ALDS Preview and Prediction
Here we are again. The cold fall breeze is starting to chill eager New Englanders as the month of October creeps day by day. The days are getting shorter, the crunch of leaves are heard anywhere you go, and it’s the only time we are spoiled with events covering all FOUR of our major Boston sports teams.
But one team, one sport, one group of men will rise above each October and steal the spotlight from the Patriots no matter their record or QB rating, the Celtics who are trying to prepare for another hopeful banner raising season, and the Bruins who are on the ultimate quest for the cup. It is quite a feat to rise above these 3 teams in the year 2009 but one team stands ready and willing and that team is YOUR 2009 BOSTON RED SOX!
This season has been one of MANY ups and downs for this club and its fans.
- We saw Big Papi at an all-time low for the first two months of the season and as he started to return, the steroid talk started and he was listed as one of the 104 names on the 2003 report from which he emerged to hit 28 homeruns with 99 RBIs on the season.
- We saw a pitching staff go from the most talked about in Spring training due to the amazing depth to a staff in despair as nothing seemed to work out and we were basically down to 2 solid starters.
- We saw a starting 9 that was plagued with holes (most notably at shortstop and catcher) get filled with promising veterans who have quickly become hometown favorites.
But through everything this team has been through, they have emerged stronger and better than ever.
(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Heading into the postseason, the Sox are looking like real contenders and possibly the only viable option to take down the Yankees in this 2009 postseason.
Looking toward the ALDS, the Angels are a team on a mission this year since the tragedy in April that took the life of their young pitcher, Nick Adenhart, only hours after the first start of his rookie season. This team has been banded together by tragedy and seem to have full realization on what would be the perfect way to end this season of tribute to #34.
Unfortunately for them, they are in the American League. Generally, any team not named the Red Sox or Yankees can assume they will face one of those teams in the first round of any playoff year and probably see the other in the ALCS.
“If it happens once, shame on you. If it happens twice, shame on me.” Well, what the hell happens when it happens a third time?! Or a FOURTH?! The Angels and Sox have met in the ALDS in each 2004, 2007, and 2008. The Sox, of course, have emerged from those three series with an incredible 9-1 record and two of those series, once again of course, ended with World Championships being brought back to Beantown.
Here is a nice statistical breakdown of these two teams in 2009 provided by BostonRedSox.com:
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This Angels team seemingly has it all with very few weaknesses. In fact, maybe the only chink in the Angels’ armor is their bullpen which is capped off with the owner of the most saves in MLB this year, Brian Fuentes. However, Fuentes also had 7 blown saves and a 1-5 record to go with his 3.93 ERA playing in a division that boasts the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, and Texas Rangers. Other bullpen options being brought to the ALDS are: Kevin Jepsen, Darren Oliver, Matt Palmer, Jason Bulger, and Ervin Santana.
The Red Sox bullpen underwent a quick bout with unsteadiness but as long as they leave Delcarmen off the roster (sorry Manny), they should be in good shape. Having Oki, Wagner, and Pap as your first options heading into the final 1/3 of any game will put smiles on the faces of any fan base.
- Image provided by Boston.com
The starting situation will have the Angels bringing John Lackey to the hill for Game 1 vs. Jon Lester, Jered Weaver in Game 2 vs. Josh Beckett, Scott Kazmir in Game 3 vs. Clay Buchholz, and they plan to bring out Joe Saunders in Game 4 vs. what would probably be Lester’s second start in the series.
These match-ups will definitely allow for some interesting baseball, especially against these two powerful, offensive clubs.
In 6 games at Angels’ Stadium this year, the Red Sox are batting .245 with 7 HR, 22 RBI, 22 BB, and 45 SO with a 2-4 record. In these same games, the Angels batted .288 with 6 HR, 31 RBI, 25 BB, and 29 SO. We must remember, however, that neither Victor Martinez nor Alex Gonzalez were on this team during any of the games in LA which makes a world of difference.
In 3 games in Boston this season, the Sox are batting .283, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 11 BB, and 21 SO with a 2-1 record and Martinez and Gonzalez on the club. In these same games, LA batted .277 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 7 BB, and 23 SO.
- Reuters
LA is bringing 3 catchers to the series led by Mike Napoli, however, according to Fire Brand of the AL, they will be starting Jeff Mathis in Game 1 catching Lackey. The Red Sox situation at catcher is one that has been an ongoing story since the trade deadline. Victor Martinez, who was in the process of being moved from a semi-regular catcher to full-time first baseman in Cleveland, has been moved to being a full-time catcher here in Boston leaving Captain Jason Varitek a forgotten soul besides the sporadic game V-Mart plays first.
As for the infield positions, the Angels will display one of the most dynamic infields in baseball this year. With 1B Kendry Morales, 2B Howie Kendrick, 3B Chone Figgins, SS Erick Aybar running the infield, there’s little margin for error on either side of the ball. All 4 of these men are elite athletes both at the plate and in the field. Morales has had an amazing year taking over at 1B with the departure of Babyface Teixera, Kendrick is one of the best 2B in the game, and Figgins and Aybar are two of the fastest men in baseball and constant threats to steal.
