Fantasy Aftermath: Back to Work
Welcome to Fantasy Aftermath, where every week I give you my take on the week in football from a Patriots fan view, and I brag/complain about my own fantasy teams.
If you forgot that Tom Brady and crew had a week off, and you left him on your fantasy team line-up you can at least feel good in knowing he scored more points than Matt Moore. Now that the Patriots are rested after their trip to London, the team faces a tough stretch of games that include the Dolphins, Jets, Saints, and Colts. Besides the fact there are key division match-ups in the next five weeks, the Jets, Colts and Saints are in the top half of NFL total defense (and Miami is not too far behind either.) What does this mean when it comes to the Patriots you may own on your fantasy team? Not a whole lot.
When you look at your fantasy match-ups you have to consider not just the strength of the opponent, but the talent of your players. Brady, Moss, and Welker are elite players at their positions, and while there maybe the chance that anyone of these players could get shut down over the next five weeks; there’s also a chance they will still manage to be productive- that’s why they are your studs. Brady is returning to form and that means good things for not only him- but Moss and Welker as well.
Laurence Maroney on the other hand is not one of these elite names. Even though current injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris has given L-Mo the opportunity to carry the rock, this team is still a pass-first offense and Maroney hasn’t shown elite talent besides the dancing he does behind the line. Now even though the Patriots like to pass the ball, it doesn’t mean they aren’t good at running it- as a team they are averaging 4.1 yards/carry. However role players like Kevin Faulk and the law firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis will keep L-Mo from ever carrying the ball 20+ times- the number of times he’d need to become any sort of fantasy relevant. If the match-up is good or if the weather turns bad at game time, he maybe an interesting flex-play but I believe he’ll never be anything more than that. He’s long removed from the potential we saw in 2007.
Patriots Pride
Without a game to recap this week, I thought I would take a look at the upcoming match-up with Miami at Foxboro this Sunday. No matter how good the Dolphins are in a given year, they always play the Pats hard and history backs that up. In 14 career games against the Dolphins, Tom Brady has only averaged 174.8 yards per game- his second lowest career split (the lowest? The Detroit Lions!) We also know that this Dolphins team is a completely different team compared to years past, but does this mean you bench Brady? Hell no. If you own him, he’s your stud and while he may only get a 1-2 TDs and an interception this Sunday, he could also throw six TDs like he did week 7 of 2007, also the pass will be a key factor against the Dolphins, who rank 21st in the NFL against the pass.
Even though the splits look tougher for Brady, his receivers appear to do quite ok against the ‘Phins. In 7 career games against Miami, Randy Moss has scored 8 TDs and averaged 78.1 yards/game. Wes Welker has a TD and averaged 90.5 yards against his former team; paired with the fact he has 4 TDs in his past 3 games- I love him as your WR2 this week.
Do you know who leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns? It’s actually a three way tie between Moss, Welker, and Tight-End Ben Watson. However Watson doesn’t get a lot of receptions but he’s too dependent on touchdowns to play a role on your team- something we can’t really predict so I say stay away.
On the Miami side of the ball there’s not a whole lot of players I’d start, the Patriots are 5th in the NFL against the pass and 15th against the run. What’s interesting is that even though they give-up an average 4.5 yards per rushing carry, they only have 1 rushing TD scored against them. How Miami runs their Wildcat offense is key to the rushing game (and the game overall) will Ronnie Brown repeat his 6 TD game against New England last year? Or will he be contained the same way the Jets did against Miami this past week? He’s the only player I’d really look at since he’s used in both the traditional and Wildcat packages. His teammate Ricky Williams also deserves a look due to the Wildcat but he’s also a hard to predict play.
The running game is the only thing Miami has going for them, Chad Henne looked great against the Jets earlier this year but he’s since returned to earth. His receiving corp is an ugly mess, with rumors flying that the Ted Ginn Jr. experience maybe coming to an end (Editor’s note: At least on the offensive side of the ball but he did have 2 KR for TDs this week vs. NYJ) and the return of former Dolphin Chris Chambers could be in the works.
Reading The Box Scores & Watching The Highlights
When I see the Ravens score 30 points against the Broncos, I was hoping Joe Flacco would get a piece of that action. However 3 field goals, 1 special teams TD, and 1 rushing TD later Flacco turned out to be a bad choice I made between him and Donovan McNabb (more on that later.)
I appear to be wrong about the Ray Rice/Willis McGahee tandem, McGahee hasn’t done much as of late while Rice continues to produce.
Moats
In regards to the benching of Steve Slaton, coach Gary Kubiak said that Slaton will still be involved in next weeks’ game- but with Ryan Moats’ breakout performance where he rushed 126 yards and scored 3 TDs, we don’t know Slaton’s future for sure. Obviously Moats becomes the top pickup this week, and he’s earned more time- but I would want to know more about the time-share before I play him.
