El Mustachio's Week 6 Picks
Welcome back friends and loved ones for Week 6 picks! Change of plans this week. I refuse to pick the likes of Raiders v. Giants anymore! Although it was my most successful pick last week – if you’ll recall (I know you won’t, so I’ll recall for you), I picked the Giants to win with a 15.5 point spread with Ahmad Bradshaw lighting up for 176 total yards and 2 TDs. Well, the result of the game was NYG 44 OAK 7. Ahmad Bradshaw finished with 165 total yards and 2 TDs. Despite myself, I still managed to leave him on the bench in multiple fantasy football leagues. I should really listen to myself (says the guy who started David Garrard and his mammoth 188 yards and 2 fumbles lost last week to fill in for Aaron Rodgers bye week).
In any event, I’m going to only analyze games worthour valuable time. I’ll give you my picks for the rest of the matchups as well, but it’ll keep us from me having to choose Bank of America Stadium as the most valuable player. Another bad example perhaps since the Redskins v. Panthers game ended in exciting fashion with a major Panther comeback and victory. But who could have predicted that?
Well off we go, another Bill Simmons wannabe pick ‘em article. Actually, screw it. Just go read Bill Simmons, I steal all his picks anyway. Favorite listed first. Home team in Bold!
Minnesota (5-0) v. Baltimore (3-2) 3pts
The case for Minnesota:
I love this matchup. Adrian Peterson, who leads the league in fumbles since joining the league versus the murderous Ray Lewis and the #4 rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 76 ypg on the ground this season. Baltimore has forced only 5 fumbles this year, but even without psychotic ego-maniac Rex Ryan leading the D (by the way ((I was about to say “btw“, but then I pictured myself as a teenage girl (((I’d be a terribly ugly teenage girl))) and I don’t want to be a teenage girl)) did you catch Rex Ryan’s post game interview after the loss to the Dolphins Monday night? A total afterthought that perhaps Miami prepared better for the game and even played better in the game andcould even be the better team. Miami, the winner of the AFC East last year. I don’t know if they did it on purpose, but the Jets organization brought in a head coach New England can hate more than Eric Mangini.) Did you catch all that? Rereading that last statement, it was an incredibly long run on sentence as a result of all these ridiculous parenthesis that I’m going to leave in.
Let’s back up, shall we: Even without Ryan leading the D, I fully expect Baltimore to cause some turnovers in this game. The upside for the Vikings offense is the Baltimore pass defense has been a hollow shell this year. Ranked 26th in the NFL, sandwiched between the Rams and Lions, is nowhere you want your team to be in any stat category. If the Vikings can hop on Brett’s shoulders, with big games from Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and my favorite NFL rookie Percy Harvin, the Vikings can pull this one out.
Joe Flacco
The case for Baltimore:
Out of nowhere, Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense is sensational. I remember for years people would say Ex-Ravens head coach Brian Billick was an offensive guru. I don’t know what these experts who told me that were thinking, because 2 years into John Harbaugh’s NFL coaching career, he’s got himself an offense that is the envy of 28 teams. They’re ranked 5th only behind Dallas, NYG, New Orleans, and Indy. Wow, Dallas is first? I really didn’t see that coming. Anyway, more on that later…Maybe. Even with an improved offense, we’re still talking about a matchup against the Vikings sack & turnover happy defense (18 sacks, 6 recovered fumbles, all caused by Jared Allen.) It’s tough to believe the Ravens will get out of this game without making a major mistake that will put points on the board for Minnesota.
Time to settle the bill:
I want to pick against the Vikings because they are undefeated. How long can this go on for? Unfortunately, that’s not a good enough reason to pick against the better team at home.
Mustachio leaves a tip: Vikings win 24-20
Player of the Game: Brett Favre 220 yards, 3 TDs 1 INT
New Orleans (4-0) v. New York Giants (5-0) 3pts
You have to love the names in this game too. Brees vs. Manning, Bush/Thomas vs. Jacobs/Bradshaw, Colston vs. The-used-to-be-the-other-Steve-Smith! How exciting for everyone involved! You have to love being Jeremy Shockey right now too. Kicked out of New York for being a total D-Bag, now finally playing up to his potential in New Orleans with a great opportunity to rub it in the Giants face that although he can now catch footballs, he’s still a D-Bag!
The only thing I know in this game is that it will be a shootout. Saints games always are. Fortunately for the GMen they, unlike most teams, can keep up. The best bet for New York is to control the ball with their running attack and hope andpray they can find a way to sack Drew Brees. Not sure if you’re aware of this, but Drew Brees does not get sacked. He’s only been sacked 4 times this year. New Orleans needs to just play their game to win. Score a ton of points andhope for a few big turnovers. Darren Sharper, though he turns 163 years old this week (I don’t see ESPN singing him a birthday song like they did for Brett Favre last week, btw!), has found the fountain of youth. Great stat: Sharper is second all time in pick-sixesonly behind Rod Woodson. Eli Manning, like Brees, is equally difficult to bring down. He’s only been sacked twice. Silly stat here: Peyton and Eli combine for 4 sacks, the same as Brees and16 fewer than Aaron Rodgers, who leads the league in the getting smacked in the mouth category with 20. Worst stat to lead the NFL in, just ask David Carr. Eli could do that, since they play together. I imagine the conversation would go something like this:
Carr: Ya know I was a first round pick once too. If I didn’t get sacked 6246 times in my first 3 seasons I could be a starter in this league.