The Red Sox infield will of course show 1B YOUUUUUK, 2B Pedroia, 3B Lowell, SS Gonzalez. The right side shows a ton of strength with some questions on the left side when you look at them beyond this past month. Lowell has been very streaky this year but how can you not be streaky when you an aging veteran whose playing time is being decided on a day-to-day basis? Gonzo has been solid since he put on the Sox uniform so only the same is expected here in crunchtime. YOUUUK has been pushing his way through this season as the real Captain of this club. Sorry ‘Tek fans but in this new day in age, Captains play daily and YOUUUUK is the man for the job. (And his beard is incredible.) He plays wherever they need him day-to-day and with Kotchman as a backup 1B, YOUUUUK adds a lot of stability to that left side going forward. Pedey has a newborn at home so he is probably sleeping a lot less but we expect him to be throwing the thunderstick and continuing with his great defensive moves into the 2009 playoffs.
The Angels in the outfield are LF Juan Rivera, CF Torii Hunter, RF Bobby Abreu. Hunter is the ultimate competitor and has challenged his own team at times this season to step up and play to form. Rivera has had some very impressive streaks this season and Abreu is well aware of what it means to be playing Boston at anytime of the year.
As for our Red Sox, the advantage has to be swung in our favor here. With LF Jason Bay, CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and RF JD Drew in the outfield, you cannot go wrong. JayBay had a cooled off period midseason but otherwise has been impressive heading into a free agent offseason. JD has been on fire lately including a 2 homerun game this past weekend and don’t forget his impressive grand salami in 2007 in LA. Jacoby might only steal 23 bases in this series but he will do it with a smile on his face, 70 on the year is nothing to sneeze at.
The DH situation has been questionable at one time or another for each of these teams this year. Papi emerged from his early struggles and steroid scandal with a powerful season in the end. Finishing off with 28 homers and 99 RBIs but working with a struggling .238 Avg on the year. In 100 games for Vladi Guerrero this year, he had 15 HR, 50 RBI, and a .295 Avg. Not saying anything but this was a guy who won the 2007 Home Run Derby.
The coaching situation between these clubs have not changed from the series in 2004 to this week. Nothing about the way the team is run has really been revamped, just the names and faces have been changed to protect the identity of the losing team. Tito Francona plans to stare across the diamond at Mike Scoscia with glee as Mikey continues to see how many ways he can stretch his eyelids to their maximum potential.
The fan base and homefield advantage is a huge factor here that many bloggers / stasticians / beat writers will note in their previews but none takes it more to heart than 4SB. We have chronicalled the Sox road woes and home hoorahs since their return from their first West Coast swing and we know what they are offering. Generally, they suck on the road, even worse on the West Coast, and rule the ground at the Fens. Whether it be the towels swirling around with the other teams home colors (“Damn that red!… Wait, that’s our color too!”) or the S-T-U-P-I-D “rally monkey”, something generally gets into this teams heads when playing in LA, but less so in the playoffs. This may be a factor in the series coming up… or will it?!
At this point you are probably ready to say, “Craigga… c’mon dood… what’s your prediction? Who do I put my $1,000 down on going into this series?”
Well, let… me… tell… you.
Red Sox in 5 games. I even asked my YOUUUUK bobblehead and he just keeps on agreeing.
“WHOA! Sox in 5?! I would have taken your homer ass for a 3 and out kinda guy, maybe even 4…”
No. And here is why.
Looking at these matchups and knowing these two teams I can only believe that there will be some haste coming into the series. The Sox road woes will be a factor and I fully expect these teams to split the first two games in LA.
Game 3 worries me the most. My biggest issue with the Red Sox rotation going into the ALDS lies with Buchholz as the 3rd starter. First of all, Dice-K has been here and done this whole playoff thing before, not to mention the world stage at a little event called the World Baseball Classic.
Over the last 30 days of the season, with Dice-K returning in the 2nd week of September, their statistics have matched up like this:
- Image provided by Projo.com
Buccholz: 6 Games, 3-1 record, 3.89 ERA, 34.2 IP, 31 H, 15 ER, 7 HR, 1 HBP, 10 BB, 29 SO
Matsuzaka: 4 games, 3-1 record, 2.22 ERA, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 1 HBP, 12 BB, 20 SO
Look at those numbers and tell me Dice-K shouldn’t be starting Game 3… AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT THIS! Not to mention my other big issue with this is that ALL season, Clay had serious issues with nervousness about getting bases stolen on him. He was throwing to first no matter what as long as he had decided to do so before lunch that day. This Angels team has some serious baserunners and a trigger-happy pitcher does not always equal good things in that situation. Not to mention Dice-K is a top notch defensive pitcher with numerous gold gloves in Japan.
But I digress (write your local Senators and reps!).
Just as they have all season, I fully expect Lester and Beckett to do what they have done all season and be the standard bricks in the Red Sox organization. These two have held things together as everything else fell down around them at times this season and I fully expect them both to bring this team back to the ALCS again in 2009.
Big thanks for Fire Brand of the AL for their post on the Angels playoff roster for info used in this post.
Related Posts
3 Responses to “ALDS Preview and Prediction”
Leave a Reply
I will be concerned if the Red Sox don’t take it in 4. That trip back to LA would be very tough. Also – I think it might be Dice-K going in game 4 and then Lester would be back on the mound for game 5. I might be wrong about that, but I thought that was how it was going to line up.
I think you are right Julia. I would honestly prefer to have Dice-K go in Game 3 and see Lester again into game 4 to be honest. I think it’s too precautionary thinking about reserving the big 2 going forward without know we will get out of the ALDS in the first place.
What makes me officially nervous about all this is the shocking play of YOUR Boston Red Sox on the road. Based on that you have to be pulling for a split out there. If the Sox lose tomorrow and Lester gets hit like he did against the Yanks prior to being hit on the knee then be prepared to duck. With the up & down season Beckett has had I’m laying it all on the first game. They win, then they will win the series. They lose and its the Angels in 5.
Sulldog