T.O. got in the end zone after an end-around running play, you can continue to ignore him for the rest of the season.
Welcome back Matt Forte, after the first rounder caused headaches with his dismal play, he breaks out for 90 yards rushing and 2 TDs against Cleveland. Now that “he’s back,” it’s time to sell him- he is facing a tough schedule from here on out. The problem is that will be that most people will see that schedule- so it maybe hard to sell him at full value.
Here’s a really crazy idea: Jamal Lewis ran only 69 yards over 16 carries against the Bears, but the 4.3 average isn’t too bad. His schedule has some nice match-ups ahead and we know the passing game is a mess. Am I saying he’s an interesting buy low? Maybe if you only have to pay a bag of peanuts for him- he could be an interesting guy for bench depth down the line.
Marion Barber got in the end zone against Seattle but Felix Jones ran for a better average over less carries- I say Barber still the guy you want but it’s not getting any easier to say.
I’ve been a Nate Burleson fan, mostly because he appears to be the only guy Hasselbeck wants to throw to. He was targeted 12 times and is 6th amongst Wide Receivers in targets this year. He makes a great upside guy in your WR2/3 spot.
Both Miles Austin and Roy Williams were targeted 7 times by Romo, but Austin did more with his receptions- he’s clearly the #2 WR option there with the chance to become the top receiver soon.
With Leon Washington out for the season, we all looked to see what Shonn Greene was going to do with more playing time. The answer was not much as Thomas Jones got 27 carries for 102 yards.
Chad Henne was sacked 5 times in the game, which makes me feel good if the Patriots can bring the pass rush this weekend.
Remember what I said about Ted Ginn? His stat line was 0 catches for 0 yards. He’s pretty much dead to the world. (*)
Another new running back situation people were watching was who would step up in Indianapolis after Donald Brown went down with a shoulder injury. The answer? Joseph Addai, he carried the ball 20 times and only Chad Simpson got another touch in.
Michael Crabtree followed his debut performance last week with a 6 catch/81 yard game. He led the team in targets and might turnaround my opinion that he was going to be a holdout washout.
Just because Peyton Manning didn’t throw a TD pass doesn’t mean Reggie Wayne would go without one. Wayne caught 12 passes for 147 yards, including a TD pass from Joseph Addai.
Vernon Davis is quickly looking like he’s for real now, it’s about time.
LeSean McCoy proved my theory from last week: LeSean McCoy = Correll Buckhalter = Brian Westbrook
More on Eli’s annual cooldown, his monthly splits:
September (11-6): 60.7% Completion/29 TD/ 14 INT
October (16-4): 55.6% Completion/32 TD/18 INT
November (9-10): 55.5% Completion/25 TD/28 INT
December (10-13) 53.1% Completion/22 TD/21 INT
Baby it’s getting cold outside.
McNabb threw for 240 yards and 3 TDs against The Giants, to which I’d be thrilled… if I didn’t bench him for Flacco. Damn you Flacco.
Keep an eye on the Detroit running situation, while it looked like Kevin Smith was the guy to get the Lions’ share of the carries, Maurice Morris looked more productive and carried the ball 14 times compared to Smith’s 16. See what happens to the time-share this week. However with Calvin Johnson out, Smith got more work in the passing game so he does provide some additional value there.
You see LT score 2 TDs and you think he’s back? I see the 3.1 yards per carry and stay skeptical.
I passed on picking up Vince Young as a bye-week replacement on 1 league and chose Ryan Fitzpatrick instead. Too bad I made that choice, VT had a decent game running and passing the ball, but more importantly he didn’t make any mistakes. He’s now 20-12 in regular and post season games he’s started.
MJD is a beast. That’s all I have to say.
Brett Favre is becoming more and more fantasy relevant with the 4 TDs he threw against his former team. This is what we need, more attention placed on Brett Favre. In the same game Greg Jennings made an appearance with 88 yads and a TD. However both him and Driver got double digit targets- they will both be involved in the passing game.
Kurt Warner five picks against Carolina, and Jake Delhomme manages NOT to top that number, so disappointed in Delhomme.
I Rock At Fantasy Football
Sometimes you have to sacrifice one league for another, in last night’s Falcons/Saints game I was behind one of my leagues with both Roddy White and Micheal Turner left to play. As Roddy White caught a TD pass from Matt Ryan, I pulled ahead but also fell behind in the Fantasy Football Librarian league where I was playing against a team that owned Ryan. So after Week 8 I went 4-1 in my leagues, including a win in the 4 Sport Boston league.
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