Eli: Shut up David, you work for me now. Get back on the bench towel boy, no one gave you permission to speak to me. We’ll call your number if and only if we’re winning by 50 and my ankle hurts.
Damn that Eli, he’s so hard on poor David.
Anyway, Saints win 38-31, because I just demonized Eli Manning and want him to lose.
Player of the Game: Drew Brees 324 yards, 4 TDs 0 INTs
Other Key Fantasy predictions: NYG: Steve Smith 122 yards 2 TDs, Brandon Jacobs 73 yards 1 TD, Ahmad Bradshaw 110 Total yards 1 TD, Eli Manning 278 yards 2 TDs 2 INTs. NO: Pierre Thomas 84 total yards 1 TD, Marques Colston 110 yards 1 TD, Jeremy Shockey 62 yards 1 TD
Atlanta (3-1) v. Chicago (3-1) 3.5 points
I’m pumped for this week’s Sunday night matchup. It’s lined with stardust from the likes of Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. In addition to the stalwarts, you’ve got an up and coming Falcons defense led by Jacksonville castaway Mike Peterson and 2nd year sensation MLB Curtis Lofton. Factor in the year in, year out strength of Lovie Smith’s defensive scheme plus the exciting playmakers Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, and we’re in for a fantastic game.
Anyone who watched the Falcons semenate (Editors note: Not a word) all over the 49ers last week has to see what I predicted before the start of the season (for the record, I picked the Falcons and Patriots in the Super Bowl this year). This team is for realz. Roddy White finally broke out of his shell with over 200 yards receiving. The Bears will be watching that game film andthe absolute dismantling of what was considered an impressive San Francisco defense, and Lovie Smith might just quiver a bit.
Michael Turner (Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images North America)
The special teams advantage has to go to the Bears however. Johnny Knox has taken a page out of the Devin Hester playbook on kick returns, though if you ask me Hester should still be returning kicks as his only real job. Nobody asked me though, so I guess he’s a “wide receiver” now. I dare him to catch a deep pass this week. His longest reception of the year is only 26 yards. For a guy with the kind of speed he has, and a QB who can surely hurl the rock, that is an unacceptable situation for Devin Hester. At this point in his career, rookie Knox is a better option at wide receiver and kick returner than a Hester. Okay, I’m done beating on Hester.
Atlanta will run the ball, control the clock, keep the defense honest with the play action pass, and 60 game-minutes later leave the stadium at 4-1.
Mustachio picks the home team again, in a game that isn’t as close as it initially appeared to be:
Atlanta 31-17
Player of the Game: Michael Turner 130 yards 2 TDs
San Diego (2-2) v. Denver (5-0) 3.5
And I’m only going to pick one more game this week, andit is Monday night’s battle in the AFC west. I wasn’t initially interested in this game, until I realized that the Chargers were favored to win. Can you believe that? Personally, I can’t. Vegas is going to give me the 5-0 Broncos plus points? They’ve pulled off stunning defeats of Dallas andNew England plus a miracle win over the Bengals in week 1 on the deflected pass caught by Brandon Stokley. You don’t mess with a team that wins games like this. It’s exciting and it’s downright lucky! Break it down though, not only havethey pulled off fantastic last second heroics against 3 good teams, the more important factor is they’ve dominated the teams they’re supposed to dominate if they are truly a playoff caliber team. Denver beat Cleveland 27-6 and Oakland 23-3. They’re allowing less than 9 points per game, so I suppose their defense is legit. I’ll take the Broncos plus points all season.
On the other hand, we have the San Diego Chargers. They’ve lost games to the Ravens and Steelers, barely notched a W against the Raiders in week 1, and beat the Dolphins in week 3. That begs the question, who have they really beaten? The Raiders and Dolphins have a combined record of 3-7. Once again the Chargers are getting credit before accomplishment. It’s about time they step and prove they’re in it to win it, and this is a must win division matchup.
You already know where Mustachio stands on this one: Denver 27-20
Player of the Game: Brandon Marshall 12 Rec 143 yards 2 TDs
Notable Potables: Watch out for Knowshon Moreno this week, he could get on the scoreboard and put up some heavy yardage.
El Mustachio making his picks
The rest of my picks go like this:
Cincy over Houston +5
Detroit +13.5 over Green Bay
Pittsburgh over Cleveland +14
Carolina over Tampa Bay+3.5
Kansas City +6.5 over Washington
Jacksonville over St. Louis +9.5
Philly over Oakland +14
Seattle over Arizona +3
New England over Tennessee +9.5
NYJ over Buffalo +9.5
And those are my picks for Week 6! LW 7-7
Until next time, your friend and mine, El Mustachio
2 Responses to “El Mustachio's Week 6 Picks”
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El Mustachio my retirement is riding on your picks! Don’t fail me!
I’m thinking the Vikings are going to have real challenge from the Ravens and when the game is over – the Ravens will win.