their season is over because the Rex Ryan defense, like most 3-4 defenses keys entirely off the DT being able to take on a minimum of 2 blockers at all times. This frees up the athletic linebackers to swarm around the football and be playmakers. Without that DT, and for the Ravens Ngata is that guy, the defense is not as effective and the Ray Lewis’ of the world don’t get to roam free. In addition, I actually think the win against Denver works against the Ravens this week. They have lost too many close games and I don’t know blowing out an undefeated team helps them improve in the close ones.
Based on these statements, I’ve actually talked myself out of the Ravens and into the Bengals this week. Let’s see how that works out
Bengals take it, 23-21 with a game winning field goal (I can’t wait to see this game since it’s played out so dramatically in my mind)
POG: Laveranues (I’ve never appreciated this name before, but now that I have to type it…) Coles 5 REC 96 yards 2 TDs
NYG vs. San Diego (+4.5)
This is the tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Giants continue to struggle while San Diego has put up 2 consecutive wins (against Oakland and KC) to help right the ship. I love when these 2 teams face each other because the media loves the whole Eli/Phillip rivalry that may or may not exist between the two players. If you’ll recall, these 2 players were swapped on draft day because Eli is a whiny little person who didn’t want to play for the Chargers because his daddy doesn’t like the owner. It went something like that anyway. Well I suppose it has worked out for the best for Eli as he has a ring, and Phillip does not. However, speaking of righting the ship, this is the week for the Giants to do it. San Diego was not impressive in their defeat of the Raiders last week and won’t be too impressive in their loss to the Giants this week. However, I’m not prepared to give the Giants 4.5 points as I think this one will be decided by a field goal.
San Diego +4.5, NYG 31 SD 28
POG: Eli Manning, 270 yards 3 TDs 2 INTs. Look for production out of the entire offense, but no one fantasy player to hang your hat on.
Philadelphia vs. Dallas (+3)
As previously mentioned, Philly did some damage to New York last week (at least in this sport), and there’s no reason to believe they can’t handle the visiting the Cowboys. Perhaps the game will be closer, but the outcome will be similar. The Eagles are all about big plays on offense and turnovers on defense. They are +12 in the turnover department, compared to the Cowboys -1. What’s that mean? Well in the NFL, if you turn it over, you lose. Now it’s not that the Cowboys have turned the ball over significantly this year, the fault in the -1 can be found with the Cowboys defense. Only 4 INTs this year does not speak to an impressive defensive scheme against a team that put up 40 last week in a division game without Brian Westbrook. This one will be closer than last week, but hey Philly fans, at least you’ve got football.
Eagles 37-33
POG: DeSean Jackson 4 Rec 117 yards 1 TD, 1 Ret TD
Pittsburgh vs. Denver (+3)
Am I prepared to stop taking Denver and the points after the shellacking they took from Cool Joe Flacco and company last week? Absolutely maybe. I’ll decide when I’m done typing this preview. The Penguins are coming off a bye week, which means they’ve had time to prepare for this game. I’m never a fan of taking a good team after a bye week. It’s just not a good idea. Troy Polamalu has had one more week to get healthy, and that means curtains for Kyle Orton. He showed he was not only human last week, but reminded us why we didn’t consider the Avalanche more than just a bottom feeding franchise at the start of the season. On the other hand, what do we think of Josh McDaniels after a loss? Coach is undefeated after a loss. To be fair though, this is his first game after a loss, so he’s also winless. So the question remains, Monday Night in Denver, who’s going to show up?
For what it’s worth, I just don’t think the Broncos have the firepower to keep up. The Steelers are an offensive team this year, and I think their defense shows up this week and creates 3 or 4 turnovers.
Pittsburgh goes on the road and sends Denver into a tailspin, 27-17
POG: Troy Polumalu! 1 INT, 1 FF, 8 TAK and 657 reckless dives into piles as if he’s not recovering from a major knee injury
So those are the games I considered worth analyzing. Sorry to folks who were looking to read about why I’m picking the Pats for the 8th week in a row, but what’s the point?
Here are the rest of my picks
Atlanta over Washington (+10)
Chicago over Arizona (+3)
Indy over Houston (+9)
New England over Miami (+10.5)
Green Bay over Tampa Bay (+9.5)
KC (+6.5) over Jax
New Orleans over Carolina (+13.5) – Little tidbit about this game, Carolina has the best pass defense and New Orleans has the best pass offense in the league. If Jake “is he still our quarterback?” Delhomme weren’t such a foul up, and New Orleans defense didn’t lead the league in INTs, this game would be closer than the 13.5 spread. Well, Jake is a foul up, and the Saints D does lead the NFL in INTs, so go Saints.
Seattle over Detroit (+10) – put this game in the category of “things I couldn’t care less about”
San Francisco over Tennessee (+4) – San Fran gave Indy a run for their money last week, so don’t expect Chris Johnson to run for another 200 yards this week.
Good luck to everyone in your own leagues and I hope you do better than me, because well, I’m just not very good at all, even if meaningless Falcon field goals do beat the spread! Mike Smith works for me now!
LW 8-5
Season 62 – 53
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